Culminating with a Monday night class between the Rams and Chiefs, Week 11 of the NFL season provided quite a bit of entertainment. What the slate did not bring, though, was a successful week for us in picking winners, as disaster struck in a few places. There were sides that were just wrong (cough, Eagles, cough) and, as you may expect in a bad week, a few bad breaks along the way. Still, we are not deterred and, with Thanksgiving on the agenda, it is a big week of football for Week 12.
Before we get to the five winners this time around, let’s see where we are for the season.
- Week 11: 1-4
- 2018 Season: 29-23-3
Come get these winners.
Washington (+7.5) over Dallas
It would’ve been great to get this at the opener of 9 or 9.5 but we’ll gladly take the extra hook above a touchdown. Yes, Colt McCoy is playing quarterback in this spot but, if you take a close look, it’s possible he isn’t a massive downgrade from what Alex Smith has brought to the table this season. Beyond that, everyone is on the Cowboys at home on Thanksgiving and Washington’s defense is enough to keep this one close. I’d pick Dallas to win the game on the field but the number is an overreaction to the Smith injury.
Atlanta (+13) over New Orleans
Another game in which the opening line (14.5 or even 15 in some spots) would’ve been beautiful. Hopefully, you jumped on this game immediately to secure the extra candy but, even if you didn’t, 13 should be enough for the Falcons. Of course, we faded the Saints last week to disastrous returns but, in the epitome of an NFL rivalry game (these teams hate each other), Atlanta shouldn’t be catching 13 on a short week. The Saints are the better team but the value is just too much to pass up in the Thursday nightcap.
Philadelphia (-6) over New York Giants
The only winner we picked up last week was a favorite with the Colts and we’re going back to the well here. The action is split on this game but the money is on the Eagles and that makes sense. To this point, Philadelphia’s season has been disastrous and, frankly, it might just be over. There is the chance at a late gasp playoff run, though, and the Eagles are now undervalued after the calamity that occurred in New Orleans. I don’t love doing it but the Eagles are the side, even when laying points.
Carolina (-3) over Seattle
Weirdly, this almost feels like an underdog play. Two-thirds of the tickets are on a very trendy team in Seattle and you can get this line in a sweet spot with Carolina laying only three. That is absolutely the move in my view, as the Panthers are the better team on a neutral field and the Seahawks simply don’t scare me when away from the friendly confines of home. Fade the public and take… the favorite? Yep, the favorite.
Denver (+3.5) over Pittsburgh
The Steelers are riding a six-game winning streak and, well, the Broncos are not. That leads to a situation when the world is (justifiably) on Pittsburgh and we have to go the other way. Denver has been quite frisky in the recent past, especially on the defensive side of the ball, and that leads us to a bit of value catching more than a field goal at home. It may not be fun to sweat but, in the absence of a game that we love on Sunday or Monday night, we’ll close the week in the Mile High City.