The first Monday of the NBA season is here, and with it come nine games in the Association. Each team in the league has now played two games, so we’re slowly but surely learning a little bit about each. In this space, we’ll explore the betting lines for each of those games, along with some trends for each, before we get to our staff picks (combining what was two posts into one now).
If you’re just here for staff picks, those will be found at the bottom. For today’s betting guide, let’s begin.
Charlotte Hornets (+9.5) at Toronto Raptors, O/U 226 (OPEN: Toronto -9.5, O/U 221)
The Hornets have been underdogs in all three games they’ve played this season, and have covered them all. They covered the opener at home with a comeback against the Bucks, and then in a road back-to-back in Orlando and Miami, with outright wins on the court. Now they head to Canada to test that streak against a Raptors team that’s covered two in a row after getting backdoored by one point in the opener by the Cavs. Kawhi Leonard is back in the lineup, hence the near 10-point line here.
Like just about everyone else in the NBA early in this season, the Over has hit more often than not in both teams games. The Hornets are 2-1 on Overs, while the Raptors have gone Over the total in all three games.
Orlando Magic (+11.5) at Boston Celtics, O/U 210 (OPEN: Boston -12, O/U 212)
The Magic have shown us a little bit of everything this season. They’ve covered and won as a ‘dog (against Miami in the opener). They’ve covered in a close loss on the road as a big dog (to Philadelphia). And they’ve gotten absolutely blown out as a home ‘dog to the Hornets. Now, they’re in that big road ‘dog position again in Boston against a Celtics team that’s 1-2 ATS this season, failing to cover in their last two games in a lopsided loss to Toronto and a narrow win over the Knicks. Best of luck pinning down either team on the side here.
The Magic and Celtics are two of eight teams with a better record on Unders than Overs this season, with both of them staying Under in two of three games (with the opener as the exception for each). At 210, this is the lowest total of the night, which makes sense given the way these teams have played to this point.
Indiana Pacers (+2) at Minnesota Timberwolves, O/U 227.5 (OPEN: Timberwolves -2.5, O/U 222.5)
The Timberwolves are one of five teams that’s yet to cover this season in the NBA, as they’ve lost twice outright and allowed the Cavs to backdoor them in their lone win (and lone home game). Jimmy Butler is back in the lineup after missing their trip to Dallas where they lost on the floor as a favorite (two losses and two failures to cover in the state of Texas so far this season). The Pacers are 2-1 ATS, with their lone blemish being when the Bucks took them to the woodshed in Milwaukee (also the one time they’ve been a road dog this season). They’re two wins and covers were blowouts at home against lesser competition in Memphis and Brooklyn.
The Wolves defense remains an issue as they’ve gone Over in all three games, while the Pacers have gone Over in their last two after holding Under against Memphis. At 227.5, this game is tied for the second highest total of the evening in the Association. Of note, the Wolves have gone Over by an average of 31.3 points in three games this season.
New York Knicks (+11) at Milwaukee Bucks, O/U 225.5 (OPEN: Bucks -11.5, O/U 223.5)
Break up the Knicks! New York is 3-0 ATS, taking Knicks backers to Covertown in each of there games thanks to some spirited and competitive play despite their 1-2 record. The Bucks, meanwhile, are 1-1 ATS, but that one cover was a thrashing of the Pacers at home in the new Fiserv Forum, their lone home game of the year. They also were dominating Charlotte in the first half before Kemba Walker exploded in the second half to get a backdoor cover.
The Bucks have gone Over in both games this season thanks to strong offensive play, while the Knicks have been surprisingly solid defensively, with a 2-1 record on Unders so far.
Chicago Bulls (+5.5) at Dallas Mavericks, O/U 230 (OPEN: Mavs -6, O/U 229)
After getting smoked in their opener in Phoenix, Dallas rebounded with an explosive performance in a win and cover against the Wolves in their home opener to move to 1-1 on the season and 1-1 ATS. The Bulls are also 1-1 ATS after getting smoked by Philly in their opener on the road, before covering in a tight loss to the Pistons in their home opener. So, both are 0-1 ATS on the road and 1-0 ATS at home. Maybe that means something or maybe it’s a wildly small sample size, but Dallas is the home team.
Both teams have gone Over the total in their two games this season, hence why this has the highest total of the night at 230, which may not be high enough with these two defenses.
Memphis Grizzlies (+10) at Utah Jazz, O/U 213.5 (OPEN: Jazz -10.5, O/U 219)
The Grizzlies are 1-1 ATS, but that includes a win at home over the Atlanta Hawks. Their loss was an awful one in the opener in Indiana against a very good defense on the road in which they scored 83 points. Now they face a Utah team that’s likely frustrated coming off a loss (but a cover) at home against the Warriors, as they’re 1-1 on the court and ATS, and haven’t played up to par defensively.
Utah’s gone Over twice, while Memphis is 1-1 on totals, but this total has dropped since open as many seem to expect the Grizzlies to struggle like they did with Indiana’s defense as Utah looks to assert itself on that end.
Washington Wizards (+4.5) at Portland Trail Blazers, O/U 227 (OPEN: Blazers -5, O/U 226)
The Wizards are 0-2 on the court and 0-2 ATS and now must make their first road trip of the season to visit the Blazers, who are a perfect 2-0 on the court and against the spread, and have looked very good at home. Washington is making the trip without Dwight Howard, whose absence in the middle has been noticeable in a defense that’s been outrebounded by 30 in two games.
Washington, unsurprisingly, is 2-0 on Overs this season, as is Portland, once again represented by a high total at 227.
San Antonio Spurs (-1) at Los Angeles Lakers, O/U 224.5 (OPEN: Spurs PK, O/U 221.5)
The Lakers are 0-2 on the court and 0-2 ATS this season in losses to the Blazers and Rockets and now will face the Spurs as a home underdog without the suspended Rajon Rondo and Brandon Ingram. The Spurs 1-1 ATS this season, with a cover and win on the court at home against the Timberwolves and a loss and failed cover on the road in Portland. This is their first game as a road favorite, a role in which they were 8-14 ATS a year ago.
Both teams have gone Over in every game this season, with both teams sharing the exact same average margin, going Over by an average of 11.8 points in their two games.
Phoenix Suns (+12.5) at Golden State Warriors, O/U 227.5 (OPEN: Warriors -12.5, O/U 228.5)
The Suns are 1-1 on the court and ATS, with a home win over the Mavs and a road loss to the Nuggets. The Warriors are among the five teams yet to cover, as they are 0-3 ATS, most recently losing on the court as a road favorite to the Nuggets. Golden State, as a team, is shooting 32.4 percent from three-point range on 24.7 attempts, as only Steph Curry is averaging more than one made three per game. When that changes and they regress to the mean, it will likely open the floodgates to Covertown, but will that regression start against Phoenix?
The Warriors have gone Under the total in two of their three games, while the Suns are 1-1 (both went Under in common games with Denver, the only team to stay Under in every game they’ve played this season). The books are still projecting plenty of points in this one, with a total at 227.5, which again may be contingent on whether this is the game Golden State hits threes.
Here are our staff picks, for all nine games:
Dime Consensus Picks:
Charlotte +9.5
Boston -11.5
Indiana +2
Milwaukee -11
Dallas -5.5
Utah -10
Portland -5
Lakers +1
Golden State -12.5
