Hello, friends. Despite two of my more lopsided beats of the year from LSU and Louisville (I’m sorry, we had to and I felt terrible about it), we still managed to come out ahead in Week 10 and move into profitability on the season, which seemed like a near impossibility a few weeks back.
Now, it’s my job to keep this train on the tracks, so we’re rocking with many of the teams that got us here and, as always, leaning on the principles. First, let’s take a look back at last week and where we stand for the season.
Last Week: 11-6
Full Season: 84-73-2
That’s what we like, so let’s try to get to some more winners this week, starting with a Friday night play. As always, lines come from Westgate but shop for the best number if you can.
Fresno State (-2.5) at Boise State (Friday, 10:15 p.m. ET)
It’s been a long time since Boise was a home dog and that scares some, but I’ve watched an awful lot of Fresno State football this season and I’m a huge believer in what this team can do, particularly on defense. They won’t dominate like they have against other Mountain West teams, but I do think they’re considerably better and should win this game by a touchdown (also, as always, the Fresno/UAB/Utah State parlay/tease will be in play).
Ohio State (-3.5) at Michigan State (Saturday, 12:00 p.m. ET)
The Buckeyes won but didn’t cover against Nebraska last week, but while Sparty has a better record than the Huskers, I think they’re a better matchup for Ohio State. Michigan State’s offense is rather dismal, particularly through the air, and they don’t have the playmakers to run on the edge like Purdue did. When you run at Ohio State between the tackles — like Penn State tried to — that’s when the defense looks pretty stout. I think the Buckeyes win this by a considerable margin as they ramp up for Michigan.
Kansas at Kansas State UNDER 47 (Saturday, 12:00 p.m. ET)
I’d have liked this Under no matter what the weather was, but just for good measure, it’s going to be blowing 17 mph with a high of 41 in Manhattan on Saturday. These offenses can be brutal to watch and Kansas just fired its coach,` but he’s still coaching for some reason, so all of that is a recipe for me to take the Under.
Vanderbilt (+16) at Missouri (Saturday, 12:00 p.m. ET)
Vandy’s just not a fun team to play and Mizzou’s coming off a big win against Florida last week. I feel like this is a little letdown spot for Drew Lock and company, who get a win, but not a pretty one in a sleepy 11 a.m. local kick against the ‘Dores.
TCU (+360) at West Virginia (Saturday, 12:00 p.m. ET)
Yes, I’m giving out a money line play of a double-digit favorite. They might get smacked here, but I wouldn’t be shocked if this is the spot where TCU pulls off a stunner. West Virginia’s riding high off the Texas win and might be looking ahead to facing Oklahoma State and Oklahoma the next two weeks. Gary Patterson is 11-2 ATS as a double-digit dog and has six outright wins in this spot. Horned Frogs, on the damn field.
Liberty at Virginia UNDER 60.5 (Saturday, 3:00 p.m. ET)
Virginia Unders are a principle still even though we’ve been burned a couple times by some tough late beats. I don’t see Liberty scoring much here and think Virginia dominates in a 38-7 type contest.
Middle Tennessee State (-13.5) at UTEP (Saturday, 3:00 p.m. ET)
UTEP got it done on the field last week against Rice to give me (and hopefully you) a winner. I think the fun stops there for the Miners and I’ll take the Blue Raiders to thump them in El Paso on Saturday, laying fewer than 14.
Oklahoma State (+21) at Oklahoma and UNDER 80.5 (Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET)
I don’t expect most of you to roll with me on the Under and I understand why. This could get to 80.5 in a hurry, but it’s supposed to be fairly chilly and breezy in Norman and regular readers know totals in the 80s are Unders on principle. Funny enough, I’ll take the Pokes to cover the three touchdowns because I think they’ll have enough success against the Sooners defense to keep this close, which may contradict the Under play to an extent but it all works in my brain.
Northwestern (+10) at Iowa (Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET)
Northwestern just hangs around, man. They weren’t really good against Notre Dame but still kept that game to 10 points, and while Iowa should win this, I think the ‘Cats make it annoying and keep it within one touchdown.
Utah State (-31) vs. San Jose State (Saturday, 4:00 p.m. ET)
The Aggies are averaging 50.1 points per game on the season and San Jose State gives up 36.1 per game to teams not nearly as good as Utah State. This gets out of hand early and stays that way, Aggies by five touchdowns.
Southern Miss at UAB UNDER 47 (Saturday, 7:30 p.m. ET)
The Blazers are the best scoring defense in the country allowing 12.1 points per game. They’re nasty, I’ve got ’em in the parlay, and I’ll roll with the Under here, as Southern Miss looked pretty good against Marshall (took us to Covertown) but is 95th in the nation in scoring.
Boston College (+19.5) vs. Clemson (Saturday, 8:00 p.m. ET)
Clemson just destroyed Louisville, rolling up 77 on them. Our +39 never stood a chance. I don’t care! I’m going up against them again and I’m ready to get hurt. The Dudes are good and this is the type of game where Dabo is just looking to get out with a win and not let turnovers kill him. Eagles keep it to two touchdowns and a field goal.
Oregon State (+24) at Stanford (Saturday, 9:00 p.m. ET)
I don’t have much in the night slate, but I’ll ride with the Beavers here. Stanford’s not good and, while Oregon State isn’t either, I think the Beavs hang around a bit in Palo Alto on Saturday night. Just enough to keep it inside this big number.
SUPER TILT PLAY OF THE WEEK
Cal (+5) at USC (Saturday, 10:30 p.m. ET)
I don’t know. The late slate is miserable this week and I’ve gotta put my 4-0 record on the line somewhere, so let’s go to Los Angeles and take the candy with the Bears. USC got back on track, sorta, with a win over Oregon State and I think that’s got this line a bit inflated. Go Bears.
