Now that Jimmer Fredette‘s college career has come to an end, it’s time to look at his NBA potential. Tyler Hansbrough, J.J. Redick and Stephen Curry stirred similar controversy when their record-breaking careers ended and the NBA horizon loomed. Take a look as we debate the potential of arguably the best player in college basketball.
Stud by Dylan Murphy
He’s already got the one name moniker that has penetrated the furthest depths of the basketball universe. He’s got the killer crossover, the pull-up three. If there were ever anyone to personify Gus Johnson‘s famous “Rise and Fire,” it’s Jimmer. He’s got the on-court flare, the off-court humility and the swagger to carry a dreadful combination of poor rebounding and minimal outside shooting to the Sweet 16, and nearly the Elite Eight. So who’s to say he can’t be an NBA star as well?
I understand the naysayers. He’s shoot-first. He’s a tweener. He has J.J. Redick and Kyle Korver written all over him. At worst, I’d agree. But at best, we’re looking at another Stephen Curry. Their college career paths are remarkably similar, along with their styles of play. It wasn’t Curry’s athleticism or handle that facilitated his graceful slithering in and out of opposing defenses. It was an eclectic combination of head fakes, hesitations and superb court vision that allowed him to outmaneuver the overly aggressive and physical defenders that define college basketball. The NBA is full of the worst and best kind of this bunch: supremely athletic defenders obsessed with SportsCenter-type swats as opposed to staying in front of their man. This is what Jimmer is primed to take advantage of.
For those questioning his sometimes sub-par shot selection, fear not. Sitting in the middle of his team’s scoring pecking order will force Jimmer to temper his trigger-happy right hand. Don’t expect him, however, to completely overhaul his game. The NBA has often proved that college stars do not adjust well to a minimal NBA role (see Adam Morrison). That said, Jimmer will not become a chucker. He’ll pay his dues at first, providing an off-the-bench scoring explosion. Once he displays his potential, he’ll unleash the full power of his superior basketball intelligence.
Will he be a top NBA player? Probably not. But basketball IQ is an underrated facet of NBA scorers. A thunderous LeBron dunk may look more impressive, but a simple pump fake leading to a short jumper is just as effective. That’s how Jimmer will make his money.
Dud by Jaimie Canterbury
It’s pretty much a general consensus that Jimmer Fredette is the best scorer in the nation. You’d be hard-pressed to find someone that would argue otherwise. However, great college scorers do not always transition well to the NBA. As of now, it’s up in the air as to whether or not Fredette will be successful at the next level. When push comes to shove, his lack of defensive principles will hold him back.
Amongst collegiate competition, Jimmer is as good as they come. But the college game and the NBA game are night and day. Throughout Jimmer’s career at BYU, there was never a time when he was not the No. 1 option. It’s going to be difficult for him to transition from the top of the tower to the bottom of the totem pole. Now that the green light has turned into a yellow light, it’s going to be interesting to see how Jimmer reacts. He won’t be able to get hot and go on scoring binges when he’s not the main guy.
What can really end up hurting him is that he has shown (particularly in last week’s Sweet 16 game) that he has trouble defending. If he has trouble staying in front of Erving Walker, can he stay in front of John Wall, Chris Paul or Derrick Rose? That alone can scare NBA scouts away from drafting him. Frankly, his success on the next level will be measured by his ability to defend.
Jimmer’s undeveloped defensive foundation will hold him back immensely at the next level. At BYU, he never really faced the best competition throughout the season and therefore never had to defend any high-caliber guards. His defense was simply outscoring his matchup. Those days have come to an end. He has also built a habit of conserving energy on defense for the offensive end. In the NBA, he won’t be able to do that. Last week against Florida, he looked exhausted from struggling to keep up with Walker and his shooting suffered from his fatigue (scoring zero points in the overtime period).
There is plenty of room for improvement on the defensive end for Fredette. Until a significant improvement is made, he will have a hard time keeping up on the next level. He has no choice but to learn to defend, because he is better than a specialty role player (i.e. Kyle Korver). And if he wants to fulfill his star potential, defense is the key.
What do you think? What will Jimmer Fredette do at the next level?
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