We’re Picking Winners For Every Week 13 Game Of The NFL Season

It’s Week 13 of the NFL season with five games left and playoff teams are fighting for position while the other teams are trying to get into the playoff race. However, the biggest story of the week was the New York Giants decision to bench quarterback Eli Manning.

The 2-9 New York Giants are benching QB Eli Manning in favor of Geno Smith. It’s understandable that they would want to do a QB change when the team is that bad, but Geno freakin’ Smith? Really? I think that’s why a lot of Giants fans (as well as NFL veterans) are mad about it. If they were putting in some young guy with potential then that’s one thing, but putting in one of the worst QBs this decade is a bad sign. It also could be a call from upper management that wants them to lose the last five so they can get a top three draft pick and allow them to select their QB of the future. Tanking is definitely a thing in the NBA and it happens in the NFL too.

Look at this stat about how bad Smith has been since he joined the league.

The worst QB rating since 2013 and he’s started over 30 games, so it’s not like you can say he hasn’t been on the field a lot. He is proven to be bad.

I can understand why the Giants fans are mad, but it is necessary for them to blow things up and try to look towards the future without Eli Manning at quarterback. Could they have handled it better? Sure, but that’s the business of sports sometimes. The Giants have dealt with so many injuries this year especially on offense, so no matter who the QB was, the team was going to struggle. It’s also a case of their General Manager Jerry Reese and Head Coach Ben McAdoo not thinking carefully when making this news public. They could have handled it better. I doubt either man is back in that job next year either. Will Eli be on the Giants next year? My guess is no and that he’ll end up in Denver or perhaps Jacksonville where former coach Tom Coughlin is in the front office. Giants fans should love Eli since he was their QB for two Super Bowl wins, but they also need to realize it’s time to move on.

In other news, I thought the fight between Raiders WR Michael Crabtree and Broncos CB Aqib Talib was ridiculous. I know they don’t like each other, but you’re hurting your team by doing something like that. They were originally suspended for two games each, but that’s been reduced to one game each.

Fantasy football players know this is a crucial week. If you’re in a 12-team league then this is likely the last regular season week of your season with Weeks 14-16 serving as playoff time. Make sure you check out man Jason’s waiver wire pickups, as well as what RB/WRs you should start and also the QB/TEs worth playing too. I’ve had a good year and could be playoff bound in five of seven leagues, but there are always tough decisions every week. Hey, Chiefs RB Kareem Hunt and WR Tyreek Hill, please step up this week. We need you!

Last Week’s Results:

Things are going well with the picks. A lot of favorites keep doing well, so that’s made it a successful season so far.

12-4 Straight Up (113-63 Season, .642)
10-6 Point Spread (88-86-2 Season, .506)

Note: The point spreads I use come from VegasInsider. All times listed are in the Eastern Time zone.

Washington (5-6) @ Dallas (5-6) -0 [8:30pm THU]

This is different than a usual Thursday night game because both teams played last Thursday, so they have had a full week of rest. The Cowboys really miss RB Ezekiel Elliott because they’ve lost three straight without him and each of those losses were by 20+ points while they haven’t scored more than 10 points in that stretch. Perhaps they’ll fare better this week at home, but I think the Washington offense led by QB Kirk Cousins and the emergence of rookie RB Samaje Perine (100 rushing yards last week) can win on the road. Neither team is a playoff team, but if one of them wins five straight perhaps they have a shot.

The Pick: Washington 24-20
Minnesota (9-2) @ Atlanta (7-4) -3 [1:00pm SUN]

This should be an awesome game between a Falcons team that is rolling with three straight wins and they’re averaging 31.7 points in those games, which shows their offense is clicking finally. Plus, they get their top RB Devonta Freeman back from a concussion. That should help against the Vikings defense that I feel is the best in the NFC since they are second against the run and 11th against the pass. The Vikings have won seven straight and I think their win two weeks ago when they held the Rams to just seven points was their most impressive victory of the season.

