Sometimes, you’re just lost and that’s where we’ve been. Three ugly weeks in a row bring us back to .500 for the year (sigh) and not even the first teaser ever handed out in this space could save the day. Oh, and the Atlanta Falcons are effectivelly dead to us.
Still, there are four weeks remaining in the NFL season for us to right the ship in advance of the playoffs and we’re getting back to basics for the Week 14 slate. At some point, our principles are all that we have and it’s time to focus on them.
Let’s briefly check out the season-long progress before we get to this week’s quintet of selections.
- Week 13: 1-4
- 2018 Season: 31-31-3
Come get these winners.
Indianapolis Colts (+4.5) over Houston Texans
The Texans may never lose again and the Colts just got shut out (!) by the Jaguars in a hideous defeat. Naturally, we’re on the Colts. Yes, Houston should be favored in this game but, quite honestly, it should probably be 3 or 3.5 points and we’ll take the extra juice with Andrew Luck as an underdog. We’re absolutely going against the grain here but that is the nature of getting back to our principles.
Kansas City Chiefs and Baltimore Ravens UNDER 53 points
It really isn’t any fun to root against Kansas City’s offense scoring points. With that said, Baltimore utterly smothered Atlanta’s offense indoors last week and the Ravens are playing a grind-it-out style with Lamar Jackson at quarterback — and running a lot of clock in the process. The name of the game will be keeping the ball out of Patrick Mahomes’ hands but, even when he has it, the Ravens deploy arguably the league’s best defense. We’ll root for field goals and punts.
San Francisco 49ers (+4.5) over Denver Broncos
The Broncos need this game but they are banged up and the Niners are being undervalued as a result. Obviously, Denver is the better team but there is a reason this line is falling despite more than 70 percent of the tickets coming in on the Broncos. This is a classic fade the public spot, as everyone rushes to center on the “must-win” nature of the game while ignoring line value.
Philadelphia Eagles (+3.5) over Dallas Cowboys
More than 60 percent of the tickets are on the Cowboys at home and it is easy to see why. Dallas is playing great, particularly on defense, and the Eagles have been shaky. Still, Philadelphia is a team that seems to be coming out of their slumber to some degree and this is the spot to fade the Cowboys after their huge and memorable win over New Orleans last week.
Minnesota Vikings (+3.5) over Seattle Seahawks
A Monday night underdog! It doesn’t get any better than that and, in my opinion, you’re getting more than a field goal with the better team. Seattle is playing quite well and that can’t be ignored. There is still line value here and I just can’t quit this Vikings team. Fade the public. Take the points.