With only one week remaining in the 2020-21 regular season, playoff positioning is top of mind for most observers. The top three in the East have separated themselves from the pack, but there is an intriguing battle happening for the No. 4 seed and a similar scuffle being waged to avoid the play-in entirely. In the West, the top two is assured (in some order), but there is fluidity below that and a lot of attention paid to one particular contender (cough, Lakers, cough) as they navigate an injury-plagued stretch run. Still, there is another war happening, and it is occurring at the bottom of the standings.
There isn’t quite as much incentive to tank to the bottom these days after the NBA implemented a flattened lottery system for the 2019 NBA Draft. Still, there are a handful of teams entering the final week with absolutely nothing to play for, and they are bunched together with draft odds at the forefront.
The Houston Rockets are going to finish the season with the worst record and, as such, be tied for the best odds to secure the No. 1 pick as, at this moment, they are basically in their own category. Not only does Houston have the fewest wins (16) by a comfortable margin, but the Rockets are an impossibly poor 5-43 since starting the campaign with an 11-10 record. While visions of Cade Cunningham likely dance in Houston’s head, they only have a 14.0 percent chance to land in the top spot and, because of a trade obligation, the Rockets have only a 52.1 percent chance to keep the pick, as it must land in the top four or the selection will be heading to Oklahoma City.
With the Rockets accounted for, there are five (yes, five) teams with either 20 or 21 wins. Detroit has “the lead” at 20-49 and, if they lose their final three contests, the Pistons will likewise secure a 14 percent shot at the top pick. From there, Oklahoma City, Cleveland, Orlando and Minnesota all have 21 wins at the time of this post, and none have incentive to add to that total in the next six days.
As an example, the Thunder have been exceptionally bad lately and there are no signs of that changing.
Per ESPN Stats & Info, the Thunder have been outscored by 490 points in their last 25 games, the worst margin of defeat by any team in any 25-game span in NBA history. Previous worst was by the 92-93 Mavs (489 points), who went 11-71 that season.
— Royce Young (@royceyoung) May 10, 2021
There is also at least one must-see contest that will have direct impact on the lottery race.
The Wolves and Pistons face off on Tuesday evening in Detroit and somebody has to win. That is the only head-to-head matchup between the five teams in question and, well, that could be an all-timer if things break in a certain direction. That isn’t to say that other teams couldn’t pick up a win somewhere along the way but, in the race to the bottom, anything goes.
Adding more intrigue to the proceedings is Minnesota’s pick protection quandary. In similar fashion to the aforementioned Rockets pick that is protected 1-4, the Wolves have a pick with top-three protection that is owed to the Golden State Warriors. If Minnesota can sneak into the top three of the lottery at the end of the season, the Wolves would have a 40.1 percent chance to keep that pick. If they don’t, the odds only decrease and, given the stakes and the other team involved, the fate of that pick has the attention of the league.
At any rate, there could be some unsightly basketball in the next few days, but there are real stakes. In a draft that has a consensus top-five, every slot counts, and while we know the general area of where these bottom-six teams will land this week, it’s time to unveil our DIME power rankings.
1. Philadelphia 76ers (47-21, Last week — 2nd)
Admittedly, it hasn’t been the toughest schedule for the 76ers down the stretch. With that out of the way, they are completely dominating on the defensive end on the way to the NBA’s longest active winning streak (eight), and that can’t be ignored. Barring an unforeseen collapse, Philadelphia will be the No. 1 seed in the East, and they are playing like it.
2. Utah Jazz (50-19, Last week — 3rd)
Utah may have been No. 1 without a loss on Monday. The Jazz won the previous five games in a row and they hold a 1.5-game lead over the Phoenix Suns for the best record in the NBA. Because of that, Utah could withstand a narrow loss to Golden State and remain in the top two.
3. Phoenix Suns (48-20, Last week — 1st)
It wasn’t the best week for Phoenix, even if a 2-2 mark undersells it. The Suns were annihilated in Atlanta and they suffered a double-digit loss in Los Angeles. The loss to the Hawks, albeit by a far-too-wide margin, could be attributed to schedule challenges, but the Suns couldn’t stay in the top two. Fear not, they are in a great overall situation.
