For some reason, doesn’t it feel like Damian Lillard and John Wall are always being compared to each other? This argument isn’t ending anytime soon. The two recent Dime Magazine cover boys are both aiming to make the playoffs and the All-Star Game this year. The 23-year-old Lillard is coming off a Rookie Of The Year season that saw him produce some incredible numbers (38.6 minutes, 19.0 points and 6.5 assists per game) while the 23-year-old Wall helped engineer one of the greatest midseason turnarounds in recent NBA history.
Washington is going all in to make the playoffs, as seen in their latest trade with Phoenix that netted them Marcin Gortat, and Portland spent the summer arming their bench to give them a boost once the spring months hit.
Both players are two of the best young point guards in the league. But which guy is better: Damian Lillard or John Wall? We argue. You decide.
*** *** ***
DAMIAN LILLARD
Last season, Damian Lillard was undoubtedly the best rookie in the NBA.
With his unwavering quiet confidence and poise, the Blazers’ first pick in the 2012 NBA Draft added himself to a growing crop of young talented guards in the league. It was one of the most remarkable rookie years in recent memory, full of clutch shots, effortless shooting displays and complete mastery in floor management. There haven’t been many first-year players that looked as polished as Lillard right out of the gate, as he scored 23 points and dished out 11 assists in his first NBA game. Playing at Weber State and ending up as the sixth overall draft pick means you’re really, really good and Lillard showed us just that. In just one season, he’s gone from relative unknown to an NBA enthusiast’s wet dream on the cusp of superstardom.
Still, when discussing a higher potential ceiling, Lillard is rarely mentioned in the first or second tier of great guards. Players like John Wall, who has shown flashes of greatness but is mostly inconsistent, often gets the nod from critics. At 6-4, Wall is blessed with ideal height and his speed and athleticism in the open court is second to none. Now in his fourth year in the NBA, he’s back to full health and looking to show why he was drafted first overall in 2010. And at only 23, he’s still so young that it’s impossible to deny his potential.
However, I’d take Lillard and it’s not really close.
Before divulging into the statistics, let’s look at one of the most crucial aspects in sports – health. Check out Lillard’s durability: he started all 82 games of his NBA rookie campaign and was the leader in total minutes played. It’s not necessarily a skill but a player’s production depends solely on their ability to stay on the floor and the Blazers guard has proven he’s capable of doing so. On the other hand, Wall has never played a full season (the 66-game lockout year doesn’t count either). Of course, Lillard has had a far shorter career thus far and Wall’s relentless attacking style leaves him more susceptible to injury. But Wall has openly admitted to poor eating habits affecting his health, which therefore led to his lingering injuries during his career. You’ll never have to worry about Lillard’s work ethic (see: his Rookie of the Year award acceptance speech) as he’s arguably the best conditioned player in the league.
Though in different circumstances, last season was a great year for comparison because both athletes were 22 years old. While Wall was a one-and done player at Kentucky, Lillard spent four years in college, which explains why his transition to the NBA felt so seamless. His game was already far more mature than his peers and it shows when matching his 2012 statistics with his rookie peers, as well as veterans such as Wall.
After one full season, Lillard is already a better all-around scorer and probably has been since high school. He had a higher shooting percentage on his two-pointers even though he had less attempts, shot more efficiently from the charity stripe and was far superior from three-point land – 37 percent to Wall’s 27 percent – all while playing 1,500 more minutes. Wall makes his living in transition and inside the arc, as 15 of his 16 averaged shots per game in 2012 were twos. However, he’s still struggling from the perimeter – a woeful 11 percent from behind the arc this preseason – and in today’s game where the three-point shot is becoming an essential, Wall may never reach his potential if he can’t threaten opponents with an outside jumper.
Wall is the taller player so he trumps in the rebounding and assist totals, and that’s impressive seeing how the Wizards needed him as their primary scorer. But the Blazers also leaned on their young guard to be aggressive and score the rock in pivotal moments instead of looking to distribute. And for all of his assertiveness, Lillard still maintained his poise, averaging only 3.0 turnovers to Wall’s 3.5 while rarely being called for fouls, averaging only two per game. With draft picks C.J. McCollum and Allen Crabbe on board and veteran Mo Williams teaming up with Wesley Matthews, Lillard now has proven perimeter shooters at his disposal so his dimes should increase while he maintains his overall tenacity.
Speaking of defense, Lillard was woeful last season and contributed to the Blazers being the fifth-worst defense in the league. He allowed 1.01 points per possession during one-on-one matchups and opponents shot over 45 percent when he guarded them. However, I’ll chalk that up as tired legs from playing a full 82 games and a lack of quality depth in the backcourt which forced him to play Gladiator-esque minutes. Wall played 49 games and had fresh legs after the All-Star break and we therefore saw what he could do when healthy. Yet, Lillard has the speed and reach to become a great defender this season, especially with the acquisition of center Robin Lopez.
This season, Wall already seems frustrated and it’s due to his lack of improvement on offense. He stated recently that he was upset with his preseason performance – shooting under 35 percent from the field – and his offensive deficiencies have affected his on-ball defense, one of his pivotal strengths that often trigger his near-unstoppable transition game. Maybe it’s the pressure of receiving a max contract, but too often Wall lets a few mistakes affect his entire game and it sets the wrong tone for his teammates.
Lillard, who led the Blazers to a 5-2 preseason record and averaged over 20 points, is a less gifted athlete but doesn’t let his defensive woes alter his overall style of play.
