We’re Picking Winners For Every Week 7 Game Of The NFL Season

The unpredictability of the 2017 NFL season continued in Week 6 with plenty of upsets. The Kansas City Chiefs are no longer undefeated after losing at home to the Pittsburgh Steelers, which wasn’t a huge upset, but the Atlanta Falcons blowing a 17-0 lead at home to the Miami Dolphins and losing 20-17 was brutal to see. Those Falcons sure don’t know how to protect leads, huh?

Another upset I didn’t see coming was the New York Giants finally getting their first win on the road in Denver. They dominated that game and won, 23-10. Before the year I thought they were a playoff team, then they started 0-5, I figured they were going to win about three games and suddenly they look pretty good again. Welcome to the NFL. You just never know what might happen.

There was also some sad injury news last week as Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers landed on his right shoulder after taking a hit from Vikings linebacker Anthony Barr. It was a legal hit, but Rodgers ended up with a broken collarbone that required surgery. Rodgers is likely out for the year while Brett Hundley will take over for the Packers at QB the rest of they ear. That means the Packers went from possible Super Bowl team to a team that may not make the playoffs even with a 4-2 record.

One of the weirdest stats about this season so far is that home teams have a losing record at 44-45. That is so rare.

A lot of times when I pick games between two teams that I think are pretty close, I’ll lean towards the home team because they usually win more than they lose. Not this year.

Last Week’s Results:

7-7 Straight Up (51-40 Season)
6-8 Point Spread (40-51 Season)

It was the second straight 7-7 week straight up. It’s fine, but I need to do better than that.

Note: The point spreads I use come from VegasInsider. All times listed are in the Eastern Time zone.

The following teams have byes this week: Detroit and Houston.

Kansas City (5-1) -3 @ Oakland (2-4) [8:25pm THU]

The Chiefs are 3-0 on the road and are looking to bounce back after a tough home loss. I can’t figure out the Raiders because I thought they might turn it around last week, but they played awful against the Chargers in a divisional home game. The difference in this game will be in the run game because Chiefs rookie RB Kareem Hunt has made that offense explosive while Raiders RB Marshawn Lynch is showing why he was retired last year. He just hasn’t looked great. Add in Raiders Pro Bowl WR Amari Cooper playing awful and the Raiders have all kinds of issues right now. I’ll take the Chiefs to win a close game on the road.

The Pick: Kansas City 27-23

Jacksonville (3-3) -3 @ Indianapolis (2-4) [1:00pm SUN]

The AFC South is tough to figure out with three teams sitting at 3-3 and the Colts are in last at 2-4. If the Colts are going to contend for the division they really need this game. There’s some concern with the Jags because star rookie RB Leonard Fournette is dealing with a knee/ankle injury, but he should play. I’m going to lean with Colts for the home upset because I don’t believe in the Jags that much thanks to inconsistent QB play from Blake Bortles. It’s hard to trust them.

The Pick: Indianapolis 20-17

Baltimore (3-3) @ Minnesota (4-2) -5.5 [1:00pm SUN]

I can’t figure out the Ravens. One week they look great and then they look awful. Home and road doesn’t matter with them. They have 8-8 written all over them, so it’s no surprise they are 3-3 right now. The Vikings have benefited from a favorable schedule because they’re 3-1 at home, so this is their fifth home game in the first even. At least they are good at home unlike some teams. I like the Vikings a lot and think they’ll force past his prime Ravens QB Joe Flacco (he’s really not good right now) into some mistakes. Boring game to watch, but give me the Vikings to win.

The Pick: Minnesota 23-13

Tennessee (3-3) -5.5 @ Cleveland (0-6) [1:00pm SUN]

There could be an upset here since the Browns announced that they are going back to rookie QB DeShone Kizer. Just because there could be, doesn’t mean I’m going to pick it. The Titans run game should dominate the game with RB duo Demarco Murray and Derrick Henry carrying the load. I liked seeing Henry get more carries last week. I think that will continue.

The Pick: Tennessee 30-20

NY Jets (3-3) @ Miami (3-2) -3 [1:00pm SUN]

Both of these teams are better than I thought they’d be, so credit the coaches for getting them to play hard. While the Dolphins offense is only average a measly 12.2 points per game, they have a winning record right now, which tells me their defense is very good. I think they are going to shut down the Jets offense in what will be another boring game.

The Pick: Miami 20-13

Tampa Bay (2-3) @ Buffalo (3-2) -3 [1:00pm SUN]

I’m writing this at a time when we don’t know if Buccaneers QB Jameis Winston is going to play. Reports are good that he will. Even if he does, I’m leaning toward the Bills. I really like the way QB Tyrod Taylor has started this year even with one of the worst WR groups in the league. He makes plays when they need it and I think RB LeSean McCoy could have a big game after coming off a bye week. Give me the Bills to win comfortably at home.

The Pick: Buffalo 27-17

Carolina (4-2) -3 @ Chicago (2-4) [1:00pm SUN]

The Bears are playing hard for veteran coach John Fox and you know this is a big game for him because he used to coach the Panthers. I like how the Bears are keeping it simple by running RB Jordan Howard a lot (36 carries for 167 yards last week in a win) and making it as easy as they can for rookie QB Mitchell Trubisky. With that said, I think the Panthers have too much talent for the Bears to handle and I’m going to go with QB Cam Newton leading his team to a late drive for a win that will see the Bears cover the spread.

The Pick: Carolina 26-24

New Orleans (3-2) -5.5 @ Green Bay (4-2) [1:00pm SUN]

That spread looks so weird, but the absence of Rodgers is such a major factor in this game. Do I roll with a Hall of Fame QB Drew Brees that is playing well or an unproven young guy like Packers QB Brett Hundley? I gotta go with Breese. I also really like the RB duo of Ingram and Kamara for the Saints because they are both running hard. I’d like to see star WR Michael Thomas get going a bit more, though. Also, give the Saints defense some credit because they are playing better than expected. Going with the Saints on the road here.

