College Football Week 11 Picks: Bedlam Brings Opportunity

11.09.18 1 week ago

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Hello, friends. Despite two of my more lopsided beats of the year from LSU and Louisville (I’m sorry, we had to and I felt terrible about it), we still managed to come out ahead in Week 10 and move into profitability on the season, which seemed like a near impossibility a few weeks back.

Now, it’s my job to keep this train on the tracks, so we’re rocking with many of the teams that got us here and, as always, leaning on the principles. First, let’s take a look back at last week and where we stand for the season.

Last Week: 11-6
Full Season: 84-73-2

That’s what we like, so let’s try to get to some more winners this week, starting with a Friday night play. As always, lines come from Westgate but shop for the best number if you can.

Fresno State (-2.5) at Boise State (Friday, 10:15 p.m. ET)

It’s been a long time since Boise was a home dog and that scares some, but I’ve watched an awful lot of Fresno State football this season and I’m a huge believer in what this team can do, particularly on defense. They won’t dominate like they have against other Mountain West teams, but I do think they’re considerably better and should win this game by a touchdown (also, as always, the Fresno/UAB/Utah State parlay/tease will be in play).

Ohio State (-3.5) at Michigan State (Saturday, 12:00 p.m. ET)

The Buckeyes won but didn’t cover against Nebraska last week, but while Sparty has a better record than the Huskers, I think they’re a better matchup for Ohio State. Michigan State’s offense is rather dismal, particularly through the air, and they don’t have the playmakers to run on the edge like Purdue did. When you run at Ohio State between the tackles — like Penn State tried to — that’s when the defense looks pretty stout. I think the Buckeyes win this by a considerable margin as they ramp up for Michigan.

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