2016-17 Record: 29-53 (13th in East)
Players Added: Arron Afflalo (FA), Khem Birch (FA), Jonathan Isaac (Draft), Wesley Iwundu (Draft), Kalin Lucas (FA), Shelvin Mack (FA), Adreian Payne (FA), Jonathan Simmons (FA), Marreese Speights (FA)
Players Lost: Patricio Garino (FA), Marcus Georges-Hunt (FA), Jeff Green (FA), Jodie Meeks (FA), Damjan Rudez (FA), C.J. Watson (FA), Stephen Zimmerman (FA)
Projected Team MVP: Aaron Gordon
There are a handful of teams in the NBA that do not have an obvious “best player,” and the Magic are one of them. In fact, Aaron Gordon was unequivocally not the best player for Orlando a season ago, making this something of a bold proclamation. Still, there is no question as to who the most talented player (sans potentially rookie Jonathan Isaac) on this roster and, entering his age-22 season, Gordon appears to finally be occupying his natural position of power forward.
In 80 games (72 starts) a season ago, Gordon averaged 12.7 points and 5.1 rebounds per game in 28.7 minutes and there were flashes of his considerable potential. Defensively, he has the size and athleticism to credibly defend the biggest and best at the small forward position while not giving away too much against the more traditional, bulky players. With that said, Gordon was often asked to chase around smaller wings by virtue of Orlando’s (insane) plan to play big and, hopefully, that will evaporate in 2017-2018.
There are still real questions about his offensive game and his jump shot is a work in progress at this point. Still, Gordon will be given every opportunity to shine in what amounts to a contract year and he edges out Evan Fournier (and others) as the player that will be the most valuable for the Magic this season.
Team X-Factor: Elfrid Payton
Payton is, at least theoretically, in the mix for the team MVP in Orlando and, if you believe his end-of-season run from 2016-2017, it is easy to see why. Over the final 21 games of last season, Payton shot 51.7 percent from the floor while averaging 14.1 points, 8.8 assists, and 7.3 rebounds per game. No one would mistake him from a gifted scoring option but that is the type of statistical profile that the Magic were likely dreaming of when the organization invested a lottery pick in the former Louisiana-Lafayette guard.
From a full season standpoint, though, Payton’s weaknesses persisted and his 49.3 percent effective field goal percentage is essentially untenable for a full-time starting point guard. On the bright side, he posted career-bests across the board in terms of efficiency and Payton’s defense has begun to come around to some degree. If he is the player that he flashed to be in March and April, the Magic could realistically bank on him as a long-term starter. If not, Orlando must go in search of a new answer at point guard and that could be a significant barrier to entry when it comes to making the jump into the playoff mix. In short, that is the definition of a team X-factor.
Best Case Scenario:
It’s a big year for the Magic. If the team’s young assets (Gordon, Payton, Isaac, etc.) take a step forward, there is no reason to think Orlando could not at least theoretically compete for a playoff spot in the Eastern Conference. That is an exceedingly low bar given the way the bottom of the East projects this season but the Magic are in a portion of their rebuild when results are beginning to matter in a big way. Beyond that, there are huge decisions to make with both Payton and Gordon in terms of extension talks and free agency planning and those become easier if steps are taken to ensure strong production in the future.
In terms of the veterans, it would be encouraging for Orlando if Frank Vogel and his staff could coax 48 effective minutes per game from the center combination of Nikola Vucevic and Bismack Biyombo. Neither is an ideal starter for the future in the current NBA climate but, in terms of being able to function around their young talent and avoid another sub-30 win season, that duo will be vitally important and both are at least capable of reaching this scenario.
Worst Case Scenario:
The Magic won 29 games a season ago, and they could certainly do that again. The team had an expected win-loss record (per Basketball-Reference) of 24-58 and that includes the presence of Serge Ibaka for 56 contests. Given the weak East and Orlando’s rising talent level based on young players, it would be (quite) aggressive to project a repeat of that kind of baseline performance. Still, there is a big-time emphasis being placed on young players that haven’t proven much at the highest level.
Imagine a world in which Aaron Gordon simply repeats his performance from last season and Elfrid Payton regresses to pre-March form again. Short of projection from young players, this is essentially the same team from a year ago and another trip to the lottery (with a plethora of ping-pong balls) wouldn’t be a shock. On the bright side, that would give this front office another opportunity to add to the cupboard of talent. Unfortunately, it would also likely mean that a few of their current “assets” wouldn’t look fruitful for the future.
