Earning the right to play the Golden State Warriors or San Antonio Spurs in the first round of the playoffs is a losing proposition. The reigning champs are perhaps the best team ever and Gregg Popovich’s club isn’t far behind them. Not only does a clash between the Warriors and Spurs in the Western Conference Finals seem imminent, but the winner of that series will be a prohibitive favorite to hoist the Larry O’Brien Trophy two weeks later.
But don’t tell that to the Dallas Mavericks, Utah Jazz, or Houston Rockets. With the regular season on its last legs, that trio is duking it out for the chance to face Golden State or San Antonio when the playoffs finally tip off on April 16 – and it all comes down to the next three nights after 80 games and almost six months of play.
Who will emerge from the crowd? We outline the scenarios of each ultimately doomed playoff hopeful below hours before the league’s pivotal final Monday of the regular season.
Dallas Mavericks
At 41-39 and seventh in the West, Rick Carlisle’s squad could actually earn the fifth or sixth seed or be left on the postseason sidelines entirely depending on its last pair of games.
The biggest comes Monday night, when the Mavericks visit the Jazz; they’ll clinch a playoff berth with a victory at Vivint Smart Home Arena. And even if Dallas loses in Salt Lake City, its chances of a postseason appearance still seem good. The Mavericks’ season finale comes against the Spurs on Wednesday from American Airlines Center, and it’s unlikely San Antonio, locked into the league’s second-best record, will play its regulars normal minutes – or any at all.
But Dallas, like everyone else, would prefer to avoid the Warriors or Spurs in the first round. Dirk Nowitzki and the rest will fight like hell to win its last two games and move up to No. 6 out west, affording them a matchup with the Oklahoma City Thunder or maybe even the Los Angeles Clippers. Gulp.
The Memphis Grizzlies and Portland Trail Blazers complicate that possibility. If Dave Joerger’s ragtag group wins either of its last two games and the Mavericks fail to win out, Memphis will play Oklahoma City or Los Angeles. Portland would secure the fifth seed with a win in its finale, but could move down to seventh place, too, because it lost a head-to-head series with Dallas and is just a half game up on the Blazers.
Got that? Bottom line: The Mavericks need a victory of their own or a loss by the Jazz to make the playoffs. Needless to say, keep an eye on tonight’s game in Utah.
Utah Jazz
The Rockets hold the tiebreaker over the Jazz should both finish the season 41-41. Though the teams split their head-to-head series, Houston’s conference record would be better than Utah’s under the scenario in which both teams go .500 on the year. That’s key to remember going forward.
Still, the Jazz’s road to the postseason is pretty simple: Win one of their last two games and hope for a Houston loss, or win out. The problem is that these last contests are of the uniquely difficult variety. American Airlines Center will be absolutely rocking on Monday night, and Staples Center will be perhaps the most emotional scene of the season 48 hours from now. The Los Angeles Lakers aren’t any good, but the aura surrounding the last game of Kobe Bryant’s career is a major mitigating factor to normal expectations.
The only scenario in which Utah vaults to the six seed is going undefeated, Memphis losing out, and Dallas splitting its last two games. Impossible? Definitely not. Likely? Doubtful.
Either way, games 81 and 82 on the Jazz’s regular season schedule loom very, very large. You’ll already be tuning in come Wednesday for Kobe’s swan song, but we highly recommend watching what transpires against the Mavericks on Monday night, too. This game will be awesome.
Houston Rockets
Here’s the position James Harden’s team finds itself in with two games left to play in 2015-16: Win out and hope for the best.
The only way Houston, a popular title pick before the season tipped off last fall, will make the playoffs is if it beats the Minnesota Timberwolves and Sacramento Kings while the Jazz lose one of their last two games. Not ideal, obviously, but also not completely implausible. The Rockets’ last-gasp chance at the seventh seed is going undefeated and watching Dallas go winless. Less likely.
Would missing out on the postseason entirely prove better for this organization’s wayward culture than being easy prey for the Warriors or Spurs? That such a question bears asking at all explains the extent of disappointment that is Houston’s season. And either way, the Rockets – just like those of the Mavericks and Jazz – will be done playing soon enough.
