Hello, friends. I don’t really know what to tell you, we just can’t shake the bad beats (and admittedly some outright bad picks) right now, but we press on in Week 6 after another week just slipping a little further below .500.
If you’re here to fade me, you’ll probably enjoy this week’s picks. They aren’t the prettiest group and it’ll take an awful lot of intestinal fortitude to follow me into battle with, no joke, six Under picks for totals in the 40s. We’re here for sweats. We will undoubtedly miss at least one of these horribly, because that’s the way the season’s gone, and we will have an awful beat in here, but we want winners and low totals scare the public and I like being opposite the public.
We’re also opposite Alabama this week, because my principles continue to not allow me to let a conference road team lay five touchdowns. Again, it will be painful this week, but I believe we can begin the climb. Let’s take stock of this miserable campaign to this point, before we try to turn the page.
Last Week: 6-7
Full Season: 30-38
Arkansas (+35) vs. Alabama (Saturday, 12:00 p.m. ET)
The Hogs looked borderline competent last week against Texas A&M and maybe, just maybe, they can do so again on Saturday at home. I don’t think this game will be anywhere close but I simply can not abide by a 35-point spread in SEC play with the underdog at home. I got extremely lucky with ULL at Alabama last week in an amazing backdoor, so I might be flying too close to the sun here, but I’m riding with the Hogs. Woo Pig.
Tulane at Cincinnati UNDER 48.5 (Saturday, 12:00 p.m. ET)
The Cincinnati defense is pretty good, neither of these offenses is tremendously potent (Cincy’s stats look good thanks to a game against Ohio and last week’s UConn game). Tulane just beat the brakes off Memphis, but they’ve been rough outside of New Orleans and I think this is just a ball-control, low-scoring affair.
Texas (+7) vs. Oklahoma (Saturday, 12:00 p.m. ET)
Tom Herman as an underdog is one of the few ironclad principles in college football betting. He’s like 9-1 now after adding another cover earlier this year for us and I’m not jumping ship now. Oklahoma’s defense is gettable, and Texas’ defense has been feisty of late and will give Kyler Murray and company a legit test.
Illinois at Rutgers UNDER 49.5 (Saturday, 12:00 p.m. ET)
I told you that you were going to hate this week’s picks. But Illinois has held the Under in three out of four games despite being a bit rough defensively. Rutgers, similar, at 3-2 on Unders this season. I almost gave out Rutgers plus the points but I’m not sure even I hate myself that much (to put it in print, anyways). Under, though. Because we have to.
Buffalo at Central Michigan UNDER 52.5 (Saturday, 12:00 p.m. ET)
It’s supposed to be windy in this game. Buffalo just got rocked by Army, but Central Michigan is the second worst scoring offense in all the land. The Chips just don’t put points up. That’s what I’m banking on here, and hopefully Buffalo’s offense continues to look raggedy after last week. They’re going to score, just hopefully not quickly.
Northwestern at Michigan State UNDER 43.5 (Saturday, 12:00 p.m. ET)
It’s going to be windy here as well. It’s a game between two teams that aren’t good at offense. It’s two teams that, in recent history, have prided themselves on defense. There’s reverse line movement here with 75 percent of the money on the Wildcats but the Spartans have climbed a point or so since open, so I’m a bit spooked off Cats +10 here. This Under is what my brand is built off of. We’ll be yelling TIIIIICCCKKKKK TICKTICKTICK in the first quarter and sweating all game.
Iowa at Minnesota UNDER 43 (Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET)
If you thought we couldn’t get any more on brand than a N’Western-Sparty Under then you were wrong. May I present you Iowa-Minnesota, the rock fight to stay in the mix in the Big Ten West and a game built for my pleasure. We will run the football. We will punt the ball from the opposing 37. We will not yield to the temptation of yards and points if it brings risk of losing the field position battle. Wind the goddamn clock right now and let’s go.
Florida (+2.5) vs. LSU and UNDER 44.5 (Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET)
I think LSU might be just a bit fraudulent right now. I’m not saying they aren’t good, but their wins over Miami and Auburn don’t look quite as good as they did initially and I feel they’re just a bit overvalued. I’m here to take a home dog in the Gators and also the Under in a game between two strong defenses. LSU loves to take the air out of the ball and I appreciate that. Florida, as long it’s close, won’t want to give LSU any momentum with turnovers, so I think we’ve got a good old fashioned field position battle on our hands in The Swamp. Dan Mullen as a home underdog is not quite the quality lock of Tom Herman as a dog, but it’s not far off. I’ll take the Gators.
Navy at Air Force UNDER 48.5 (Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET)
When service academies get together, you take the Under. That’s just principle. No further explanation needed.
Louisiana-Lafayette at Texas State UNDER 59.5 (Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET)
Again, you hate these picks so much and I’m fine with that. Fade me, pass on stuff, I don’t care. These are two of the 30 worst offensive teams in the country. This total is at least 3.5 points too high. Under.
Mississippi State (+3.5) vs. Auburn and UNDER 44 (Saturday, 7:30 p.m. ET)
It’s going to be rockin’ in Starkville under the lights for this game. Both of these teams have been playing in absolute rock fights lately and I love them so much for it. Auburn’s offense isn’t good. Mississippi State’s is stunningly similarly mediocre. Both defenses are nasty. Under and the home dog here to the window.
Cal (-2.5) at Arizona (Saturday, 10:00 p.m. ET)
Arizona’s bad, man. I know Cal just took it on the chin from Oregon, but I just think the Wildcats are one of the three worst teams in the Pac-12 and Cal’s a middle of the pack team. That means the Bears should win this by a field goal or more on the road. It feels weird having faith in Cal, but here we are.
