Prior to the 2017-2018 college basketball season, the vast majority of basketball fans had never heard of Trae Young, and the Oklahoma Sooners were not listed among the top 25 teams in the country. Just two months later, Young is the consensus National Player of the Year and, even after a road loss to Kansas State on Jan. 16, the Sooners are in fantastic position to be one of the top seeds in the 2018 NCAA Tournament.
Young has played 17 college games, and in those contests, the former five-star recruit is averaging 29.5 points (on 45/40/82 shooting) and 9.8 assists a night. Those numbers are simply out of this world at the college level, and unsurprisingly, they are unparalleled by any play in a Power 5 conference. As a result, the hype train is revving up for Young, who was a top-20 recruit but not previously seen on the level of Marvin Bagley III, Michael Porter Jr., DeAndre Ayton and others from this class as a high school player.
Just how real is this hype? Well, it’s real. Young may not be in the uber-elite tier with Doncic and Ayton at this point, but he has rocketed into the top 10 in virtually every mock draft, and with good reason. The comparisons Young is garnering to Steph Curry are both meaningful and easy given the similarities between the two players, with Young launching (very) deep threes and playing a free-flowing style most closely associated with the two-time NBA MVP.
Of course, it is wholly unreasonable to compare anyone to Curry, given the way that he plays a completely unique brand of basketball. But if you watch Young play, it is easy to see why scouts and fans alike would salivate over his considerable upside.
There are, of course, question marks, as Young is not a nuclear athlete, hasn’t been asked to play within a “normal” offensive system, and doesn’t bring a ton of defensive upside to the table. Still, it can’t be overstated just how ridiculous Young has been to this point in the calendar. As a result, top-five projections are now completely reasonable after virtually no one saw Young as even a mid-first round pick, much less a top-10 prospect, just weeks ago.
How high can he climb? Let’s find out with our latest 2018 NBA mock draft.
1. Atlanta Hawks – Luka Doncic (SG/SF, Slovenia)
Doncic has been preposterous for Real Madrid, lighting up the EuroLeague and ACB League at the age of 18. He’ll be 19 before the draft arrives, but that’s not a concern, and the Hawks should be taking the best available player here. Doncic’s ceiling isn’t as high as that of Ayton (or maybe even a few others in this class), but he has easily the highest floor in the draft, which matters.
2. Orlando Magic – DeAndre Ayton (C, Arizona)
Orlando has bigger needs than at the center position but, for me, Ayton and Doncic are in their own tier together right now. It isn’t as if the Magic would be “blocking” Ayton, given their current frontcourt, and a long-term pairing of Ayton and rookie Jonathan Isaac would be wildly intriguing on a number of fronts. Ayton’s ceiling is the highest in this class given his ridiculous combination of size, athleticism and fluidity. If he can figure out the defensive end a little bit, good luck to the rest of the league.
3. Memphis Grizzlies – Marvin Bagley III (C/PF, Duke)
If Ayton and Doncic are in their own tier, Bagley is clearly in the next one. There’s a chance that he may, in the end, occupy it alone. Memphis could absolutely use his infusion of athleticism, efficiency and production and, alongside Marc Gasol in the early going, Bagley would have someone to help him grow defensively. Honestly, the defensive questions are the biggest hole in the freshman’s game right now but, if they are solved, he looks to be a top-flight player given the way he has performed in Durham.
4. Boston Celtics (via LA Lakers) – Mo Bamba (C, Texas)
Bamba wouldn’t be a slam dunk pick at No. 4 overall, especially with the emergence of Young. With that said, the Celtics obviously can’t go with a pure point guard, given the presence of Kyrie Irving. Additionally, Michael Porter Jr. wouldn’t be an ideal fit alongside Gordon Hayward, Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown. Bamba is a terrifying defensive prospect, and under Brad Stevens’ molding, his skills could be fully unleashed.
5. Cleveland Cavaliers (via Brooklyn) – Trae Young (PG, Oklahoma)
Young’s ultimate landing spot will be very interesting for a number of reasons. In this scenario, Cleveland picks up a potential building block and, even if LeBron James heads elsewhere this offseason, this pick would make all kinds of sense for the Cavs. It would also, conceivably, make it easier for Cleveland to justify not giving a massive contract to Isaiah Thomas, which would give them flexibility as they head into a rebuild.
