Professional football is the most popular gambling sport in the United States by a hefty margin and the 2017 NFL season is (finally) here. Yes, there are other things to whet the handicapping appetite throughout the sporting calendar and there was even a monster boxing match less than two weeks ago that received a ton of attention. Still, there is nothing quite like a full slate of NFL games and that is what we are blessed with in early September.
In this space each week, we are tasked with selecting five games to target with the special twist of dealing in point totals. These (usually) aren’t quite as sexy as essentially predicting the outcomes of games by wagering on the “side” or “money line” but over/under bets can be both satisfying, fun to sweat and highly lucrative if executed correctly.
As a motto, we will be leaning “under” with the vast majority of plays. Generally, the public absolutely loves to root for high-scoring, exciting action and that can lead to inflated prices when Las Vegas (or your favorite off-shore establishment) seeks to receive measured action on both sides. That brings us to the overall goal of fading the public (i.e. average bettor) and the reasoning behind that is, well, most people that bet on football lose and siding with the house is the smartest way to live.
With all of the background out of the way, let’s roll through this week’s slate, beginning with the highly anticipated Thursday night opener in Foxboro.
Patriots and Chiefs UNDER 48.5 points
Most people in the universe believe Tom Brady and company will hold serve in Foxboro in the opener. However, there are still ways to attack the first game of the NFL season and, for me, it’s fading the public and rolling with the under. Nearly 65 percent of the action (via Sports Insights) is on the over, yet the total has dipped from the opening line of 50 down to its current perch.
Yes, the Patriots are going to score points but Kansas City’s defense is fully capable of turning a few would-be touchdowns into field goals. More than anything, though, this is a play on the grind-it-out style that the Chiefs almost certainly have to deploy to keep the game close and that means a lot of ball control and safety from Alex Smith. Kick things off right by rooting for punts and field goals.
Colts and Rams UNDER 42 points
This is a more public side than I like to give out but they can’t make this line low enough with Scott Tolzien at quarterback for the Colts. The absence of Andrew Luck is bad enough but Indy doesn’t have the type of running game that can sustain success without him and, even without Aaron Donald, Los Angeles has some talent on defense.
While the Rams could certainly emerge offensively behind a youngster in Jared Goff and some improved talent on the outside with Sammy Watkins, it seems aggressive to think they’ll come out of the gate scoring in the mid-twenties or higher. Dealing with a number this low is never fun from a sweat perspective but it would legitimately surprise me if the Colts scored more than 17 points.
Falcons and Bears UNDER 49.5 points
The Falcons had arguably the best offense in the league a season ago and they return everyone (sans Kyle Shanahan) from that tremendous group. As a result, Atlanta’s overs will likely be trendy bets early in the year and that seems to be the case here with a number north of 49.
Make no mistake, the Falcons are probably going to score with regularity in this game, simply because they are that good behind Matt Ryan, Devonta Freeman and Julio Jones. With that said, Chicago’s defense, when healthy, is underrated and this is actually more of a play on Atlanta’s improved defense against Mike Glennon. Are the Bears really going to come out and dial-a-score to keep up? I don’t think so, and something in the range of a 27-17 final score seems juicy to me.
Raiders and Titans UNDER 24.5 points in the first half
This is the game that everyone will circle as a scoring extravaganza and that makes sense. After all, both teams feature impressive young quarterbacks and talented skill-position players against defenses aren’t otherworldly.
Still, the overall game total has dipped despite action on the over, indicating sharps have at least examined that side of the coin. The full-game total does scare me a bit given the flourishes that could take place in the fourth quarter if the game is tight. The first half, though, brings some good value, especially given the way that Tennessee could be led by Mike Mularkey in the opener. It may not be a fun sweat but let’s get exotic with a first half total.
Giants and Cowboys UNDER 48 points
Ezekiel Elliott is in the lineup and the Cowboys have their full complement on the offensive side of the ball. That, combined with the over action that always arrives in prime-time games, makes this total a touch high for my liking.
From an analysis standpoint, I simply don’t believe in the Giants offense. Odell Beckham Jr. is terrifying for anyone holding an under ticket but Eli Manning isn’t a dynamic player at this stage of his career and the Giants aren’t explosive on the ground. Throw in a reputation for rock fights between these two teams in the recent past and this might be my favorite bet of the week. Fade the public action and ride on the under.
