Thanksgiving weekend was (relatively) kind to us and, seemingly in the blink of an eye, the full third of the 2017 NFL season has arrived. It is certainly a grind at this point of the campaign, dealing with weather, varying degrees of effort and even full-fledged messes like the one transpiring in New York with Eli Manning. Still, we remain focused on the task at hand and, simply put, that is picking the correct side of NFL totals on a weekly basis.
Before arriving at this week’s selections, let’s review the action through 12 weeks.
- Last Week: 3-2
- Season: 33-27
Come get these winners.
49ers and Bears OVER 40.5 points
It is very weird for me to lead with an Over selection but we’re riding with Jimmy Garoppolo. It isn’t so much about being seduced by his brief appearance last week but more about San Francisco’s play-caller (Kyle Shanahan) being blessed with a functional NFL quarterback for the first time this season. Chicago’s offense isn’t exactly inspiring in opposition but the Niners’ defense isn’t exactly stifling either. In the end, I have some faith (with good projected weather) in these two offenses coming together for some reasonable numbers and Garoppolo’s first start in a new locale tips the scales for us.
Broncos and Dolphins UNDER 19.5 points in the first half
They couldn’t make this total low enough. I promise you. If you needed convincing, Denver is starting a different quarterback (again) but, once more, just take the Under. It’s the only side.
Giants and Raiders UNDER 42 points
We gave out an Oakland Over last week and that didn’t go well. Much of that wasn’t the fault of the Raiders but, without Michael Crabtree and (potentially) Amari Cooper, that offense isn’t scaring me in the way that it normally would. The trump card, though, is New York’s offense without Eli Manning and I can’t fathom that unit being competent. That could come back to bite us if the Raiders can create a turnover that ends in a score but Oakland’s defense is sketchy enough where that isn’t a reason for terror.
Eagles and Seahawks UNDER 23.5 points in the first half
Seattle’s defense is battered and Philly’s offense is rolling right now. In fact, the entire world is on the Eagles on the road and, well, that makes sense until you realize that fading the public is usually a good idea. Alas. For our purposes, this is a selection based heavily on a “kitchen sink” game from Seattle and a Philly defense that has the ability to wreck everything up front with terrifying defensive linemen on the field. It may not be fun to sweat but the first half Under seems right.
Steelers and Bengals UNDER 43 points
These two teams don’t like each other and Pittsburgh’s offense has just been different on the road this season. The total being this low should scare some people off and, given the Monday night time slot, the public should come crashing in on the Over to help our case in fading everyone. Oh, and the Steelers are tremendous defensively to the point where they are fully capable of shutting down Andy Dalton and company in a dynamic way. Let’s end the week in style with a majestic Under.
