Odds are you’ve read, like, 20 different things saying we need an eight-team Playoff this week. This is because they are all the correct take, and eight teams (the five conference champions, two wild cards, and the highest-ranked Group of Five team) make more sense than four teams.
But let’s hypothetically say the committee doesn’t want to expand all the way to eight because …well, put whatever reason you want here. The Playoff could really use an expansion, but if eight is too many teams, why doesn’t the committee consider six?
Let’s say this format lets all five major conference champions get in, along with one at-large team. Isn’t this exactly what the committee wants? It does not devalue conference championships (which seems like the committee views as important because, you know, it’s on its website), but it lets them take one team that’s in an Ohio State situation this year (probably a better resume than its conference champion, but will not win said conference title).
The flaw in this system is that there’s only one at-large team, which is good this year if you hate Michigan fans but is still a pretty unfair system. It’s why an eight-team field would be the ideal, but let’s look at what a six-team field would look like assuming teams 1-5 are the conference champions and team six is the at-large squad. We’ll also assume that Clemson and Washington win their games this weekend:
- Alabama (SEC)
- Clemson (ACC)
- Washington (Pac-12)
- Penn State/Wisconsin (Big Ten)
- Oklahoma/Oklahoma State (Big XII)
- Ohio State (at-large)
As for the matchups, Alabama and Clemson would get byes into the semifinals, while Washington plays Ohio State and the Big Ten champ plays the Big 12 champ. Then, the Playoff could re-seed and give us Alabama vs. the worst-remaining team and Clemson vs. the best-remaining team. Or it could give us something like Alabama vs. Big Ten/Big 12 champ and Clemson vs. Washington/Ohio State. Either of these would be great.
This system would reward teams for winning their conferences, reward the best teams (well, the best champions) with an extra week to rest and prepare, and reward the best team that did not win its conference. While my preference is still eight teams – a Playoff this year that would include Oklahoma or Oklahoma State and not Michigan is ludicrous – six teams could work out.
Speaking of this year’s Playoff, wanna talk about the games that could decide who makes it to the New Year’s Six? Let’s go. All games are on Saturday unless otherwise noted.
Group of Five
MAC: Western Michigan vs. Ohio, 7 p.m., ESPN2 (FRIDAY)
AAC: Temple at Navy, Noon, ABC
So we’re on the verge of a really interesting scenario with the Group of Five rep in the New Year’s Six (the best of these teams will head to the Cotton Bowl). If Western Michigan beats Ohio – which considering the fact that these teams are separated by 62 spots in S&P+ is a likely possibility – it will end the regular season undefeated. The only other undefeated team in FBS will be Alabama. By all accounts, the Broncos should probably be the Group of Five team that makes it.
But in this week’s ranking, the committee put Western Michigan at 17 and Navy at 19. If both teams win this weekend, there is a chance that we have to wait an additional week to find out who is going to Arlington. While the Broncos’ game seems like it could be a bit one-sided, the Midshipmen’s matchup with the Owls is going to be all kinds of awesome. Sure, Navy is the ranked team, but S&P+ has a very underrated Temple squad winning by about seven points. No matter what, this game will be fun. Set some time aside to watch because this is a dark horse contender for game of the day.
Pac-12
Colorado vs. Washington, 9 p.m., FOX (FRIDAY)
This is the game that everyone has circled as the game of the weekend. It’s a matchup of a team that has flew under the radar all season in Washington against maybe the best story in all of college football in Colorado. Washington is in the Playoff with a win, while Colorado would probably need a little help. Still, seeing the Buffs take on Alabama isn’t the craziest thought in the world.
The matchup to watch is Washington’s skill players against Colorado’s sound and stout defense. Myles Gaskin, the Huskies’ running back, has been a stud since basically the day he stepped onto campus, while few (if any) teams boast a 1-2 punch at receiver quite like John Ross and Dante Pettis. For Colorado to win this game, it will likely need to limit all of these dudes, along with Huskies QB Jake Browning. Watch as the Buffaloes back seven tries to raise hell – its linebackers and defensive backs are ninth and first, respectively, in their position’s havoc rates, a metric which divides tackles for loss, passes defended, and forced fumbles by total plays.
On the other side of the ball, Colorado is led by QB Sefo Liufau, who is fantastic. He has essentially rewritten the school’s record book, and when he’s on his game, he’s the type of hard working, blue collar quarterback that fans fall in love with all the time. Washington’s defense is nasty – it is sixth in defensive rushing S&P+, 12th in defensive S&P+, and 15th in defensive passing S&P+ – so Liufau will have his hands full. But seeing as how he took it to Michigan in Ann Arbor earlier this year, I have faith he can make some fun stuff happen.
