*Part I, featuring teams ranked 9-17, was published last week and can be found HERE.
This exercise was originally slated to include only 10 teams, the ones that are likeliest to beat long odds and emerge as legitimate contenders going forward despite their youth and current standing. But re-building is fluid. Only taking the cream of the crop into account could allow kismet to play too big a hand when assessing the NBA even a year from now, let alone at the turn of the decade.
Using specific parameters on which teams to profile ensured that the entire league wouldn’t be included, and also ensured less-notable cases wouldn’t be negligently overlooked. Here’s the rubric:
- Only players aged 24 or younger before the 2016-17 season begins were counted
- Teams containing four or more of those players made the first cut
- If fewer than four of those guys were deemed less than “likely rotation players” at their reasonable playing peak, their team was eliminated from consideration
After way too much time spent poring over all 30 rosters, we were left with 17 qualified teams and subsequently ranked them in the order from least-to-most likely to succeed. But team building and a player’s potential, as should be abundantly clear by now, is complicated. The strengths and weaknesses of these groups of youngsters deserve much more analysis than a passing glance – hence this operation being broken into two parts.
Without further ado, here’s Part II of the league’s best and worst young cores.
8. Los Angeles Lakers
Core: Jordan Clarkson (24), Larry Nance, Jr. (23), Julius Randle (20), D’Angelo Russell (20), Brandon Ingram (18)
Most will deem this ranking a few spots too low for a team with as many sure-things as the Lakers. All five players here are primed to carve out meaningful roles in the league before their careers are over, and some would argue each has the chance to star. That’s a wildly optimistic perception, though, one proven most outlandish by Nance positioning himself beside or just behind Randle in the race to become Los Angeles’ power forward of the future.
But that positional battle is on the periphery of what most matters to the Lakers both now and going forward. Russell has the scoring and playmaking instincts reserved for superstars. If he continues to work on his body and comes close to his ceiling as a shooter, the No. 2 pick of the 2015 draft is poised to emerge as the conductor of Luke Walton’s motion-heavy, uptempo system. That’s hardly a formality, though. Russell’s work ethic and professionalism was consistently questioned throughout his rookie year, and the bright lights of Los Angeles have been blinding for some players in the past. Time will tell.
The Lakers’ biggest prize might be Ingram. Players with his package of size, skill, and coordination are few and far between; the Kevin Durant comparisons aren’t far off. A lack of strength really could be the 18-year-old’s undoing, though. Much of Ingram’s value is gleaned from his potential ability to guard multiple positions down the road. But if his exceedingly lanky frame fills out like Austin Daye’s as opposed to Durant’s, that versatility won’t ever quite come to pass.
Los Angeles got Clarkson to re-sign for a bargain contract, which is especially important considering his fit with this roster isn’t so seamless with Russell and Ingram around. He’s a useful piece during this team’s evolution either way. Randle and Nance are, too, and their battle for playing time under Walton will be much more hard-fought than reputation suggests – particularly after Walton’s hiring.
7. Utah Jazz
Core: Rudy Gobert (24), Raul Neto (24), Rodney Hood (23), Dante Exum (21), Trey Lyles (20)
It speaks volumes of the Jazz’s awesome rebuilding job that they’re No. 7 on this list despite Gordon Hayward and Derrick Favors aging out of qualification. Those guys can be the foundation of a good team, but it’s gems like Gobert and Hood who could make Utah great.
You know about the Stifle Tower by now; he’ll be a perennial Defensive Player of the Year candidate for the next half decade. The Jazz will be forever limited by playing another non-stretch big man next to Favors, though, and that’s why striking gold with Hood late in the first round of the 2014 Draft looms so large. Offensively, he’s already one of the most well-rounded wings in the league at 23. The next step for Hood is playing to his talent level on a game-by-game basis and further committing himself defensively.
But Quin Snyder pretty much knows what he’ll be getting from Gobert and Hood. The progress of Exum and Lyles could take Utah from surefire playoff team to likely top-four seed in 2016-17, and there’s almost no telling how big a role either youngster will play during his second full season – a reality that says more about the additions of George Hill and Boris Diaw than anything else.
