What Are The Odds We Get Free Tacos From Taco Bell’s ‘Steal A Base’ Promo?

Senior Contributor

It’s down to the last four teams in the World Series, with the Dodgers going up against the Cubs and the Yankees facing the Astros. If you don’t care about baseball, though, you may want to follow the game anyway, because once again, you might get a free taco out of the deal.

Yes, Steal A Base, Steal A Taco, Taco Bell’s World Series promotion, is back. The premise is simple: If, during the World Series, any member of either team steals a base, you get a free Doritos Loco taco. If it happens during games one or two, Free Taco Day will be November 1st, between 2 and 6pm, while if it happens on game three through seven, it’ll be November 7th. November 7th will see free tacos on tap either way, however. And the player who steals the base will be dubbed a Taco Hero, which, let’s face it, is probably the highest honor you can bestow for stealing a base.

As we all know, though, these kinds of promotions tend to hinge on very unlikely events. So what are the chances, really, to get a free taco before the 7th? Pretty bad, truth be told. Sabremetrics nerds will tell you the stolen base is an endangered species in modern baseball, as it’s usually not worth the risk. And looking strictly at the postseason, your odds of a free taco are low. The Dodgers have stolen five bases to the Cubs’ three, and the Yankees and Astros have each stolen one base. And early in the series, teams will likely play conservatively for every advantage they can get, so even the National League is less likely to risk a stolen base attempt. Still, if you’re just in it for the tacos, the Dodgers are your new team.

Of course, stolen bases do happen, like Johnny Damon’s dramatic double steal in the 2009 World Series. Sadly, that happened in the fourth game, so we were denied free double tacos, yet another reason for Red Sox fans to curse Damon.

(via Food & Wine)

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