The key to this game is whether the Falcons can get star WR Julio Jones the ball early and often against star Vikings CB Xavier Rhodes, who shuts most top wideouts down. Jones had 253 receiving yards and two TDs last week after a frustrating year where he got only one TD heading into last week. I think Rhodes and the rest of the defense will do enough to frustrate the Falcons. I also believe Vikings QB Case Keenum can have a good day against an average Falcons defense that gives up big plays all over. Don’t be surprised if Vikings WR Adam Thielen is the best receiver on the field after another monster game this week.

The Pick: Minnesota 27-23

New England (9-2) -8.5 @ Buffalo (6-5) [1:00pm SUN]

Huge game for the Bills, but that doesn’t mean I have any confidence picking them. The Bills are sitting at 6-5 in a battle for the sixth playoff spot, but two of their last five are against this Patriots team that has won seven straight games. Early in the year, the Pats weakness was their defense giving up too many points, but they corrected that problem (no surprise with Bill Belichick coaching the team) and now they look unbeatable again. For the Bills to win, they need a monster game from RB LeSean McCoy, but I think the Pats will try to take him out of it and try to force QB Tyrod Taylor to beat them. The Bills just don’t have the kind of passing game to put pressure on the Pats.

I am amazed by how good QB Tom Brady is at 40 years of age. Brady barely gets hit and continues to read defenses unlike anybody else in football. I’ll take the Bills to cover the spread, but I don’t see them winning this game.

The Pick: New England 24-17

San Francisco (1-10) @ Chicago (3-8) -3.5 [1:00pm SUN]

An awful game between two terrible teams. The only thing worth watching is to see how Niners QB Jimmy Garoppolo may do in his first start with the team. I think Jimmy G is an upgrade over CJ Beathard, but they just don’t have a lot of weapons. The Niners are 30th against the run and the Bears can’t do much other than run (8th in the league), so this could be a nice game for Bears RB Jordan Howard and company.

The Pick: Chicago 23-16

Tampa Bay (4-7) @ Green Bay (5-6) -0 [1:00pm SUN]

Here’s another game with two teams not going anywhere. I know some Packers fans think that if they can win the next two weeks and then QB Aaron Rodgers can return from injury to win the last three that they might get in the playoffs, but I doubt it. Too many good teams are ahead of them. It looks like Bucs QB Jameis Winston will start this game although that’s not confirmed as of this writing. I’ll take the Packers because the Bucs 1-5 road record doesn’t give me any confidence in them while Packers QB Brett Hundley is doing a bit better every week and on paper, they are still the better team.

The Pick: Green Bay 23-20

Houston (4-7) @ Tennessee (7-4) -7 [1:00pm SUN]

The Titans are probably the worst 7-4 team in the league. That’s because they win ugly a lot of the time and don’t really beat teams easily when they should. They have won five of six, but those last three wins were by four points or less. They play close games. With that said, they are 4-1 at home while the Texans are 1-4 on the road and I really have no faith in QB “Macho Man” Tom Savage beating a decent defense away from home. I hope this is the week the Titans unleash RB Derrick Henry by giving him a lot more carries than Demarco Murray. Last week Henry outgained Murray by 70 yards (79 to 9) and had one less carry. I understand wanting to keep them fresh, but at some point, you have to lean on the better back and that’s Henry.

The Pick: Tennessee 27-17

Denver (3-8) -1 @ Miami (4-7) [1:00pm SUN]

The Broncos have lost seven straight after a 3-1 start and the Dolphins have lost five straight after a 4-2 start. The real losers of this game are the fans in attendance. They should ask for a refund. I’ll go with Miami because they seem to have more weapons on offense, but they sure don’t know how to use them right.

The Pick: Miami 20-13

Kansas City (6-5) -3.5 @ NY Jets (4-7) [1:00pm SUN]

When the Chiefs started the year 5-0, some people believed that this was their year to finally break through in the AFC. Since then, they have lost five out of the last six (their lone win was against the lowly Broncos) including a 12-9 loss to the Giants two weeks ago. That Giants loss was in New Jersey where they will play the Jets this week. It’s been frustrating as a fantasy football degenerate because I’ve got Chiefs RB Kareem Hunt and WR Tyreek Hill on multiple teams. It’s reached the point where I might bench both even in a favorable matchup because of how bad they have played. Meanwhile, there are rumblings that Chiefs QB Alex Smith should be benched because of his struggles, but I don’t think it’s going to happen because coach Andy Reid is loyal to him and I doubt rookie QB Pat Mahomes is ready.

