Uproxx’s Awards Forecast offers a weekly look at the front-runners in several key Academy Award races, based on pundit chatter and pre-Oscar awards. (The pundit analysis is based on opinions put forward by major Oscar-tracking outlets, including Vulture, the expert panel at Gold Derby, Indiewire, Awards Daily, The Hollywood Reporter, Variety, and Awards Circuit. Pre-Oscar awards consider recent winners announced by industry and critic organizations that annually recognize achievement in film.)
Attempting to predict what will win Best Picture continues to be elusive this year. The top prize at BAFTA — also known as the British Academy Awards, held Sunday — went to The Revenant, but that’s an award that, as The Hollywood Reporter notes, only sometimes foreshadows what will triumph at the Oscars. That said The Revenant has also surged forward as the odds-on favorite among the experts at Gold Derby, suggesting the saga of survival has more momentum — either real or perceived — behind it as we enter the final lap of the Oscar race (voting closes Feb. 23). In the other five of the big six categories, winner expectations continue to lean toward Iñárritu, DiCaprio, Larson and Stallone, with Supporting Actress still a bit hard to call. Vikander is still our pick, but Kate Winslet also has a shot at sneaking away with it.
A scan of Oscar online pundit picks and other awards suggests that the six films highlighted in the graphic above will walk away winners on Academy Awards. The one I’m least sure of is costume design, as some are calling that category for Sandy Powell and Carol, others are leaning toward Sandy Powell’s other nominated work for Cinderella, and still others think Mad Max: Fury Road, which won the BAFTA in this category, could take it. Given voters’ tendency to reward period costumes, I’m still leaning toward Carol, but wouldn’t be surprised to see either of the others win.