The Pick: New Orleans 31-20

Arizona (3-3) vs. LA Rams (4-2) -3.5 [1:00pm SUN in London England]

This game is in England, so no home field advantage for my Rams. Then again, the fans in LA aren’t that good anyway, which means there’s very little advantage when they are at home. What concerns me here is that RB Adrian Peterson looked great in his Cardinals debut with 134 yards and 2 TDs on 26 carries. The Rams defense is vulnerable against the run. What excites me as a Rams fan is the Cardinals are giving up 26.3 points per game and the Rams are scoring 29.8 points per game. I can see the Rams having a lot of running success with star RB Todd Gurley and when the Cards focus on the Rams, QB Jared Goff should find some guys open down the field. I see this as a big Rams win.

The Pick: LA Rams 37-23

Dallas (2-3) -6 @ San Francisco (0-6) [4:05pm SUN]

I feel bad for the Niners sitting at 0-6 with five straight losses by three points or fewer. That’s brutal. Give them credit for playing hard for new head coach Kyle Shanahan because they are clearly lacking in terms of talent, but they are putting up a fight week after week. It also makes me want to bet on them to cover the spread. As for the saga of Cowboys RB Ezekiel Elliott, it appears as though he’s going to play this week. Even if he wasn’t, I think the Cowboys would win this game because they should be focused trying to get to .500 and I think they’re too good to be 2-4 after a loss to the Niners.

The Pick: Dallas 28-23

Seattle (3-2) -5.5 @ NY Giants (1-5) [4:25pm SUN]

Is it time to believe in the Giants again after a big win in Denver last week? Sorry. I can’t. I don’t trust their offense enough to be able to score consistently against a defense like the Seahawks. There just aren’t a lot of weapons on the Giants right now. I think the OLine stinks too. What’s concerning for the Seahawks is they don’t have much of a running game. Still, I like QB Russell Wilson to make plays throwing on the run and look for TE Jimmy Graham to break through with a big game. Just a gut feeling.

The Pick: Seattle 24-13

Denver (3-2) @ LA Chargers (2-4) -1.5 [4:25pm SUN]

Every year it seems like there’s a team that starts 0-4, people write them off as being terrible and then then they win four in a row, get to .500 and all of a sudden we’re back to thinking maybe they are a playoff team. That team could be the Chargers this year, who have a huge game against the Broncos if they want to think of themselves as a playoff team. The reason I like the Chargers here is they have a lot of offensive weapons thanks to RB Melvin Gordon and I like the receiving group that includes WR Keenan Allen and TE Hunter Henry is being utilized more. With Denver, I just they aren’t that consistent on offense. From week to week, you never know what you’re going to get. Give me the Chargers in a big home game.

The Pick: LA Chargers 27-20

Cincinnati (2-3) @ Pittsburgh (4-2) -5.5 [4:25pm SUN]

When the Steelers got hammered by the Jaguars at home two weeks ago in a 30-9 loss, people wondered if they were still good. Then the Steelers went into KC, dominated the Chiefs thanks to 179 rush yards from Le’Veon Bell and 155 receiving yards from Antonio Brown. It’s as if the Steelers realized they have the best RB/WR duo in the NFL and feeding them relentlessly is not that hard to do. I can see them doing it again against the Bengals, who have a lot of issues themselves. Give me the Steelers in a comfortable home win.

The Pick: Pittsburgh 33-17

Atlanta (3-2) @ New England (4-2) [8:30pm SUN]

This is the Super Bowl rematch as the Falcons face the Patriots with nightmares of blowing a 28-3 Super Bowl lead dancing in their heads. The over/under in this game is a huge number at 55 points, but there’s a reason for it because both offenses can put up a lot of points and the Patriots have given up at least 300 yards of passing every game this year. That’s some brutal defense. I think the biggest problem with the Falcons is they haven’t got star WR Julio Jones going yet. Five games into their season and he has no touchdowns. What’s up with that? They need to target him more around the red zone. That’s why I’m going with the Patriots because QB Tom Brady has a lot of weapons and guys like TE Rob Gronkowski look really tough to stop. I like the Patriots to win, cover and it’s going over 55 too.

The Pick: New England 37-27

Washington (3-2) @ Philadelphia (5-1) -4.5 [8:30pm MON]

Consider me officially a part of the Eagles bandwagon. While I won’t go as far as saying that they are going to be top seed in the NFC playoffs for sure, they are playing very well on both sides of the ball and I’m really impressed by the poise shown by second year QB Carson Wentz. I still have major concerns with their lack of a run game, but Wentz is spreading the ball around and the receivers are making plays. Add in an underrated, young defense that is keeping them in games so that the offense can put them over the top. I’m very impressed. As for Washington, they have the makings of a .500 team with an inconsistent run game and good QB play from Kirk Cousins. I just don’t think they have the defense to sustain success. This feels like a shootout type game and I’m going with the Eagles.

The Pick: Philadelphia 34-24

My Fave Five Bets Of The Week

I went 3-2 for the second week in a row thanks to the Texans and Titans winning big while the Lions/Saints game went way over 50. I lost on the Ravens and Raiders, both of whom are very inconsistent to start the year.

Last week: 3-2 (Season 13-17)

Here are my five favorite bets for this week.

@ Pittsburgh -5.5 Cincinnati
LA Rams -3.5 Arizona
Washington @ Philadelphia OVER 48.5
@ New England -3.5 Atlanta
@ Buffalo -3 Tampa Bay

That’s all for this week. I’ll be back for more next week. Enjoy the games.