The Jets aren’t any good either with five losses in their last six, but QB Josh McCown is playing well and I enjoy watching WR Robby Anderson, who has had a breakout year for them. I’m going Jets with the home upset while the Chiefs fall to .500 after a 5-0 start. Who would have thought? That’s the NFL, my friends. You just never know.

The Pick: NY Jets 27-23

Detroit (6-5) @ Baltimore (6-5) -3 [1:00pm SUN]

Huge game for both teams battling for a playoff spot in different conferences. The key stat that jumps out at me is the Ravens are second against the pass at 189.9 yards per game and the Lions are 10th in passing offense. The Lions have trouble running the ball, but that might be what they need to do. I just think the Ravens defense will smother them and make it tough for them to get going. My issue with the Ravens is their 32nd ranked pass game with just 164.3 represents a team that has trouble moving the ball. The Ravens win ugly and while I have no faith in QB Joe Flacco this year, at least RB Alex Collins is pretty good and the defense should carry them at home.

The Pick: Baltimore 23-13

Indianapolis (3-8) @ Jacksonville (7-4) -9.5 [1:00pm SUN]

The Jags rank first on defense in terms of points against (15.3) and they only give up 168.7 pass yards per game, which is also first. They are vulnerable against the run, but that’s not a strength of the Colts at all. I think Jags RB Leonard Fournette will have a huge day and their defense will score one or two TDs too. I think they’ll win big here because star CB Jalen Ramsey will shut down WR TY Hilton and that will make it tough for the Colts to move the ball. There are QB issues with the Jags because of Blake Bortles’ inconsistency, but they are a legitimately good team because of that defense.

The Pick: Jacksonville 27-6

Cleveland (0-11) @ LA Chargers (5-6) -13.5 [4:05pm SUN]

I’m happy for the Chargers. When they started the year 0-4 I kept saying they were better than that, so it’s nice to see them back on the right track. QB Phil Rivers has a lot of weapons he can go to and WR Keenan Allen is making a case for the Comeback Player of the Year award too. As for the Browns, the only intriguing thing about them this week is what WR Josh Gordon may do now that he’s not suspended. I wish him the best and hope he can stay clean for the rest of his career. Bet on the Chargers. That spread isn’t high enough.

The Pick: LA Chargers 37-13

NY Giants (2-9) @ Oakland (5-6) -7 [4:25pm SUN]

“Geno Smith is starting! Yes!” That was my initial reaction to the Giants QB news because of how bad Geno has been in his career. I like betting against him. Plus, the Raiders need this win to stay in the playoff race since they are one game behind the Chiefs and tied with the Chargers in the AFC West. The Raiders will be without WR Michael Crabtree, who is suspended and WR Amari Cooper may miss the game with a concussion, so they could have issues moving the ball. They’re still a lot better than the Giants, though.

The Pick: Oakland 27-7

Carolina (8-3) @ New Orleans (8-3) -4 [4:25pm SUN]

Game of the week here. Tough to pick a winner. The Saints are 4-1 at home coming off a tough road loss against the Rams, which followed an eight-game win streak. The Panthers are a very good road team with a 5-1 record and they have won four straight. I’m intrigued to see if the Saints can rush the ball since they are third at rushing (142.1 YPG) while the Panthers are third against the run (83.2 YPG). The Saints offense struggles sometimes if they don’t get the run going, so it’s important for the Panthers to try to shut that down.

I’m leaning towards the Saints to win just because of how dominant they have been at home with QB Drew Brees running the show. They just feed off the crowd so much. Plus, their impressive rookie RB Alvin Kamara is a game changer that is such a weapon in the short passing game. I know Panthers rookie RB Christian McCaffrey is great in the passing game too and QB Cam Newton looks for him a lot, but I just think Kamara is more explosive right now. This game has shootout potential is also a possible playoff preview. It should be fun.