Regardless of what transpires this season, both Exum and Lyles figure to be fixtures for the Jazz going forward. The former is a recent top-five pick who flashed elite defensive ability as a rookie, while the latter affords Utah’s star frontcourt tandem the offensive dynamism it will always lack. Neto opened some eyes during his crash-course NBA debut, too, but will be hard-pressed to find court time in 2016-17.
6. Denver Nuggets
Core: Joffrey Lauvergne (24), Gary Harris (21), Nikola Jokic (21), Jusuf Nurkic (21), Emmanuel Mudiay (20), Juan Hernangomez (20), Jamal Murray (19)
Denver’s the most underrated group of young players in the league, and it’s not particularly close. That anonymity is at least partially due to geography; mountain time doesn’t lend itself to League Pass convenience for over half the country. But it’s also impossible to ignore that locals just don’t support the Nuggets the way other cities with down-on-their-luck teams do.
But that large-scale indifference won’t last long if Michael Malone’s squad lives up to its potential, a prospect that hinges on the development of Jokic more than anyone else. The Serbian center has every tool necessary to become a perennial competitor for All-NBA honors: size, athleticism, touch, and offensive feel befitting a select few big men. It would be a surprise if he doesn’t develop into a star; that’s how advanced his game is at the age of 21. He’s not without flaws, of course, most notably an aversion to physicality and troubling lack of impact on the glass, but those deficiencies barely blur the long-term outlook for Jokic’s future.
Mudiay topped all rookies in turnover rate last year and shot 36.4 percent overall. Most disappointing was his 45.5 percent shooting from the restricted area, a terrible number for any player, let alone a 6-foot-5 guard with explosive athleticism and a sturdy build. The 20 year old won’t be anything close to the player he’s capable of unless he makes drastic improvements in that area. But Mudiay got more comfortable as the season progressed, and even connected on a solid 35.6 percent of his three-point attempts from February onward – an especially encouraging development considering some assumed that comfortable range would never come.
Even if that’s an aberration, Harris and Murray will be around to help the Nuggets make up for Mudiay’s inconsistent jumper. The former came on strong in his sophomore season after a wasted rookie campaign, while the latter figures to ease the playmaking burden on Mudiay and offer Denver some shot-making dynamism that’s long been absent save for Danilo Gallinari. Nurkic was considered the Nuggets’ center of the future before succumbing to injury in 2015-16 and watching Jokic assume that role. Keep an eye on Malone rolling out lineups that feature both Eastern European big men; they proved surprisingly playable down the stretch last year.
5. Philadelphia 76ers
Core: Joel Embiid (22), Jerami Grant (22), Nerlens Noel (22), Dario Saric (21), Jahlil Okafor (20), Ben Simmons (20)
The Sixers’ ceiling might be higher than each of the teams ranked in the top five, but their floor is definitely lower, too. Simmons is this team’s closest thing to a surefire star, and he might be one in box-score statistics and name recognition more than actual impact unless his broken jumper eventually gets fixed. But if the No. 1 pick becomes a reliable threat from outside? Holy hell. Philadelphia won’t only contend for titles, but Australia might become much more than a thorn in Team USA’s side on the international stage.
And here’s the thing: Simmons isn’t even the Sixers’ best prospect. Embiid owns that distinction, and the game’s most tantalizing what-if has done nothing this summer to make it seem like he won’t shed that label in 2015-16. The 7-foot-2 ballerina is even on track to play preseason games before his official NBA debut in late October. But that such a basic likelihood qualifies as optimism indicates just how tenuous Embiid’s grasp remains on any meaningful playing career; he could be everything and he could be nothing. There’s still no way to tell for sure, and even a month-long glimpse of Embiid’s potential won’t be enough to erase the lingering doubt concerning his long-term future.
