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There has been one truth more fundamental to the Halo franchise than any other. One property that defines it. And that’s that Halo Sells Xboxes. But what happens when Halo stops selling Xboxes? It’s a question Microsoft has to answer, because it’s about to become the case.
Let’s start with the most basic problem here, which is simply this:
The Xbox One Doesn’t Need Halo
This sounds deranged, to fanboys, but it’s a simple matter of business sense. So far, the Xbox One has moved five million units. It’s on track to crack ten million by the end of the year, a near-certainty now that there’s a $400 version of the console. By the time Halo 5: Guardians rolls around, if the pace holds steady, the Xbox One will have twenty million units sold. If things go poorly, it’ll have sold fifteen million units. The last console to do those numbers in that span of time had Pac-Man as a killer app.
It seems unlikely that Master Chief is going to move that needle by any substantial measure. Halo 4 wasn’t a failure, and moved nine million copies. But ask anybody who can read NPD numbers: It didn’t sell any Xbox 360s. By the time the first next-gen Halo game shows up, the vast majority of its audience will have shelled out for a One; truthfully a fair number of its audience has bought a One already.
You’re Going To Be Pretty Damn Sick Of Halo By Fall 2015
These games always have a ridiculous marketing push. The endorsement deals. The snack food ads. The stupid thinkpieces about the endorsement deals and the snack food ads. But Halo 5 is going to put them all to shame, because that’s when the TV series, Microsoft’s big attempt to make Halo mainstream with names like Steven Spielberg, hits Showtime.
That will likely mark the point where all but the hardcore have had enough. It’s hard to make a TV series work in the first place, and to be honest, it doesn’t really have a lot to work with. The series has never needed more than a thin excuse to shoot at the aliens (or your friends) and make them fall down, so it’s never really developed anything that makes it unique.
The “ancillary merchandise” is sturdy, one supposes, and Forward Unto Dawn is an OK future war movie. But what’s the hook for people who haven’t played, or don’t care about, the game? It seems likely the series will struggle with that. Worse, this is Microsoft’s bid to turn the Xbox One into the new Netflix. That’s a lot of weight to rest on a rather slender reed.
What’s It All Cost?
Finally, there’s the return on investment. Halo 4‘s budget has never been disclosed, although Phil Spencer admitted that when all was said and done, it was Microsoft’s most expensive game to date. It’s unlikely that a prestige game being built from the ground up as a showcase for the Xbox One is going to come in any cheaper.
The game, the TV series, and the advertising for the two of them is going to cost hundreds of millions of dollars. That the game will make money isn’t in doubt, albeit the series might have a bit of a push to break even depending on how it’s received. But if the series implodes, or the game doesn’t sell an enormous number of copies, it’s going to be a disaster.
And the series is showing its age. Halo, when the fifth game comes out, will be pushing fifteen years old as a franchise. Gaming franchises rarely age well, and Halo has a problem in that it’s kept aiming squarely at fourteen-year-olds over that decade and a half. Most of the original Halo players are not still drinking neon-green soda and munching zesty corn chips, at least not without some chemical assistance. The series is in the odd position of trying to cash in on nostalgia while still being cutting edge, and that’s asking a lot.
A Series In The Past
When Halo just had to sell a lot of copies and occasionally be a flagship title, it was one thing. But Microsoft is putting far too much demand on a series that may not be able to take the strain. So, enjoy Halo 5: Guardians: It might be the last time we see the Chief.
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Considering it’s set up as the second trilogy, I’m gonna go ahead and assume they’re going to make more than enough money to warrant ending it with 6, if they end it at all.
I thought I read that as well. When 343 picked it up from Bungie after Reach, 4 was supposed to be the start of a new trilogy. As long as 5 sells (which I’m sure it will) they’ll do 6, and probably throw in some one offs like ODST or Reach.
I’m going to respectfully disagree, with exclusives being harder to come by these days I have a hard time seeing Microsoft just up and deciding that yeah, lets shut down the Halo train.
Exclusives have never really been hard to come by, especially if the companies have a good first party studio infrastructure in place which is exactly what Microsoft are working towards. This day & age, and with this gen in particular gamers are hungry for new ip, look at titles like the Last of Us or the upcoming Order & Quantum Break or even closer Watch Dogs, these are the titles that generate the most buzz, moreso than the next installments in continuing franchises. Also, with new first party studios comes desire within the studios themselves for new ip. I’m sure 343 is fine with cutting their teeth on a title as big as Halo, but there will come a time in the very near future when they want to do their own thing. I could see a sixth entry for sure, and there’s no doubt Microsoft will be trying to jump start the series, but it’s simply too soon for an already mega successful franchise to somehow become even more successful, especially looking at the data that shows a swift drop off in Halo 4s mp community. The tv series could potentially see a new interest from a wider market, but it’s not a market that would be willing to turn to gaming to continue a story, Game of Thrones can rarely even push viewers to purchase a 10 dollar book, much less a 450$ investment for some unknown undertaking. I’d say the tv series won’t move the needle much in sales even if it is a huge success. Like the article said, every gaming franchise eventually falls off for a generation or so before being potentially rebooted, MS have simply milked this one dry, they’ve rarely left their fans hungry for a new installment so malaise is bound to set in sooner rather than later
I’m not suggesting that Halo is/is going to be the flagship of the One. I’m just saying that I find it extremely unlikely that this will be the last title, given how they’ve already said this was going to be a trilogy and the franchise still makes money.
