2016-17 Record: 49-33 (4th in East)
Players Added: Carrick Felix (FA), Tim Frazier (Trade with NOP), Jodie Meeks (FA), Devin Robinson (FA), Mike Scott (FA), Donald Sloan (FA), Michael Young (FA)
Players Lost: Bojan Bogdanovic (FA), Trey Burke (FA), Brandon Jennings (FA)
Projected Team MVP: John Wall
John Wall is very, very good at basketball. The former No. 1 pick “broke out” at the age of 26 a year ago, averaging 23.1 points, 10.7 assists and 4.2 rebounds in what was his best individual season as a professional. The 6’4 point guard isn’t a flawless player in that there are still real questions about his long-range shooting (32.7 percent from three a season ago) but Wall’s ability to facilitate and create for others at the point of attack is elite and he has improved vastly as an individual scorer.
On the defensive end, Wall sneakily wasn’t as good a season ago as he had been previously and much of that can likely be attributed to a massive offensive workload. Those defensive issues were on display when he allowed Atlanta’s Dennis Schröder free reign in a first round playoff series but, when engaged, Wall can be a game-changer given his length and burst and he actually averaged a career-best in steals (2.0 per game) last season.
Is there any reason to see Wall dropping off? Probably not, at least for this season. He just turned 27 years old and, while there is plenty of mileage on his body, Wall’s athletic gifts and feel for the game should be able to translate into off-the-charts production once again. There is no reason to doubt, especially after this offseason, he is one of the best players in the Eastern Conference today.
Team X-Factor: Otto Porter
Otto Porter is now an exceptionally wealthy individual and he earned it. The 24-year-old forward signed a nine-figure offer sheet with the Brooklyn Nets that was quickly matched and, while he isn’t quite the star-level player that you may assume given that compensation, Porter is a wildly important piece for the Wizards.
Much of the hype surrounding the former No. 3 pick came in the form of his three-point shooting a year ago, when he led the league for long stretches before settling in at 43.4 percent from three for the season. The big question is whether that can be duplicated moving forward but Porter Jr. appears to be a legitimate knock-down shooter and that plays (very) well alongside the backcourt combination of Wall and Bradley Beal.
Moving forward, shooting isn’t the only unknown, though, and Porter needs to continue growing in order to justify his status as the No. 3 option on a would-be contender. His length and feel are encouraging defensively but, as of now, Porter isn’t a lock-down defender by any stretch and improvement there would go a long way. The Wizards can (and likely will) be very good if Porter can simply be the player he was in his contract year but, given the other pieces (the established guards and older frontcourt players), he is the one member of the starting five with significant growth potential that needs to be unlocked.
Best Case Scenario:
The Wizards are (very) confident in themselves right now. John Wall went on record to say he believes he’s the best point guard in the East and, within the confines of the same piece, stud shooting guard Bradley Beal declared that Washington is “the team to beat” in the conference this season. While they might be feeling themselves a bit much, there is no reason to think that the Wizards could not finish with the East’s best record in 2017-2018.
Is it likely? Maybe not, but Washington returns virtually everyone of note from last season’s squad and it is safe to project more contributions from Kelly Oubre and the oft-injured Ian Mahinmi. Scott Brooks’ team will need the same lights-out performance from Porter and Beal (plus Wall’s greatness) to accomplish their lofty goals but there does not appear to be a guaranteed 55-win team in the conference and, once the Wizards woke up a season ago, they were playing at that kind of level.
Worst Case Scenario:
Every member of the Wizards’ starting five appeared in at least 76 games a year ago and that might not be replicable. We’ve tried not to “predict” injury in this space but, for a team with real questions on its bench, Washington absolutely needs quality health (at least from Wall and Beal) to play at the level they project.
Beyond simple health, there is some concern that Porter could regress as a shooter and Gortat (who remains wildly underrated nationally) isn’t getting any younger at the age of 33. It is hard to see a scenario in which the Wizards don’t secure a top-five seed in the East barring full-fledged disaster but it isn’t a given that they can top 49 wins from a year ago and many would attribute a “status quo” season as a failure given the sky-high expectations.
