Hello, friends. It is with a heavy heart that I tell you I am at it again. Despite a 10-plus unit loss week I am back with more picks for you to ride with or fade at your discretion. My feelings will not be hurt. I understand it’s just business.
We will continue to hunt dogs and unders, make coordinated plays and, hopefully, climb out of the hole I have dug myself so quickly this season. Let’s take a look at the damage before we get to this week’s efforts at winners.
Last Week: 8-18
This Season: 19-32-2
That’s really bad! But hopefully the turnaround can begin on Friday night. Let’s begin.
Kansas at Boston College (-21) and UNDER 51 (Friday, 7:30 p.m. ET)
Kansas’ offense is very not good. They scored seven points last week against our beloved Chanticleers in a loss, and things won’t get easier against the Eagles. Defensively, they’re spunky, but I think they’ll get worn down by A.J. Dillon and company and Boston College wins this 34-10 or something.
Maryland at Temple (+7) and UNDER 66.5 (Saturday, 12:00 p.m. ET)
Maryland beat the brakes off of Syracuse last week and this offense appears to be the real deal, but now they go on the road for the first time and, well, this line stinks a bit. I’ll take the Owls (who SP+ has as 1-point dogs) and the Under, because that seems to me like the way Temple keeps this game within reach. Or the Terps score 60 again and I light more money on fire. Who knows?!
Arkansas State (+33) at Georgia (Saturday, 12:00 p.m. ET)
The Dawgs will win this and win easily, but I think they take the foot off the gas late and play a gentlemen’s game for much of the second half. This offense tends not to score in quick strike fashion like Alabama, usually being a touch more methodical even against lesser opponents. That means some fewer possessions and, as such, keeps their margin of victory down a little bit. The key here is to avoid touchdowns by way of the Georgia defense and special teams, but I think the Red Wolves can kick in a backdoor here for us.
NC State (-6.5) at West Virginia and UNDER 45.5 (Saturday, 12:00 p.m. ET)
This line also stinks but I think West Virginia might just really be this bad. It’s going to be a struggle this year in Morgantown and while I think Neal Brown can turn this ship around, right now they just don’t have much going for them. The offense is dismal (not Kansas bad, but not far off) and the Wolfpack should be able to dominate defensively. I think this might be a 24-10 type deal in front of some less than enthused ‘Eers fans.
Pitt at Penn State OVER 53 (Saturday, 12:00 p.m. ET)
Penn State is going to want to score points in bunches and probably can against Pitt. We just need the Panthers to hold up their end of the bargain in this rivalry game and take this thing Over the total.
Army at UTSA (+17) (Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET)
Army looked great against Michigan and almost did the damn thing, but they also love their 10 minute scoring drives and it’s a principle that we take the underdog getting three scores worth of points against Army.
Stanford (+8.5) at UCF (Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET)
I hate it, but I have to have it. Stanford gets K.J. Costello back and while UCF with their freshman QB looked good against FAU (who never sniffed a cover), I think the Cardinal will be competitive in this one. This line keeps creeping up and at over a TD I have to have Stanford, knowing fully well that they just might not have the speed on defense to keep UCF in front of them all day.
UNLV (+18) at Northwestern (Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET)
A similar principle to Army as a three-score favorite, I’ve gotta take the dog here. SP+ has this at about nine so there’s value from an analytics perspective, which would really grind Pat Fitzgerald’s gears I’m sure. The Cats offense should look a lot better than they did against Stanford, but the hope is that UNLV can just stay within reasonable reach.
Georgia Southern at Minnesota UNDER 47.5 (Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET)
I’ve lost an Under with each of these teams so far this season, but that’s no matter. Minnesota tends to play slow in games like these and the Eagles offense isn’t especially explosive. Gophers should win here and without too much issue, but I think it’s in a low-scoring affair.
Colorado State (+10) at Arkansas (Saturday, 4:00 p.m. ET)
I’m not going to lie, I’m mostly just mad at Arkansas for last week and think they’re just very bad right now. The Rams can hang around here and might win outright like they did last year. Gimme the candy.
Arizona State (+14) at Michigan State and UNDER 42 (Saturday, 4:00 p.m. ET)
This year’s Arizona State team plays slow and loves a good defensive showdown. Sparty crushed us last week but against a better opponent I think they’ll play more of the style we’ve come to expect from Michigan State and this will be an ugly, low-scoring slugfest. Or, you know, Lewerke could throw for 5 TDs in the first half again and bury us. College football!
Florida at Kentucky UNDER 48 (Saturday, 7:00 p.m. ET)
Gotta say I liked this more at 50 where I got it earlier in the week, but we’ll roll with it here too. Kentucky’s without starting quarterback Terry Wilson for the year and Florida’s offense is just not consistent. I think the defenses will be the stars here and we just don’t want quick touchdowns going the other way off turnovers.
Georgia State (+8.5) at Western Michigan (Saturday, 7:00 p.m. ET)
My Panthers avoided the letdown loss to Furman last week, and they’re not as good of a team as they looked against Tennessee, but after what Michigan State did to the Broncos, I think Dan Ellington and company can get up and down the field for some scores in this one to keep it close. I’ll take the candy and the alma mater here.
Clemson at Syracuse (+28) (Saturday, 7:30 p.m. ET)
There was never a doubt I’d have this. The Orange couldn’t have looked worse against Maryland and they probably aren’t the ACC contender we thought they were, but this is their first home game and Dino’s going to be telling them how no one believes in them despite the fact they’ve battled Clemson hard in recent years. Clemson is terrifying, but they were very methodical against Texas A&M. Dabo wants wins, however he can get them, and I think Cuse can keep this inside four touchdowns with emotions high in the Don’t Call It The Carrier Dome.
Oklahoma (-23.5) at UCLA (Saturday, 8:00 p.m. ET)
In front of dozens in the Rose Bowl, Jalen Hurts’ Heisman campaign will roll on. Lincoln Riley played the gentleman’s game against Holgo in the opener, on that “we were in each other’s wedding” tip. That gesture probably won’t be extended to Chip Kelly, and the Sooners defense gets a chance to look real good here as well. Boomer, by four or five TDs.
Texas at Rice (+32) (Saturday, 8:00 p.m. ET)
Would’ve preferred Texas to have won last week to take this, but Rice has been not abjectly terrible in their 0-2 start. Texas may be a little mad and that worries me, but, come on Rice, keep it inside 30.