Both players are 23, but one seems to improve with every game while the other regresses. And it’s not the one you’d expect. Lillard has been doubted his entire basketball career while Wall was heralded as a surefire lottery pick since early high school. Lillard doesn’t take anything for granted, and plays with a killer instinct seldom seen from players his age. And though Wall is healthy, he’s looked subpar thus far and in three NBA seasons, we’ve seen minimal progression coupled with frequent moments of stagnancy.
Meanwhile, I’ll put money down now that Lillard will improve in multiple statistical categories in 2013.
Though he has the numbers to back him up, Lillard’s complete brilliance isn’t necessarily quantifiable which makes his ceiling sky high. Look past the stats and you’ll see a guard with moxie, enormous talent and a will to win.
And that’s why he gets my nod.
-QUENTON NARCISSE
Keep reading to hear the argument for Wall…
JOHN WALL
The argument of who’s the better player between the Washington Wizards’ John Wall and the Portland Trail Blazers’ Damian Lillard is one of the most back-and-forth battles in basketball. It seems where one player lacks, the other succeeds. One things is for certain: Wall and Lillard are both on track to break into elite point guard status sooner rather than later. Here is why John Wall is a step ahead of Lillard in that battle.
John Wall had his best season last year, which is pretty remarkable since he only played in 49 games due to a knee injury. During those 49 games (started in 42), he took a dismal Wizards team that couldn’t beat the worst teams in the league to a .500 basketball club, even with the loss of an injured Bradley Beal, while putting up 18.5 PPG and dishing out 8.0 APG.
There is quick, and then there is John Wall. He’s one of the fastest players we’ve ever seen at his position. You can’t argue with that statement, as evidenced in the clip below.
Last season, Wall turned into the ultimate teammate, making Trevor Ariza and Martell Webster look like scoring machines. Wall’s advanced stats shot through the roof last season, resulting in the Wizards extending him to a max contract worth $80 million. He became a better-rounded player and leader and a bigger headache for defenders.
Wall’s court vision is scary good. Mix in his willingness to be aggressive, and what you get is an elite player waiting to erupt. Wall has a passing rating of 11.7, compared to Lillard’s 7.4. His spot-on dimes are only getting better as he digs deeper into his skills. His aggressiveness to drive to the basket and get to the charity stripe is among the best in the league in his position. Wall gets to the free throw line 14.1 percent of the time, compared to Lillard’s 9.1 percent.
One of the negatives in his offense in particular is his unsteady lack of awareness. In his first two seasons, his lack of a shooting game shrunk the floor, allowing the defense to dictate what the Wizards set up on offense. While defenders simply couldn’t keep up with Wall’s quickness and aggressiveness to get in the lane, his poor shooting was a huge liability for the Wizards. However, improvements to his shooting performance (discussed below) last season allowed the court to open up as space was created for wings to knockdown high-percentage shots, particularly the corner three. In fact, Martell Webster shot a stunning 60 percent from corner threes with John Wall on the floor with him at the same time.
The Washington Wizards had an offensive rating of 105.3 points (per 100 possessions) when Wall was on the court compared to 98.1 points (per 100 possessions) when he was off the floor. When Wall was on the floor with the best Wizards lineup, he assisted on 44 percent of the Wizards’ field goals. In addition, the team shot with an effective field goal percentage of 49.9 with Wall in the lineup, as opposed to the team shooting an effective field goal percentage of 46 with Wall on the bench.
John Wall’s defense is very solid for a third-year player that is known for his lightning quickness. This is one of the biggest differences between Wall and Lillard, as the 2013 Rookie of the Year has a tendency of being lazy on defense. Wall’s pick-and-roll defense (0.84 rating, per Synergy) is respectable among NBA point guards, as he uses his speed, athleticism and body to maneuver and slide around screens. Wall is very solid at closing out opponents and very persistent with on-ball defense. He is consistent at using his speed and athleticism to get back on defense and is more than willing to chase down the ball.
Per 82games.com, he had a plus-0.5 on/off defensive rating last season, which was better than Chris Paul (plus-5.4), Deron Williams (plus-4.2), Derrick Rose (plus-3.1), Stephen Curry (plus-5.6) and Damian Lillard (plus-2.4). Wall’s defense is expected to improve even more after training this offseason with one of the best perimeter defenders of all time, Gary “The Glove” Payton.
Arguably the biggest drawback in Wall’s game over the last three years has been his lack of a long-range game and an inconsistent midrange game. In his first two seasons, Wall attempted 157 three-pointers and only saw 37 of those attempts go through the net. Last season, Wall connected on 12 of his 45 shots from beyond the arc. Therefore, he stills has a ton of work to do with his long distance game.
However, his biggest improvement last season was with his midrange game, increasing his field goal percentage from his rookie and sophomore seasons of 41.6 percent to 44.1 percent last year. In the last two months of the season (March and April), Wall shot 46 percent from the field. Compare that to Damian Lillard’s shooting of 45 percent in the last two months of the season. Better yet, Wall’s 46 percent was essentially matched by the point guard who is widely considered to be the best pure shooter in the game, Stephen Curry, who also shot 46 percent from the field in March and April 2013.
While Damian Lillard is a naturally more gifted shooter, the $80-million 23-year-old out of Kentucky is on the verge of joining the elite point guards who dominate this league today.
*The statistics above were provided by 82games.com and are based on per 48-minute basis
-ELIZABETH BENSON
Who would you take?
Follow Quenton on Twitter at @QGNarcisse.
Follow Elizabeth on Twitter at @gobibs.
Follow Dime on Twitter at @DimeMag.
Become a fan of Dime Magazine on Facebook HERE.