4. Milwaukee Bucks (43-25, Last week — 4th)
We’ll touch on Milwaukee’s ugly showing on Monday in the Spurs section, but the Bucks got walloped by San Antonio. Before that, the Bucks won five in a row, and we’ll attribute that hiccup to 2021 weirdness. Milwaukee also has a relatively friendly schedule and a puncher’s chance at the No. 2 seed.
5. Brooklyn Nets (44-24, Last week — 5th)
Brooklyn could be lower after losing four straight games recently, but they picked up a big win over Denver on the road in their last outing. Moreover, the Nets are easy to trust on offense and, presumably, James Harden will be returning in the near future. No one wants to fool with Brooklyn.
6. L.A. Clippers (45-23, Last week — 7th)
If you want to be pessimistic, the Clippers are 2-4 in the last six and lost a home game in their last outing. If you want to be optimistic, they are healthier at this stage and 30-11 when both Kawhi Leonard and Paul George play. The Clippers also finish with a four-game road trip this week, so it will be interesting to see how they respond.
7. Dallas Mavericks (40-28, Last week — 11th)
Dallas is riding a four-game winning streak and they are 10-2 in the last 12 tilts. That is the best 12-game mark in the league, and they boast a +9.9 net rating with a 119.2 offensive rating in that stretch. Two blowout wins over a bad Cleveland team certainly help, but the Mavs are playing well.
8. Portland Trail Blazers (40-29, Last week — 15th)
Like Dallas, Portland is red-hot. They’ve also won four in a row and eight of the last nine, scoring almost 1.25 points per possession in that sample. The Blazers can’t sustain that level of efficiency, but this closing kick has been impressive. They are now a favorite to snag at least the No. 6 seed and avoid the play-in.
9. Denver Nuggets (44-24, Last week — 6th)
It was a 1-3 week for the Nuggets, but they are only dropping because of how good Dallas and Portland have been. The Nuggets lost (by single digits) to the Lakers, Jazz and Nets. There is no great shame in that.
10. New York Knicks (38-30, Last week — 8th)
New York finishes up a six-game road trip against the Lakers on Tuesday, but they’ve already guaranteed at least a .500 mark on that journey. The Knicks continue to surprise, and their latest salvo was an impressive road win over the Clippers.
11. Atlanta Hawks (38-31, Last week — 9th)
The Hawks haven’t lost a home game in almost a month, but they’ve had a few hiccups on the road. That makes the push for the No. 4 seed all the more important, and Atlanta has a (very) soft schedule this week. They can easily finish with 41 wins and put pressure on the Knicks to close strong.
12. Los Angeles Lakers (38-30, Last week — 12th)
With Portland and Dallas both surging, the Lakers might end up in the play-in. If they are the No. 7 seed, though, some of the risk is removed, with two chances to secure a path to the playoffs. Regardless, everything hinges on LeBron’s pending return, which could come as soon as Tuesday.
13. Miami Heat (37-31, Last week — 10th)
The Heat are playing well, especially when Jimmy Butler is on the floor. For the full season, Miami has a +4.7 net rating when Butler is on the floor and a -6.2 net rating when he sits. They are also 31-19 in games when Butler suits up and just 6-12 without him. That basically paints the picture of Miami’s season and why they are scratching and clawing in the middle of the East.
14. Golden State Warriors (36-33, Last week — 13th)
Steph Curry is preposterous. He’s led the Warriors to five wins in the last six games, and the numbers are just staggering. Curry is averaging 37.2 points per game in the last 22 contests, shooting 45 percent from three on 14.6 attempts per game. There is no precedent for that, not even from Curry himself.
15. Memphis Grizzlies (35-33, Last week — 17th)
Memphis clinched a play-in spot on Monday, and that is a testament to their resilience this season. The Grizzlies haven’t had their full complement for much of the year and, while that could be said for many teams, they’ve navigated things quite well.
16. Washington Wizards (32-37, Last week — 14th)
Washington played four games this week and they were decided by five points combined. Yes, you’re reading that right. The Wizards split those four contests, and they almost pulled off a miracle comeback from 19 points down in the fourth quarter in Atlanta on Monday. The headliner there was Russell Westbrook making NBA history, but the Wizards also played relatively well, even without Bradley Beal.
17. Boston Celtics (35-33, Last week — 16th)
Jaylen Brown is out for the season, and that is brutal. The Celtics already disappointed this season, but they certainly couldn’t afford this kind of injury and they will be even bigger underdogs in a playoff setting at this stage. What were the odds of Boston needing to navigate the play-in tournament this season?
