Week 1 of the 2017 NFL season wasn’t exactly chalked full of high-scoring action. As a result, handicappers who went in search of the “under” were victorious more often than not and that applies to our own efforts when it comes to totals. This week, we’re back again and using our principles to fade the public but, before we get there, let’s check in on where we stand.
- Last Week: 3-2
- Season: 3-2
Because it can be difficult to unearth five under wagers every week, we’ll throw one curve ball at you for Week 2 but, have no fear, we’re not abandoning our beliefs. Beyond that, there is a theme of avoiding the overreactions that plague the casual handicapper and that comes in particularly handy this time of year. Let’s get to it.
Browns and Ravens UNDER 39.5 points
Nearly 75 percent of the action on this total is going over at this point and, frankly, it is easy to see why given how low it is. With that said, the number has actually dipped since its opening and that is a sure sign that you want to be on the other side.
Baltimore’s defense appears to be real and, while Cleveland has some legitimate talent on offense, this could turn into a rock fight in a hurry. Root for punts and field goals in what might be a closer game “than the experts think.”
Eagles and Chiefs UNDER 47.5 points
The Chiefs lit New England’s defense on fire and the Eagles scored 30 points on the road in the nation’s capital in Week 1. As a result, this number is a few points too high and the only play is on the under.
It is possible that Alex Smith is suddenly the captain of a dynamic offense but Kansas City’s calling card remains on the other side of the ball and this is a tough spot for Carson Wentz. Did I mention that Philly’s defense is legitimate as well? That helps, too.
Vikings and Steelers UNDER 45.5 points
Minnesota’s offense looked genuinely good (Sam Bradford!) against New Orleans but this is an entirely different situation. Namely, Pittsburgh’s defense has quite a bit more talent than that of the Saints and, on the flip, the Vikings have the ability to at least slow the Steelers a bit.
It might not be the easiest sweat of your life, but this number is too high for a game involving these two defenses. Look for Bradford and company to come crashing to earth while their defense remains stout enough to slow the tremendous Steelers offense.
Jets and Raiders OVER 43.5 points
I hate giving out overs and that comes through with 9 of my first 10 selections in this space coming on the under side of the card. Still, the over is occasionally the right play and this is a good example given the strange circumstances.
The Jets are (very) bad at football but Oakland’s defense, even after an impressive showing against Tennessee, is a question mark. Moreover, the Raiders should be able to dial-a-score against this New York defense and something approaching a 34-14 final score makes sense to me. Close your eyes and fade my natural instincts.
Falcons and Packers UNDER 27 points in the first half
The full game total of 54 points scares me a bit on Sunday night, if only because Matt Ryan and Aaron Rodgers are both very good at football and playing within the confines of a shiny, new stadium in Atlanta. However, both defenses are actually underrated in this game and the public will be all over the other side of the card in this match-up.
The second half could turn into a shootout but, if all goes according to plan, you’ll cash your ticket before that occurs. Beware the public game with two dynamic offenses.