“Why ‘Halo 5: Guardians’ Will End The Series”
Spoiler alert: It won’t.
Yeah this won’t be the last Halo title in the same way that Call of Duty: Ghosts was the last COD. This might be the Halo where interest in it starts to decline but it won’t be a sudden drop off.
“It’s hard to make a TV series work in the first place, and to be honest, it doesn’t really have a lot to work with.”
And I’m going to have to respectfully disagree with you on this one, Dan. Some of the books are very well written and would make for a fine series. The games’ plots are kinda thin but there’s a lot in the Halo universe to explore.
That and if whoever is running the show (it isn’t Spielberg, let’s be honest, he’s just putting his name on it) should give Nathan Fillion a call about reprising his role as Sergeant Eddie Buck for at least a cameo or supporting role.
“Microsoft’s big attempt to make Halo mainstream with names like Steven Spielberg, hits Showtime.”
Uhhh, you’re aware that Halo is already pretty mainstream right now, right?
Not really. Ask yourself this: How many people who aren’t your fellow nerds read the comics, or the tie-in novels? We tend to fool ourselves that game franchises are more “mainstream” than they actually are, but considering that X-Men sells more tickets in a day than the top selling Halo game sells over its lifetime.
@Dan
Comics and tie-in novels aren’t mainstream things, regardless of the franchise. I doubt anyone other than my fellow nerds read Star Wars novels and comics, either. Does that mean Star Wars isn’t mainstream?
My GOD you are wrong. Halo CREATED Xbox. Halo 5 will not be the end, they already stated Halo 4 was the start of a brand new trilogy, so there will be at least 1 more. Also, they have the TV/XOne deal with Spielberg based on a Halo Series. Halo will be around for a very long time… Halo is the Xbox’s Mario, and it isn’t going anywhere. Xbox one needs an exclusive series to be different than PS4 and it has that in this, Gears and Forza
For what its worth, if there was no halo coming out for xbox one, I would never have bought the system
As a huge Halo fanboy, I have no interest in 5. I thought 343 studios ruined the series. It didn’t even seem like Halo. The multiplayer was a COD clone and the campaign was garbage. The covenant was a joke, shit was infuriating.
Its not supposed to be the same Halo. Its a new trilogy for a reason. They didn’t ruin Halo if anything they made it more interesting. Would you rather they had come up with the same story line of finding another Halo ring and trying to destroy the flood? That would have made it a COD clone. They did the best they could do with what they had to go on and it was brilliant.
btw I have been playing Halo since I was four, my opinion may be skewed.
I think this is the second article I’ve read here speculating that Halo’s gonna die. I don’t really mind, as I’ve never played a Halo game or owned an Xbox, but I can’t help thinking you guys are just pulling this idea straight out of nowhere.
You say the console doesn’t need Halo, without considering the probability that a lot of people out there bought the console with, and somewhat because of, the knowledge that a new Halo would come out on it eventually. Millions of purchases are already in the bag, for sure.
You say we’re gonna be sick of Halo, but I think you might be overestimating the TV series in terms of how many people will watch it, and whether it’ll even make it to air, or last more than one season. I don’t think it’ll really be as ubiquitous as your premise suggests. And the endorsement shit is nothing that didn’t happen with the franchise 2-4 times during the 360 era.
You say it’ll cost too much, and hell, maybe you’re right, but I don’t know if you’re looking at a big enough picture. Even if the TV show did utterly crash and burn, wasting tremendous amounts of money, that wouldn’t really affect the game franchise any more than The Spirits Within’s failure affected Final Fantasy. You still acknowledge that the game will make a profit, without a doubt; and I don’t imagine the game will be expensive enough, or its pool of consumers small enough, for it to only barely break even. It’s gonna be really big, as always, even if it shrinks a little bit from the previous numbers. Even if its profit margin does wind up being narrow (or negative), they’re building assets and tools that’ll also be used for the next game, which’ll thus be much more cost-effective and profitable.
