Week 17 of the NFL slate is brutal, especially if you are tasked with finding five winners against the spread. Yes, there are games that matter when it comes to playoff positioning but, in the same breath, there is so much weirdness with player availability, motivational factors and generally meaningless football that it is quite difficult to discern.
On the heels of a relatively disappointing Week 16 effort, however, we are highly motivated to find value and that is exactly what we’ll do in this space. Let’s catch up on our season-long progress before diving into the regular season finale.
- Week 16: 2-3
- 2018 Season: 41-36-3
Come get these winners.
New York Giants (-6) over Dallas Cowboys
It feels insane to lay six points with the Giants. I get that. Dallas isn’t going to be putting in a full effort, though, and that means that New York is the only side you can play. It would’ve been nice to get this earlier in the week when the number was lower but, if the game script plays out as expected (meaning very little of Dak Prescott and Ezekiel Elliott), the Giants should get us to the window.
Atlanta Falcons (-1) over Tampa Bay Buccaneers
In all honesty, the Falcons should have shut things down a couple of weeks ago but they just won’t do it. In contrast, there are rumblings that Tampa Bay could be using this game as something of an evaluation tool for the future and that swings the pendulum to Atlanta. This game means nothing, but the Falcons are just better and we’ll roll with Matt Ryan and company.
Cleveland Browns (+6) over Baltimore Ravens
This number is falling and you’re going to want to get six before it slips any further. With that out of the way, the Browns have more than enough firepower to keep this close and all indications are that Cleveland will be giving it 100 percent in an effort to pull the division upset. Baltimore probably wins on the field but this is a team built for a slug-fest and it’s tough to see anything but the favorite getting a full six.
Washington (+7) over Philadelphia Eagles
More than 80 percent (!) of the tickets are on the Eagles, as Nick Foles has led an awakening in Philadelphia. As a result, this number is off by about a field goal. No one in the world is going to want take to Washington here, but they should be trying (in spoiler fashion) and there is just too much value to pass up in catching a full touchdown at home.
Indianapolis Colts (-3) over Tennessee Titans
This is about as public of a play as we’ll ever recommend and I’m aware of it. The Colts are just better than the Titans, however, and it’s time to hop on the road favorite before the number rises even more. There is a good chance that Tennessee will be without Marcus Mariota but, even if he plays, I’m comfortable with this number and a play on Andrew Luck in a must-win spot.