6. Sacramento Kings – Michael Porter Jr. (SF/PF, Missouri)
Porter still could play for Missouri this season, but it doesn’t appear likely. As a result, we are forced to go off pre-college evaluation and the myriad of reasons why he was a top-flight recruit. Medicals and pre-draft workouts will be paramount, but No. 6 overall feels reasonable and the Kings should be looking for high-end talent virtually anywhere but point guard given their roster make-up. Porter fits that bill as a potentially dynamic offensive piece.
7. Phoenix Suns – Collin Sexton (PG, Alabama)
This might feel high for Sexton but I like the fit quite a bit. He is an otherworldly competitor at the point guard spot, and the Suns need a player of the future at the position. It isn’t necessarily perfect offensively to pair Sexton and Devin Booker, but Phoenix needs the competitive spark that Sexton would bring. Jaren Jackson would be the “best available” pick, but considering what Phoenix’s recent draft plans have been, Sexton fits the bigger need and is a reasonable choice.
8. Utah Jazz – Miles Bridges (PF/SF, Michigan State)
Bridges has been very good for the Spartans this season, despite the feeling that he is (somehow) underachieving after returning as the top non-freshman in the land. Utah doesn’t need a center, freeing the Jazz from the top overall player in Jackson, and Bridges would make a lot of sense as a long-term partner with Rudy Gobert.
9. Dallas Mavericks – Jaren Jackson Jr. (C/PF, Michigan State)
This isn’t the sexiest pick in the world, but Jackson is a defensive standout with the ability to function as an average offensive big man in the league. That combination is very impressive, and he is about as safe as a prospect gets in that regard. Dallas could swing for the fences elsewhere but Jackson is the best available player.
10. Chicago Bulls – Mikal Bridges (SF, Villanova)
Chicago’s renaissance won’t do the team any favors in terms of draft positioning, but Bridges would be a nice consolation prize. He is a perfect 3-and-D wing prospect and also doubles as the best player available. It wouldn’t be flashy, but it doesn’t need to be.
11. Charlotte Hornets – Kevin Knox (SF/PF, Kentucky)
Knox is a bit of a risky prospect in that it takes some projection to feel as though he is a lottery pick. Still, the Hornets could really use a talented, flexible forward to fill in the gaps moving forward and Knox brings real upside to the table in a way that not every prospect does in this range.
12. New York Knicks – Bruce Brown (SG, Miami)
I’m here for the combination of Brown and Frank Ntilikina. It isn’t as if Brown is some sort of generational prospect, but he may be the best player available and I remain very high on his game as someone who can function at both guard spots. Because Ntilikina isn’t a pure creator at the point, the Knicks could use someone that can do a bit of that. Add in that Brown plays really hard every night and it’s a fun fit.
13. Los Angeles Clippers – Wendell Carter (C/PF, Duke)
If we assume that DeAndre Jordan won’t be long for Los Angeles, this pick works perfectly. I continue to think Carter is a very solid prospect and, even if he isn’t a flashy pick, his very high floor makes him an intriguing fit with Blake Griffin. Steve Ballmer and company may be drawn to a perimeter player with more upside, but Carter is the move.
14. Indiana Pacers – Troy Brown (SF/SG, Oregon)
We went with the Brown/Pacers pairing in our last mock and it still works. His 6’11 wingspan and defensive tools are very intriguing and the way he fits with this roster just makes sense. He’s going to have to make more shots from the perimeter than he has at Oregon so far, but I believe in the stroke and the fit is just snug.
15. New Orleans Pelicans – Dzanan Musa (SF, Cedevita)
This is a popular mock pairing . The Pelicans have a desperate need for a shooter and Musa is the best one available in this reasonable range. It does feel like a slight reach to me, but sometimes, that’s the way these things work.
16. Milwaukee Bucks – Hamidou Diallo (SG, Kentucky)
I wish I trusted Diallo’s jump shot. If I did, he’d be a lottery pick. The Kentucky freshman checks a lot of the boxes (length, athleticism, explosiveness) that the Bucks seemingly prioritize and, lately, he’s been quite good for John Calipari and company.
17. Philadelphia 76ers – Shake Milton (SG/PG, SMU)
The Sixers are impossible to peg right now, given the uncertainty with Markelle Fultz, but Milton is so versatile that it really doesn’t matter. He is currently playing point guard in college at 6’6 with a 6’11 wingspan, and Milton is a proven shooter at that level. Is he going to be a star? Probably not, but he can shoot, defend and handle the ball, providing a ton of value on a team with Ben Simmons.