The pre-draft sheen has worn off both Noel and Okafor, but it would still be a surprise if either player didn’t carve out a lasting niche in the league – it just may not be in Philadelphia. Okafor, in particular, is an awkward fit next to Embiid. He doesn’t have the feet to check power forwards and would probably garner more interest on the trade market than Noel, too. It will be interesting to see how Brett Brown doles out minutes to all three players assuming Okafor and Noel are on the roster until the trade deadline.
Saric presents the Sixers with the same problem as Okafor: He clearly deserves developmental minutes, but the team has a superior player who’s cut from the same cloth occupying a similar role. Philadelphia isn’t playing to win in 2015-16, but if it was, lineups utilizing both he and Simmons would be few and far between. Grant, an electric athlete at power forward who the Sixers are hellbent on fostering into a shooter, also complicates matters.
4. Detroit Pistons
Core: Tobias Harris (24), Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (23), Andre Drummond (23), Stanley Johnson (20), Henry Ellenson (19)
The jury is still out on the type of player Drummond will ultimately become. After a terrible start on the block last season, the Pistons All-Star gradually looked more comfortable with his back to the basket. Even so, among those who notched at least 100 post ups, Drummond’s 0.72 points per possession ranked 58th out of 65 qualified players – and he took more shots from there than every player in the league but Brook Lopez, LaMarcus Aldridge, and Greg Monroe, according to Synergy. But the 23 year old doesn’t need to be Al Jefferson to take Detroit to the next level, at least if he continues making strides defensively and improves at the free throw line. A rim-rolling, layup-erasing, rebound-hoarding big man can still be the best player on a great team.
And the Pistons, due to shrewd decision-making by franchise czar Stan Van Gundy, have surrounded Drummond with the supporting cast to become one. Caldwell-Pope has the makings of a revved-up 3-and-D role player – assuming he gets that three-point shooting thing down. He’s already a borderline all-league defender, though, and made more plays off the dribble in 2015-16 than he did in the previous two seasons combined. Like Harris, a versatile, bucket-getting forward who shot a would-be career high 37.5 percent from three during his half season in Detroit, Caldwell-Pope probably won’t develop into the elusive third star the Pistons need beside Drummond and Reggie Jackson.
Johnson, on the other hand, just might do it. Those semi-realistic odds aren’t reflected in his rookie-year statistics, but also don’t convey the package of tools the 20 year old could have at his disposal down the line. At 6-foot7, 245 pounds, he’s a stout, aggressive defender with the foot speed of a player much lighter, and showcased his burgeoning ball handling talent with the USA Select Team this summer. If Johnson’s jumper ever comes around – he shot 6-of-10 from three against the Cleveland Cavaliers in four playoff games – look out.
3. Milwaukee Bucks
Core: Michael Carter-Williams (24), Khris Middleton (24), Giannis Antetokounmpo (21), Jabari Parker (21), Thon Maker (19)
Middleton is the Bucks’ best player right now. He likely won’t be by this time next year and almost definitely won’t be by the time Milwaukee is ready to seriously compete, but it’s true for now nonetheless, and speaks volumes of just how good Jason Kidd’s team could be in the present and future.
Antetokounmpo, of course, is the player who’s bound to snatch that status away from Middleton eventually and most believe already owns it. His role shift to full-time primary playmaker just before the All-Star break last season coincided with both stat-stuffing across the box score and a nightly highlight worthy of his unfair physical profile. The 21 year old is close to being a monster. But Antetokounmpo isn’t one quite yet, and won’t be until he makes defenders pay for going under screens and learns to dominate the action without dominating the ball. It will come.
In an alternate timeline, Parker might be the Bucks’ new face of the franchise. He’s just not quite as dynamic as Antetokounmpo, though, a relative deficiency owed to his natural evolution into a playmaking power forward from primary-scoring small forward. Carter-Williams is probably headed elsewhere; he’s redundant with Antetokounmpo playing point guard, and was effectively replaced in the rotation when John Hammond signed Matthew Dellavedova this summer. Maker is one of the league’s biggest mysteries, but he sure is an alluring one – especially as a cog of the long-limbed, position-less machine Milwaukee is building.