There’s not much else going on on Friday night, so definitely check this one out. Either we’re seeing a team lock up a Playoff spot, or we’re seeing the team with the most improbable 2016 season continue its charge against football conventional wisdom. It’s gonna rock.
Big XII
Oklahoma State at Oklahoma, 12:30 p.m., FOX
Neither of these teams are going to make the Playoff barring something absolutely insane happening – the winner will likely hop the Big Ten runner up and the loser of the Pac-12 title game, but other than that, flying up to No. 4 seems impossible.
Still, you’re going to want to watch this. Bedlam is usually a great time, it’s always intense, and with the Big 12 title on the line, you know these teams are going to try and throw haymakers for four quarters. Both of these offenses are really good (by S&P+, the Sooners are No. 1 and the Cowboys are No. 11), while both defenses leave a lot to be desired (Oklahoma is 62nd in defensive S&P+, Oklahoma State is 66th).
At the very least, turn this on and watch Dede Westbrook, who is among the best wideouts in America and could be the most explosive receiver in the game. The Cowboys, meanwhile, have a deep receiving corps, as four players have more than 450 receiving yards on the year. Plus Baker Mayfield vs. Mason Rudolph is one heck of a QB matchup. There will be lots of points, and you should watch this.
SEC
Alabama vs. Florida, 4 p.m., CBS
Alabama is almost definitely going to win this game. Even if it loses, it is going to make the Playoff. You should spend the time you would spend watching this raking leaves or something. I would write more, but come on, Alabama is historically great this year.
ACC
Clemson vs. Virginia Tech, 8 p.m., ABC
Clemson has been a little underwhelming this year compared to what we all expected – they’re this year’s version of 2014 Florida State or 2015 Ohio State – but when the Tigers are on, they’re awesome. Deshaun Watson is still one of the best quarterbacks in the country, while the team’s defense is nasty behind its excellent line and a group of standout linebackers.
The Tigers are sometimes susceptible to getting into shootouts against good teams, though, and Virginia Tech can score some points if it gets into a rhythm. Jerod Evans is one of the nation’s top dual-threat quarterbacks, and his options in the receiving game (receivers Isaiah Ford and Cam Phillips, and tight end Bucky Hodges) are really good. The Hokies are 94th nationally in offensive rushing S&P+, and Evans is the team’s leading rusher, so there will be a lot of pressure on the team’s signal caller to get the ground game going.
The matchup to watch is Watson against the Hokies’ passing game. It’s usually worth watching Watson, but Virginia Tech is sixth nationally in defensive passing S&P+. Look for Brandon Facyson, Adonis Alexander, and company to try and make life hard on Clemson’s long list of talented pass catchers.
If Clemson wins, it is in the Playoff. Easy enough, right? If Virginia Tech wins, though, we may be in for some chaos. It’s hard to see the Hokies jumping from No. 23 to Top 4, so a win by them would likely open the door for a team like Michigan or the Big Ten champion. If it’s close late, definitely watch for the chaos potential in this one.
Big Ten
Penn State vs. Wisconsin, 8 p.m., FOX
These two teams are both interesting. You’ve heard it a million times the last few weeks, but there is a really good chance that the team that wins this game will be left out of the Playoff. Meanwhile, it looks like Ohio State – which didn’t win its division by way of its loss to Penn State – will make the postseason.
Is that fair? Probably not, especially based on how much the committee has valued conference titles the last few years. But hey, gotta play the hand you’re dealt, and both the Badgers and the Nittany Lions have been dealt an interesting hand.
Wisconsin is the same team it has been for years – physical, smash mouth football that looks to run the ball and grind out games on defense. This year, the team has a solid quarterback in true freshman Alex Hornibrook, who was banged up last week but seems like will play. If he doesn’t, his backup is Bart Houston, who is a senior and has been perfectly solid in 2016 despite losing the job to the freshman.
Penn State’s defense is pretty par for the course, but the offense has been explosive this year behind the QB/RB duo of Trace McSorley and Saquon Barkley. While Barkley was also banged up last year, it seems like he too will play. McSorley has been really good this year, as he’s shown an ability to run the ball and get the ball downfield to a talented group of Nittany Lion receivers.
If Penn State can make some big plays against Wisconsin’s stout defense, it will win. If the Badgers smother the Nittany Lions, they will win. It’s a bit oversimplified, but this game will come down to which team can force the other team to play their style. It’ll be a blast.