If you’re saying that Halo is only there to sell Xbox’s, it has done its job. This game is the reason I bought mine. There are many other people I know that have done the same. This is an amazing franchise. Even my dad plays this game and he watched Forward Unto Dawn with me. The series wont fail. 343 is doing a great job, I hope they keep it strong like they have.
Go back and look at the NPD numbers: There was a hardware bump, but it wasn’t exactly the sales you expect from a “killer app.”
Wow really ? so are you saying as a sci fi epic alone halo would not exist ? that its only purpose is to sell consoles ?
If that’s the case then 343/Bungie had already messed up. Long before the xbox one came into the scene.
The moment they look the core game experience and spread it out over every medium they could.
Halo doesn’t live to sell consoles, halo fate was long ago torn free from the console. Its a multimedia sci fiction story.
343 doesn’t even see the game as a game anymore. 343 only sees the xbox as one of the many mediums it can tell the story.
Look as the story ark. Only a portion of it is in the campaign, without the books its nearly an incoherent mess between halo 2,3 and 4, without spartan ops and the escalation comics halo 5 will be even more removed from its previous counterpart then ant 2 before it.
This process is only become more prevalent. Hell they used a tv miniseries to introduce 1 character to the series. We have another in the pipe.
Halo is no longer just a game its its a multi platform sci-fi space opera. Those who play halo for the multiplier alone miss the point, those see halo as a campaign to plow through are only seeing a portion of the picture.
Those who think the xbox is all that keeps it alive, are straight up clueless,
More importantly, the xbox one has been in constant flux, between its constant software evolution since its unveiling and now kenect-less version for sale. Along with not having a game built from the ground up to work in harmony with it, determines that Microsoft is yet to play its full hand. As long as those pieces are in the air moving, nothing is settled.
We know what the play station can do, its shown everything it can do. Its got more grunt and can brute force its way through games better then the xbox one can. But all that achieves the PlayStation is that its a better at being a shit computer then the xbox.
The hole shtick for the xbox one was that it was going to change the way we play games. No game has been made to exploit this promise yet, Halo 5 could be that, Frank O’Connor has teased this idea.
As for age, halo, call of duty and battlefield have all hit a wall quite frankly, between them every method of pointing a gun in first person and shooting stuff has been nailed down and drawn out, all 3 have resorted to gimmicks.
If the Xbox one can deliver real change, its yet to be seen, but it hasn’t been disproved yet, its still early days for the console.
Was looking to see if there was any new Halo news and saw this, so I clicked and gave it a read.
Instead of going on about how this article is wrong, as much as I want to, I will just make a correction of facts people keep making. Halo 4, is not the beginning of a trilogy, it was stated by Phil Spencer that “while we originally said ‘trilogy,’ we’ve actually expanded this to more of a saga, so we don’t want to limit the Reclaimer story within a trilogy.”
This writer “Dan Seitz” is an idiot. He puts a title like that on his article, but everyone already knows that this is part of a new TRILOGY. Maybe before Dan writes an article like this he should learn to count to three.
Wow….just wow. Nothing better to write about? Halo is it’s own beast now, xbox was just a cypher. As for the people slagging off Halo 4… Ok, it’s not anything like 2 or 3, but that was the point. Maybe you just sucked royally at it? Even if they did end it at 5, it’s still a fuck tonne better than cod.
There are so many things wrong with this article its not even worth my time.
Halo is now a saga and they said that 4,5, and 6 are part of master chiefs story. No telling what other stories they are going to tell. Halo has one of the biggest followings and is a cash cow there is no way that this is even close to be that last one. Smart move on your part though to get all of us to comment your such a journalistic troll. Go back and read what Microsoft has said and 343 and get your facts straight.
“more than 5 million Xbox One consoles have been sold-in to retailers since our launch” doesnt mean 5 million sold to the public that just means that they put 5 million Xbox Ones on the market. This to me could just still end up biting Microsoft in the ass. They could definitely use the tent pole franchise to help move units.
I would count the Halo series as a plus when the idea first presented itself, but they shot themselves in the foot when they announced that it will also broadcast it on Showtime. Why would you make it easier to access the one thing that was a huge selling point for your console. Not only does the show appear on dual platforms but its reported that it will actually premiere on television first before showing up on Xbox One.
Have to respectfully disagree with this article. Halo and Gears of War are THE reasons I bought an X360 and will again be THE reasons I buy an XB1. Those two franchises alone are worth the investment cost to me, all the other exclusives are an added bonus. The new 343 Halo trilogy that’s been referenced in the comments is common knowledge & pretty obvious there will be at least a Halo 6. And I personally really like what I’ve seen 343 do with Halo 4, MCC, and just recently the Halo 5 multiplayer beta behind the scenes videos. They’re EVOLVING the series with added gameplay elements which makes perfect sense in today’s industry, especially given the series original title (Combat Evolved).