Week 2 of the college football season brought big games and big winners, rolling to a 6-3 record in the column to bring the overall record to 8-7 for the season. It was a nice bounce back after a rough first weekend, and hopefully we’ve begun to identify some trends to follow for the season.
The Week 3 slate of games is by far the weakest of the early season, with Clemson at Louisville being the only real marquee game on the schedule. Texas at USC is the other “big game,” but after what we’ve seen from the Horns and Trojans this season, it’s hard to see that one being all that competitive.
A lack of big games isn’t always a bad thing for bettors, though. The best values are often found on games elsewhere on the board, and in a week devoid of much intrigue, it’s time to dig deep and find those winners. This week, you’ll see some familiar picks on the sheet as I’m riding with some developing trends to see if we can’t squeeze out a few more winners before the oddsmakers catch up (if they do).
To start, we are going to go back to the well that is fading Missouri football a week after winning outright with South Carolina and just days after Mizzou fired their football coach. As always, lines come courtesy of VegasInsider and picks are in bold.
Purdue (+7.5) at Missouri
I’m not sure what I’m missing here. So far this season Jeff Brohm’s new-look Boilermakers have hung with Lamar Jackson and Louisville and thumped Ohio (covering in both). Missouri, on the other hand, got rocked at home as a 2.5-point favorite last week by South Carolina and struggled for the better part of a half with simply keeping Missouri State (an FCS opponent) out of the end zone. In comes a Purdue team that pushes tempo and can put up points in bunches to take on a defense that lost its coordinator and has been flat out bad for two years. I’m not going to turn down this candy and this is my lock of the week.
Kansas State at Vanderbilt (+4)
You know how I roll with the ‘Dores and home dogs almost blindly, so it should come as no surprise that I’m jumping on Vandy getting points in Nashville. Kansas State has destroyed its first two opponents, but those opponents are an FCS squad and Charlotte, likely the worst team in FBS. So, forgive me for being a bit wary of the ‘Cats laying more than a field goal on the road against a very game Vanderbilt team that suddenly finds itself in possession of an offense that can actually move the ball.
Notre Dame at Boston College UNDER 51.5
I’m going to live dangerously once again. In Week 1, we stayed under in BC-NIU on a missed sub-40 yard field goal. In Week 2, Wake Forest and BC scored a total of three points in the final 19 minutes to preserve the Under by two points (including BC running the clock out as the losing team with three timeouts). A sane person would realize this can’t keep happening, but I’m ready to ride this thing into the ground. Notre Dame’s defense is really, really excellent. I don’t think Anthony Brown and the Eagles will have much fun trying to move it on the Irish this week. As for Notre Dame’s offense, we’re just hoping not to see a massive explosion of points against a still solid, but not great BC defense. Brandon Wimbush got rocked against Georgia and I’d expect BC to dial up the pressure this week. That could yield big plays, which are bad for the Under, but I’m banking on the Eagles looking bad on offense again and that keeping this just underneath a key number at 51.
Kentucky at South Carolina (-6.5)
It’s time to buy in on the Gamecocks. So far this season Kentucky has struggled with Southern Miss and Eastern Kentucky, while South Carolina has beaten NC State and Missouri. Last week impressed me with the way South Carolina’s defense handled Drew Lock and company and this is the best I’ve ever seen a Will Muschamp team’s offense look. Jake Bentley is a baller at quarterback and Deebo Samuel is a legitimate top playmaker in the SEC. I don’t think Kentucky’s got the horses to run with South Carolina for four quarters and the Gamecocks pull away with a comfortable win here and cover the 6.5 (I liked this better at 5.5, but I’m rolling with it).
Wisconsin at BYU UNDER 41
This is such a low number but a BYU point total honestly can’t be low enough right now. This offense is horrendously bad. Through three games, including a game against an FCS opponent (albeit a good one in Portland State), they have 33 points. The highest scoring game they’ve been involved in has had 32 points. Wisconsin’s defense looks like they’ve got a little bit of that nasty in them this year and the poor Cougars might look as inept as when they faced LSU and rushed for negative yardage. Wisconsin might win this thing 31-7, but that still stays under the total.
Bowling Green at Northwestern UNDER 57
Northwestern just got rocked by Duke, so I get this number being where it is, but Bowling Green is an especially bad football team and 57 points is just too damn many. Clayton Thorson turned back into a pumpkin against Duke and while he’ll look better against the Falcons, it’s not exactly a smooth ride for the Wildcats offense right now. I think Northwestern wins pretty comfortably and Bowling Green looks bad again after losing to an FCS team a week ago to keep this game under in the low 50s at most.
Virginia Tech (-22.5) at East Carolina
The results speak for themselves in fading East Carolina this season. This has risen to 23 at a lot of books, but bless the MGM for keeping it at 22.5 because I like getting random hooks I wasn’t expecting to. I have very few thoughts on this Hokie team beyond watching them win an entertaining game against West Virginia, a team that just destroyed the Pirates. Like last week, our fear is the backdoor from ECU against the scrubs, but I still feel very good in this spot.