18. Phoenix Suns (via Miami) – Robert Williams (C/PF, Texas A+M)
It’s been a rough year for Williams, and the former top-10 prospect is declining as a result. This would represent a soft landing spot, though, and the Suns still don’t have a pure “center of the future” to build with down the line. I still like his athleticism and the Suns may, too.
19. Denver Nuggets – Anfernee Simons (SG/PG, High School)
The Nuggets really don’t need more guards but, well, they don’t “need” much of any position. Simons fits as a huge upside guy and, if Denver is convinced that Jamal Murray is a point guard, pairing him with a super athletic combo guard makes sense. Candidly, it is hard to know much about Simons other than highlight clips at this stage but scouts feel he’s a first round pick if he declares and the theoretical of what he could be is interesting.
20. Detroit Pistons – Lonnie Walker (SG, Miami)
Scouts are all over the place on Walker, who is seen as a lottery pick at times, and looks like a second-rounder at others. His physical capability is tantalizing, though, and Detroit could use another athletic, talented wing in addition to last year’s lottery pick in Luke Kennard.
21. Portland Trail Blazers – Chandler Hutchison (SG/SF, Boise State)
Portland could really use someone in the Shake Milton-Bruce Brown mold, but with both players off the board, we’re looking a bit bigger with Hutchison. It’s a shame that many haven’t seen him play yet, as Hutchison is tearing up the college game right now, flashing athleticism, defensive upside and shooting ability. He’s a top-20 guy at this point, and he makes sense with the Blazers.
22. Minnesota Timberwolves (via Oklahoma City) – Killian Tillie (PF/C, Gonzaga)
I sincerely doubt that this marriage occurs but I’d love it. Tillie’s defensive ability would be great in Minnesota next to Karl-Anthony Towns, especially for a Minnesota team that is (very) difficult to peg in a draft sense.
23. Washington Wizards – Mitchell Robinson (C, High School)
Robinson is the highest upside player remaining, and Marcin Gortat isn’t getting any younger. The Wizards are at a point where they might as well swing for the fences.
24. Atlanta Hawks (via Minnesota) – Trevon Duval (PG, Duke)
It seems inconceivable that Duval could fall out of the first round, but it might happen. That’s how shaky he’s been. I still like the tools, though, and the Hawks will have four (!) top-35 selections to take some chances on athletic, talented options. He fits that mold.
25. Cleveland Cavaliers – Keita Bates-Diop (SF, Ohio State)
Bates-Diop stays close to home and lands in a strong position if, of course, LeBron James returns. Even if he doesn’t, Bates-Diop doesn’t need the ball to be effective and, with Trae Young on board from the lottery, his projection as a very good role player makes sense.
26. Brooklyn Nets (via Toronto) – Tyus Battle (SG, Syracuse)
Brooklyn should be taking the best player available, as they don’t have the type of building blocks at most positions that Kenny Atkinson will need. In Battle, evaluation is everything, simply because Syracuse makes it so difficult to gauge defense. You have to love his tools, though, and we’re banking on them.
27. San Antonio Spurs – De’Anthony Melton (PG/SG, USC)
Melton won’t be playing at USC this year, but that won’t scare me away. He feels very “Spurs-y” in fact, as Melton is a legitimate two-way option that would fit alongside a lot of different pieces. One of those could be Dejounte Murray.
28. Boston Celtics – Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (SG/PG, Kentucky)
I wasn’t expecting Gilgeous-Alexander to land in the first round but he’s been very good in Lexington. Beyond his strong college contributions, the 6’6 guard has real length (a 7’0 wingspan) and would be an interesting fit in Boston, considering his versatility.
29. Atlanta Hawks (via Houston) – Jarred Vanderbilt (PF, Kentucky)
Vanderbilt finally debuted this week, and while we didn’t see all that much, his pre-college evaluation stands. At 6’9, he has offensive skills and enough length and tools to make it on the defensive end. The Hawks already have two guards in this mock and Vanderbilt would be an interesting pairing with John Collins.
30. Golden State Warriors – Grayson Allen (SG, Duke)
Doesn’t this just need to happen for a myriad of reasons? Oh, and Allen is a legitimate first-round talent. We shouldn’t pretend otherwise.
