Perhaps a University of Utah law professor will get the chance to argue the validity of a paper in which he suggests Donald Trump could be impeached if he wins the general election. That’s because, according to an interview conducted by the Washington Post with another academic, there’s a good chance that might actually happen come November. Not the impeachment, per se, but Trump‘s victory over Democratic rival Hillary Clinton.
Political historian Allan Lichtman, who serves on the faculty of American University in Washington, D.C., claims Trump will win because of what he dubs the “Keys to the White House.” This “system of true/false statements” isn’t based on the professor’s personal political affiliations or the latest polls, but instead relies on 13 distinct points outlined and discussed in his book, Predicting the Next President: The Keys to the White House.
Per his Washington Post interview, they are:
- Party Mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than after the previous midterm elections.
- Contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination.
- Incumbency: The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president.
- Third party: There is no significant third party or independent campaign.
- Short-term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign.
- Long-term economy: Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms.
- Policy change: The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy.
- Social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term.
- Scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal.
- Foreign/military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs.
- Foreign/military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs.
- Incumbent charisma: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero.
- Challenger charisma: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero.
“Okay,” you’re probably thinking. “That’s a neat system and all, but how exactly does this suggest Clinton won’t reign victorious over the Republican nominee in November?”
Seeing as how the keys cater to the incumbent party, true answers will favor the Democratic nominee whereas false ones will harm her. And if Clinton manages six or more false answers out of the 13 statements above, the systems predicts the incumbent party’s loss. Per Lichtman’s assessment of the election so far “based on the 13 keys, it would predict a Donald Trump victory.” Why? Because Clinton and the Democrats already have five false answers (keys #1, #3, #7, #11 and #12), and Gary Johnson’s current polling indicates a possible sixth (key #4).
“So very, very narrowly, the keys point to a Trump victory,” Lichtman tells the Post. However, he adds the predicted outcome would be more like “a generic Republican victory” since Trump’s unpredictable campaign may “defy all odds and lose even though the verdict of history is in his favor.”
Ultimately this means the current election “could go either way,” so Lichtman isn’t 100 percent sure this time around. Though with 30 years’ worth of correct predictions to back up a model based on research delving as far back as 1860, the good professor’s judgment might not be one to be ignored.
(Via Washington Post)
