Week 3 of the college football season is upon us and, as often happens, it’s a bit of a sleepy Saturday across the country. There aren’t a lot of marquee matchups, but that doesn’t mean there aren’t some intriguing games both from a viewing and betting perspective.
Last week, we got back to our principles and, with that, back on the right side of the book. We won’t be deviating from that path again, as we’ll once again be putting our full trust in ‘dogs and unders this week. Before we get to our Week 3 picks, let’s take a look at how we did last week and where we stand on the season as we roll into Week 3.
Last Week: 4-1
2021 Season: 6-4
Come get these winners (lines via Caesars Sportsbook).
Nevada at Kansas State UNDER 50.5 (Saturday, 2:00 p.m. ET)
I love a sleepy early afternoon under in the Little Apple, and this one is tailor made for me. Kansas State started the season by dominating Stanford in a low scoring affair, then struggled with Southern Illinois until finally putting it together late to avoid a disastrous loss. I think that game woke them up and we’ll see them back to playing K-State football, which is running it and being fundamentally sound on defense to force opponents into long, methodical drives. Nevada isn’t afraid to play that game themselves, and I like this to just come in under this total (which has dropped considerably already since open).
Northwestern at Duke UNDER 49.5 (Saturday, 4:00 p.m. ET)
On a weekend filled with candidates, this has a chance to be the official Sickos Game of the Week. We thought Northwestern would be in that kind of game in the opener against Sparty, only for Michigan State to run them out of their own building, but last week was encouraging, as they could barely score on an FCS opponent but the defense got back to what they do best. As for Duke, well, they’re just not good. There’s a chance this gets away from us because Duke isn’t very good on defense, but I just don’t see the Blue Devils scoring an awful lot. A bonus pick here is to take the Cats -2.5 on the road, but I’m loathe to give out favorites officially in this space again after Week 1.
Virginia (+8.5) at UNC (Saturday, 7:30 p.m. ET)
Too many points in a rivalry game. I know the Tar Heels looked better against Georgia State, but, as mentioned just above, the Panthers just might not be very good this year. I’m a believer in the Hoos to the point of thinking they can keep this within a touchdown, even if Sam Howell’s big play ability is spooky to bet against. We’ll take the candy and, to be honest, I wouldn’t kick a money line sprinkle out of bed.
Auburn at Penn State 1H UNDER 27 (Saturday, 7:30 p.m. ET)
What’s better than taking a big game under? Few things bring me more joy that settling in on Saturday night for the national primetime game and being the guy rooting for no one to score. It’s great, and from an analysis side, these are both two really good defenses that have yet to give up more than 13 points. Now, Auburn’s scored 62 in the first two games against less than stellar opposition so I get the trepidation here, but I expect both of these teams to be in “don’t make the first mistake” mode early on, which is why I’m taking the first half under in this one (I also like the full game just fine, for what it’s worth).
Vanderbilt (+12) vs. Stanford (Saturday, 8:00 p.m. ET)
Oh yes, we’re doing this. It is absolutely hideous, but Stanford is overvalued here. These are two teams that have been all over the place so far, with Stanford looking awful against K-State and then beating up USC and Vanderbilt almost getting shutout by East Tennessee State and then beating Colorado State on the road. I have no idea what the reality is for either of these teams, but it’s hard for me to believe it’s Stanford being two touchdowns better. We’ll find out.
