Tuesday night in the Association brings a light schedule of action as only six teams will be squaring off. The headliner is the Los Angeles Clippers heading to New Orleans to take on the red-hot Pelicans in a game that will be important for both teams as they work towards a strong playoff seed out West.
As always, we have picks for you from the staff against the spread, with lines coming courtesy the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook. But first, we need to take a look at the trends and other factors that could lead you to one side or the other in these games. We start in Detroit, where the Ben Simmons-less Sixers will take on the Pistons.
Philadelphia 76ers (-1) at Detroit Pistons, O/U 214.5 (OPEN: Sixers -2.5, O/U 219)
The Sixers, as mentioned above, will be without Ben Simmons who was officially noted as out by Brett Brown around 5:30 p.m. ET on Tuesday night after being listed as doubtful following a back injury in their last game. Philly is 1-2 against the spread on the year, while the Pistons are 0-2 ATS in a pair of close wins on the court. This has swung back to a pick after the Sixers were plus a point earlier in the day, indicating money is coming in (unsurprisingly) on the Sixers side. This will really come down to how you feel about Markelle Fultz in a bigger role for Philly, and whether Joel Embiid will dominate Andre Drummond inside.
The Pistons are 1-1 on totals this year, while the Sixers are 2-1 on Overs. This total at 216.5 is one of the lower ones we’ve seen this year, as the start to this season has seen points galore. That said, last night saw a little leveling off in some games (not Spurs-Lakers) as there may be some regression coming for NBA offenses in general.
Los Angeles Clippers (+6.5) at New Orleans Pelicans, O/U 237 (OPEN: Pelicans -6.5, O/U 236)
The Clippers are 2-1 ATS, with the lone loss being in the opener to the red-hot Nuggets. Now they go on the road for the first time to take on a Pelicans team that’s been a juggernaut in its two games, crushing the Rockets and Kings with an offense that’s been virtually unstoppable.
I believe this is the highest total we’ve seen in the league this season, because Vegas is spooked right now by the Pelicans’ offense. They set the Kings game total at 232 and it got smoked by 46 points. New Orleans is 2-0 on Overs and has gone Over by 11 and 46 points. The Clippers are 2-1 on Unders, the rare team that’s kept games relatively low scoring this early season, but that still didn’t stop oddsmakers from posting an astronomical number. I don’t often give picks out for totals in this space, but this feels like an Under on principle, knowing fully well it could be a disaster with New Orleans involved.
Sacramento Kings (+11.5) at Denver Nuggets, O/U 228.5 (OPEN: Nuggets -11, O/U 227.5)
The Kings have covered twice, including the outright win over OKC on the road, and gave the Pelicans a full half of everything they could handle before getting run out of the building. They’ve been scrappier than expected, but so have the Nuggets who somehow lead the league in defensive rating and are 3-0 ATS to go along with their perfect record on the court.
As for the total, as the great Michael Buffer would say, someone’s 0 has to go. The Kings are a perfect 3-0 on Overs, smashing totals by an average of 36.3 points per game (the highest in the league), while the Nuggets are 3-0 on Unders, staying below the total by an average of 21.8 points per game (the lowest in the league by a ton). Everyone thought Denver’s offense would carry them this season, but the defense has been showing out. That said, the Kings defense might be the medicine that ails them when it comes to putting up some lopsided numbers on offense.
To the picks!
Dime Consensus Picks:
Philadelphia +1
New Orleans -6.5
Denver -11