2. New Orleans Pelicans
Core: Langston Galloway (24), Terrence Jones (24), Anthony Davis (23), Buddy Hield (22)
The Pelicans barely qualified for this exercise. Jones, after finishing the regular season with a string of DNP-CDs (Did Not Play — Coach’s Decision) and sitting for the entire first round of the playoffs, perhaps shouldn’t be considered a “likely rotation rotation player.” But he showed real two-way ability in 2013-14 as a second-year pro, and would be an ideal complement to Anthony Davis up front in Alvin Gentry’s go-go system if he consistently taps into those talents going forward.
Plus, Davis is just too valuable to bypass New Orleans here. No player we covered here – or will be covering at No. 1, actually – carries more weight in his team’s ranking than the former All-NBA First Teamer. A down year for Davis at 22 would be a career year for past All-Stars, and his 2015-16 warrants a bold asterisk anyway. The Pelicans were absolutely ravaged by injuries last season; no player in the league, with the possible exception of LeBron James, could withstand those absences and maintain his pre-established pace. There still might not be a player in basketball with a brighter future than Davis.
Hield may be a limited player for the duration of his career. He’s just not a high-level playmaker despite his tireless efforts to evolve into one, and doesn’t have the physical profile or innate awareness to be a plus-plus defender. The premium on world-class shooters is lasting, though, and Hield could very well be the league’s next great marksman. Galloway, meanwhile, is a dogged defender who can defend both backcourt spots and play spot minutes at point guard. He’s useful as a streaky shooter. If Galloway’s ever a reliably good one, the Pelicans will have found themselves a steal in free agency.
1. Minnesota Timberwolves
Core: Shabazz Muhammad (23), Kris Dunn (22), Zach LaVine (21), Tyus Jones (21), Andrew Wiggins (21), Karl-Anthony Towns (20)
There may not be a single player in the league the Timberwolves would trade for Towns. Perhaps no sophomore since LeBron has been more obviously destined for transcendence. Such high praise sounds like hyperbole, and most league followers would agree it is. But even those “naysayers” wouldn’t deny how likely it is that Towns will eventually be an All-Star five times over. In our estimation, he’s the closest thing there is in the NBA to a franchise player under the age of 25.
Wiggins isn’t too far behind him in the that pecking order, either. All the recent criticism of Minnesota’s hyper-athletic wing obscures the fact that he bumped his true shooting percentage to league average in 2015-16 while simultaneously upping his usage and lowering his turnover rate, a difficult feat. The 21 year old took subtle, encouraging steps as a pick-and-roll ball handler and three-point shooter over the course of his sophomore season, too, while continuing to flash lockdown ability on the other end of the floor. But all some decide to focus on are Wiggins’ flaws, each of which fall under the umbrella of attributes he’ll definitely improve upon with age and experience – and are weaknesses an overwhelming majority of young players possess.
If there’s a double standard for Wiggins, there definitely isn’t one for LaVine. He’s Jamal Crawford on springs, an offensive player so naturally smooth and explosive it almost seems impossible. And after shifting to shooting guard full time over the final half of last year, the two-time Slam Dunk Contest champion suffered far fewer of the lapses in judgement that plagued him on the ball. Shocking, right? But LaVine, for all his gifts, isn’t the surefire star his fan base believes. He lacks the knack and nuance of a born scorer like Wiggins, and doesn’t see the floor well enough to leverage his size and athleticism into primary ball handler status. Major questions about his long-term defensive outlook pervade.
The Timberwolves’ embarrassment of riches doesn’t end there. Many believe Tom Thibodeau has already chosen to supplant Ricky Rubio with Dunn, the No. 5 pick of June’s draft and a rare rookie who figures to contribute right away and still has a lot of room to grow. Muhammad’s game has clear holes but frequently hears his name in trade winds for a reason, and Jones won Summer League MVP after leading his undermanned squad to the championship game.