18. San Antonio Spurs (33-35, Last week — 21st)
If you’re in search of a reminder of the wild variance from this season, the first half of Monday’s Spurs-Bucks game is something to circle. San Antonio scored a franchise-record 87 points before halftime, using that to throttle the previously hot Bucks. That doesn’t suddenly mean that San Antonio is good and Milwaukee is bad, but it was a win the Spurs needed.
19. Charlotte Hornets (33-35, Last week — 18th)
Charlotte will be playing postseason basketball, but they aren’t inspiring with recent play. The Hornets had an opportunity to make a run this week, but they promptly lost home games to Chicago and New Orleans. Charlotte is 24-20 with Gordon Hayward and 9-15 without him, which tells the story, at least in part.
20. New Orleans Pelicans (31-38, Last week — 20th)
There isn’t much to take from a Monday night loss without key pieces, but it wasn’t a good result for the team’s fledgling play-in hopes. With Zion out indefinitely, it’s basically on to 2021-22 for New Orleans, but Basketball-Reference does give the Pels a 1.3 percent chance to reach the No. 10 spot.
21. Chicago Bulls (29-39, Last week — 25th)
It’s likely going to be a “too little, too late” situation for the Bulls, but they’ve won three in a row. It isn’t a coincidence that the uptick began when Zach LaVine returned, and Chicago has been very unlucky since their massive trade deadline acquisition of Nikola Vucevic.
22. Indiana Pacers (32-36, Last week — 24th)
To their credit, the Pacers have won two of the last three games, including a nice home win over Atlanta. That doesn’t paper over the issues, though, and Indiana has been jarringly bad defensively without Myles Turner. We’ll see if they can hold off the Wizards for home-court in the first play-in game.
23. Sacramento Kings (30-38, Last week — 23rd)
Sacramento should potentially be higher on this list after winning five of the last six games. That’s just what they do, though, as the Kings have been the streakiest imaginable team in 2020-21. They’re also doing this in weird fashion, with road straight road wins behind a short-handed roster.
24. Minnesota Timberwolves (21-47, Last week — 22nd)
The Wolves are 7-5 in the last 12 games with a top-10 offense during that run. They obviously had a long way to go to climb up the pecking order after a hideous start but, if nothing else, Minnesota’s been highly competitive and shown flashes. That’s all they could ask for down the stretch of a lost season.
25. Toronto Raptors (27-41, Last week — 19th)
There was a brief moment when the Raptors were kind of alive in the play-in chase. On cue, they lost all three games this week (without Kyle Lowry playing) and Toronto is just 2-7 in the last nine games. Even skeptics didn’t predict 27-41 for the Raptors, but the season from hell is almost over.
26. Detroit Pistons (20-49, Last week — 27th)
Detroit’s win over Memphis this week was enough to push them out of the bottom four. The aforementioned showdown between Detroit and Minnesota will decide some things, but the Pistons… really need to lose the rest of these games. They probably know that, so look out.
27. Orlando Magic (21-47, Last week — 26th)
After a bizarre 3-1 showing prior to this week, the Magic remembered what they needed to do. Orlando lost three games by a combined 78 points, and they are now 29th in the NBA in net rating. Yikes.
28. Houston Rockets (16-53, Last week — 29th)
Houston was oddly competitive in road losses to Milwaukee and Utah this week, falling by single digits on both occasions. That might mask their overall horror, as the Rockets have the worst record in the league over the last three months. It’s taken a good bit of effort to have the driver’s seat for the top spot in the lottery, but Houston has done it.
29. Cleveland Cavaliers (21-48, Last week — 28th)
The bottom has fallen out for the Cavs, who are on an 11-game losing streak. In those 11 games, Cleveland has a defensive rating well above 120, and they are being outscored by 17.1 points per 100 possessions. Somehow, that isn’t the worst net rating in the league over that team (see below), but the Cavaliers are just ready for Cancun.
30. Oklahoma City Thunder (21-48, Last week — 30th)
The Thunder don’t have the league’s worst record or the league’s longest active winning streak, but it doesn’t matter. As noted above, it can be argued Oklahoma City just had the worst 25-game stretch in the history of the NBA, and they are essentially functioning as a G League team down the stretch. Is that probably good for their future? Yes. Has it been entertaining at times? Yes. Are they dreadful right now? Also yes.
