2017-18 Record: 48-34 (6th in the Western Conference)
Players Added: Julius Randle (free agency), Elfrid Payton (free agency), Jahlil Okafor (free agency), Troy Williams (free agency)
Players Lost: DeMarcus Cousins (free agency), Rajon Rondo (free agency), Emeka Okafor (free agency), DeAndre Liggins (waived), Jordan Crawford (free agency)
Projected Team MVP: Anthony Davis
Davis might be the league MVP this season, and the way he’s talking this offseason it seems like that’s a personal goal of his. Davis has not been shy about saying he believes he’s the best player in the league, citing his two-way skills and being in the top 5 for MVP and DPOY last year. He has a point and he very well may prove it this season, and the Pelicans will hope he does just that.
There aren’t many questions for Davis personally. The main one is health, but he’s played 75 games in each of the last two years which has helped him avoid the dreaded “injury prone” tag. Still, keeping Davis healthy is among the Pelicans top concerns every year, but rest is hard to come by for the star as the Pelicans need him on the floor for as many minutes as possible to keep pace in the Western Conference playoff hunt. If Davis manages to continue on his torrid pace from the second half of last season after Cousins went down, he’ll win MVP and the Pelicans’ only concern will be where they’re seeded come playoff time.
X-Factor: Julius Randle
We’ve never seen Randle play on a contender, much less next to a player like Davis. With the important caveat that it’s just the preseason, Randle has looked good in exhibition action, averaging 17.2 points and 7.2 rebounds per game and is hitting 33.3 percent of his threes (in a super small sample size). We saw how much New Orleans had DeMarcus Cousins fire from deep next to Davis, as he became a lethal threat from that range, and Randle is not nearly the shooter Cousins is, but if he can hit a third of his attempts from out there to keep the defense honest, that’d be huge for the spacing of this team.
What excites me the most about Randle on this Pelicans team is how much it’ll allow him to flex his abilities as a playmaker, not only for himself but for others. Again, it’s just preseason, but he averaged 3.5 assists per game through the Pelicans four preseason games. That’s a full assist per game higher than his career high in Los Angeles, and if he can give them that kind of productivity during the season it will open up all kinds of options for a two-man game with Davis and Randle, something Cousins and Davis thrived at last year.
It will be interesting to see how the Pelicans deploy their frontcourt rotation, as playing Mirotic with Randle and Davis gives them a potent offensive threat but leaves real concerns about defense on the wing. Randle can be a major help for Davis in the frontcourt when they’re paired together and he should have plenty of opportunities given the attention Davis commands from a defense.
Best Case Scenario:
Randle slides in at the four next to Davis and thrives while Davis rattles off an MVP season. Mirotic embraces his super-sub role, knocking down threes at a 35 percent or more clip. Jrue Holiday has another season like last year and Elfrid Payton enjoys a return to Louisiana where he went to college and becomes a very capable backup point guard who can help out when they need a second lockdown defender in the backcourt.
The Pelicans win 50 games and cruise to take the fourth seed in the West, take out the Thunder in the first round and catch a banged up Rockets team that earned the top seed in the semis to advance to the Western Conference Finals, falling in a tough five games to Golden State. Anthony Davis signs his supermax extension over the summer and Pelicans fans stop having to hear about how he’s going to force his way to Boston or L.A.
Worst Case Scenario:
Randle and Mirotic struggle with efficiency and are net-negatives on defense. Davis and Holiday both pick up some nagging injuries that limit them to 65 games apiece. Elfrid Payton looks like he did last year and in games where he’s forced to start for Holiday the Pelicans go 6-11. The team wins 42 games and misses the postseason. Davis gets frustrated with the situation and requests a trade leading to offseason chaos in New Orleans.