The Pick: New Orleans 36-31

LA Rams (8-4) -7 @ Arizona (5-6) [4:25pm SUN]

Their first game this year in Week 7 was a 33-0 win for the Rams where they knocked out Cardinals QB Carson Palmer. The Rams offense didn’t have a particularly huge day, but the defense showed they were legit and it was tough for the Cardinals to do anything. While I don’t expect a blowout to the same degree, this should be an easy win for my Rams team that knows the Seahawks are right behind them ready to jump ahead of them. The Rams weakness is rush defense (27th in the NFL at 123.3 YPG), but the Cards are last in rushing at 72.8 YPG, so I think they’ll struggle.

Rams QB Jared Goff has also been playing really well spreading the ball around and while WR Sammy Watkins may be shadowed by CB Patrick Peterson, I think the rest of the Rams players will step up. They can score over 30 on these guys again.

The Pick: LA Rams 34-17

Philadelphia (10-1) -5.5 @ Seattle (7-4) [8:30pm SUN]

If the Seahawks were fully healthy on defense with their star secondary players healthy I might pick them, but the absence of CB Richard Sherman and S Kam Chancellor makes their defense just a bit above average even at home. The Eagles have won nine straight and their lowest point total during that stretch was 26 points. In the last five wins, their offense has been even better (their low was 31 points in a blowout win last week) and I don’t see them slowing down against a Seahawks team that gave up 34 points to the Falcons at home two weeks ago. The Falcons have a great offense too, but the Eagles are better this year and should be able to score a lot just like the Falcons did.

There’s a lot of balance on that Eagles offense. QB Carson Wentz does a great job of involving TE Zach Ertz, WRs Alshon Jeffrey and Nelson Agholor, as well as their RB rotation of LeGarrette Blount, Jay Ajayi and Corey Clement, filling their roles as well. Nobody has been able to stop them. I don’t see that changing this week, but perhaps next week my Rams can do it. This feels like the kind of game where Seahawks QB Russell Wilson will have to throw 40+ times and have the game of his life to even stay close because the Seahawks run game won’t do much against the Eagles #1 ranked rush defense. I think it will be close most of the game, but the Eagles will pull away late.

The Pick: Philadelphia 37-24

Pittsburgh (9-2) -5.5 @ Cincinnati (5-6) [8:30pm MON]

It’s possible there will be an upset here. The Bengals are only one game back from a playoff start after an 0-3 start that led to their offensive coordinator getting fired. It’s good to see rookie RB Joe Mixon playing well for them since he’s clearly their best RB that didn’t play that much early in the year. The problem is the Steelers offense is too good. I know QB Ben Roethlisberger has struggled on the road, but he’s playing much better in November than he did in the first two months.

When they played earlier in the year, Pittsburgh dominated in a 29-14 game where they leaned heavily on RB Le’Veon Bell, who had 134 yards on 35 carries to go with 58 receiving yards. Meanwhile, the Steelers kept Bengals WR AJ Green in check with just 41 yards. I don’t think the Bengals have the firepower to win this game, but they might be able to keep it closer at home than they did on the road.

The Pick: Pittsburgh 27-20

My Fave Five Bets Of The Week

It was nearly a perfect week last week. The Eagles crushed the Bears as I thought, Giants/Redskins went way under their 44 point total and I got the Titans by half a point over the Colts. Ravens over Texans by 7 was a push and I got the Broncos wrong at the Raiders.

Last week: 3-1-1 (Season 30-28-2)

Here are my five favorite bets for this week.

LA Rams -7 @ Arizona
@ LA Chargers -13.5 Cleveland
@ Miami +1.5 Denver – I hate betting on a game with two bad teams, but there’s absolutely no reason for the Broncos to be favored on the road.
Detroit @ Baltimore UNDER 40.5
@Jacksonville -9.5 Indianapolis

That’s all for this week. I’ll be back for more next week. Enjoy the games.