NFL Week 3 Point Totals: Fading The National Television Audience


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Week 2 of the 2017 NFL season was a strange one and, much like Week 1, it was marred by some (very) inconsistent offensive football from a few squads. Fortunately, our tendency is to lean toward the “under” side of things when it comes to handicapping football totals and, well, fewer points lead to better results. With that in mind, we were an errant Aaron Rodgers interception on Sunday evening away from a 5-0 mark and “settling” for a 4-1 performance is never a bad thing.

Before we get to the Week 3 slate, let’s check in to see where we are for the season in breaking down totals.

  • Last Week: 4-1
  • Season: 7-3

Some of the early season overreaction has calmed a bit but, have no fear, there is plenty to take advantage of in the market this week. Let’s roll through the totals, remembering that the mission is, as always, to fade the public.

Rams and 49ers UNDER 40 points

Bookmakers were probably challenged to make this total as low as possible and they really tried. For me, though, there really isn’t a (rational) number in which I would take the over in this spot.

In addition to the simple fact that neither offense scares me in the slightest here, Thursday night has produced some ghastly football in the recent past. I trust the Los Angeles defense more than any single unit in this game and, on the bright side for our wager, the Niners were frisky in preventing Russell Wilson and company from dominating in Week 2. A total this low can be scary and that helps the public to stay away or even (gasp) take the over. We will not be deterred.

Ravens and Jaguars UNDER 39 points

Hello, London! There is nothing quite like a nationally televised football game with a total less than 40 points but that is what the NFL provides to its English consumers this week. Baltimore came out of the gates blazing to the tune of a 2-0 record but it hasn’t exactly been an offensive barrage against the Browns and Bengals. Throw that in the mix with a Jaguars team that has a real defense (second half in Week 2 not withstanding) and this could be the opposite of an entertaining game.

It is still early but indications would be that, well, the over will end up being the play of the public because this is a highly visible contest. I can’t imagine leaning that way in a game quarterbacked by Joe Flacco and Blake Bortles (facing quality defenses) and the absence of Marshall Yanda for the Ravens makes me even less confident that they can sustain drives. Hopefully, this would be a buy day for field goal kickers and punt teams.

Giants and Eagles UNDER 43.5 points

14. 10. 17. 19. 19. 13. 3. 10.

Those are the point totals for the New York Giants over the last nine games. I know handicapping is difficult but, sometimes, it’s just that easy.

Odell Beckham Jr. was able to take the field and provide something close to effectiveness on Monday night but it wasn’t close to enough to spur a Giants offense that is completely lost. In fact, Philly’s defense is (much) better than the group from Detroit that just slowed this Giants team to a standstill and the one worry in this spot would be Carson Wentz going crazy against a Giants secondary that is banged up at the moment. That’s not enough for me to stay away, though, and the public being on the over (as usual) only bolsters my confidence in this spot.

Raiders and Washington UNDER 27 points in the first half

Our singular loss a week ago was the first half under on Sunday evening but that won’t stop us from going back to the well. This contest between Washington and Oakland has the highest game total of the week and both offenses are potentially explosive. With that said, there is something to fading the public on the “bonanza” of the week and the great majority of folks will be pounding the over at a key number.

Could Derek Carr make you cringe with a couple of early touchdowns? Absolutely, but Oakland’s pass rush could also give Kirk Cousins fits and there isn’t a ton of excitement with the Washington offense. Ultimately, this is just a system play against everyone who will be chasing from earlier and the first half provides a truer outcome than the full game in this spot.

Cowboys and Cardinals UNDER 47 points

Monday night is often the ultimate chaser game for anyone that lost money over the weekend and that will be doubly true for a contest that features the league’s most prominent team. Moreover, Dallas does not look like the well-oiled offensive machine from a year ago and the Cardinals have been an absolute mess on that end of the field since the moment David Johnson went down with a long-term injury.

It should be noted that this line isn’t insane by any stretch and it likely prices in some regression from both sides. In the same breath, the public generally only leans one way and we generally lean the other when that happens. There is some danger that Dak Prescott, Ezekiel Elliott and company suddenly click or that Carson Palmer takes advantage of a Cowboys defense that just got popped by Trevor Siemian. I’m willing to take that chance.

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