Week 10 gave us what we crave and desire each Saturday: boatloads of winners. We got hot and stayed hot (and nearly snuck in a wild backdoor in the wee hours of the morning) and that has the spirits pretty high going into a massive weekend in college football. Before we get there, let’s look back at last week’s record and where we stand for the season.
Last Week: 7-3
Season Total: 43-39-1
That’s the good stuff. This week, there will be no shortage of great games to watch, and beyond those big matchups with playoff implications, there are plenty of juicy lines and totals out there to be had. That’s why I’m coming to you this week with a record THIRTEEN plays, because why not get a little reckless and a little aggressive on this lovely November Saturday. Here we go.
Tulane (-5.5) at ECU
Tulane has struggled mightily over the past few weeks, but it’s time to hop back on the Wave because the best medicine for a running team that’s struggling is the 125th ranked ECU rush defense. After rewarding a gut feeling with their outright win over BYU (and the Under), ECU went back to giving up 60 points in a blowout loss last week so it’s time to fade the Pirates again. This line is way too low and Tulane could very easily rush for 400 yards in this one. Roll damn Wave.
Wake Forest at Syracuse UNDER 66.5
The public tends to think Dino Babers’ Orange are an Over team, but the trends say otherwise. Syracuse has been an Under team this year (8-1) and Wake Forest just played in a high-scoring affair in South Bend, which makes me think it’s time to get back to the basics for the Deacs with defense and running the ball. I’m trusting the Cuse trend to continue and the Deacs to get back to a grind it out style as this line’s climbed far too high for my taste.
Rutgers (+31) at Penn State
I get why this line is what it is, as Penn State’s gonna be mad after back-to-back losses and looking to make someone pay. However, Rutgers is a solid football team this year and teams catching 30 or more points against the spread are covering more than 70 percent of the time this season. This isn’t last year’s Rutgers team that just gets destroyed (they’re 7-2 ATS), and while I think Saquon Barkley and the Nittany Lions win comfortably, I think this stays inside four touchdowns.
Michigan State (+17) at Ohio State and UNDER 54
Sparty, away from home, hasn’t been especially good. At home, they’ve been unbeatable. Unfortunately for them, this game’s in Columbus against an Ohio State team angry after getting blasted by Iowa. There are a lot of reasons to think J.T. Barrett and company will run it up on Michigan State and make this a statement game. My feeling, however, is that they really won’t be able to. I don’t think the Buckeyes will just be able to impose their will on Michigan State, and I expect Sparty to take the air out of the ball and do their best to limit possessions in the game. If they can succeed in that, I love this coordinated parlay. I think it’s the only way Michigan State gets to cover town, so we’ll juice our odds and give it a go.
Purdue at Northwestern UNDER 48.5
Purdue has gone over 48 points once in the last seven weeks and it’s going to be well below freezing at kickoff in a night game in the Chicago area on Saturday. I think this game could be in the teens for both teams, so let’s all ride this Under train.
Iowa at Wisconsin UNDER 46
I know Iowa just scored 55 and Wisconsin scored 45 last week. I don’t care. My brand requires me to take the Under in this game. Since 2013 (when they became divisional foes), the totals in this game has been 26, 16, 50 (!), and 37. I love this game with all my heart, because it’s just beefy, corn-fed boys playing power football and punting. Don’t change that this year, please.
Notre Dame at Miami (FL) UNDER 57.5
There are competing trends at play here, but both of these defenses are very solid and Miami’s gone Under in seven of their eight games this season. The Canes desperately try to avoid making mistakes and will try to slow this game down, because a track meet favors Brandon Wimbush, Josh Adams, and the Irish. I think this game is close throughout, and if that happens, it’s because Miami’s keeping this thing low scoring.
Georgia at Auburn UNDER 49
These are two teams built on running the football and defense. Like with Miami, I think both of these teams will be very safe, especially early, in trying to avoid big mistakes. My actual favorite play here is the first half Under, so if you can find that, I’d suggest hammering it. Still, I’m a fan of the full game total, especially now that it’s crept up to 49. Georgia’s been blasting bad teams, but Auburn’s defense is the real deal. I think this looks an awful lot like Georgia-Notre Dame and Auburn-Clemson, two games that stayed well below this total.
Southern Miss (-10) at Rice
We fade Rice. I don’t really have anything else to tell you. Rice has been within 10 points one time in their last seven games. Let’s ride with the Golden Eagles.
UAB (+8) at UTSA
This line is awful. UAB is a reasonably solid football team, while UTSA is an average C-USA squad and somehow the Blazers are catching over a touchdown? As always, I’ll happily take the best line available, which is +8 at Stations books, but +7.5 elsewhere is also something I’d get after. I wouldn’t hate a money line play on UAB here either, but give me the Blazers and the candy and let’s stack this money.
Arizona State (+3) at UCLA
The Bruins are a bad football team. Arizona State doesn’t have a bad loss this season. Josh Rosen is back, but that will only save this from being an embarrassing rout like last week and simply result in UCLA possibly being competitive. In short: Fade. Jim. Mora. Jr.
Georgia State at Texas State UNDER 47
The Panthers have been an Under team for three years, including a 6-2 record this season. The Bobcats don’t exactly light the world on fire on offense, so I’ll happily ride the Under here in some Fun Belt action.
Alabama at Mississippi State UNDER 51
Alabama is officially in “let’s get to the Iron Bowl” mode. They have four linebackers out for the season, which means it’s time to slow the game down with long, painful drives on offense in order to keep that front seven fresh. Mississippi State’s defense has turned it around since the Auburn game a bit, albeit against some weak competition, but I think they’ll at least limit big plays from the Tide (who might limit big plays all on their own with play-calling). This game will be like pulling teeth for the the Starkville faithful, I fear, but it will stay Under.
