The second half of the 2017 NFL season is officially here and, in this space, the first half went pretty well. Sure, there were some bad beats along the way but picking winners at a 57.5 percent clip isn’t something to complain about through eight weeks of action. Of course, things nearly went flying off the rails in Week 8 specifically with three straight losses to begin the slate but, have no fear, the final two contests fell on the right side to preserve order in the universe.
This week’s schedule is a potentially juicy one but, before we get to the five selections, let’s formally check in on where we stand for the full season.
- Last Week: 2-3
- Season: 23-17
Come get these winners.
Bills and Jets UNDER 21.5 points in the first half
Let’s get weird on a Thursday. Buffalo has been sneaky good on offense lately and that is scary but Thursday can often shut down offenses even when they are playing well. The Bills invested in Kelvin Benjamin at the deadline but he can’t possibly be up to speed in three days and, well, the Jets are the Jets. Honestly, the Bills’ defense is quite good (even without Marcell Dareus) and let’s hope that a rock fight breaks out in the first and second quarters.
Bucs and Saints UNDER 50 points
Tampa Bay’s offense has been a giant letdown this season, even if there is an excuse with Jameis Winston at less than 100 percent. On the flip side, the Saints are stunningly competent on defense and they have held opponents to 17 points or less in three of the past four games. This is admittedly a scary pick in the event that Winston suddenly springs into action but it is the right side and we’re rolling with it.
Falcons and Panthers OVER 43.5 points
We’re now 1-1 on the Over side of things this season after last week’s gamble went awry. Still, I really like this one, even if it involves a Panthers team that let us down previously. This is, frankly, a bet on the Atlanta offense getting right in this spot and the Falcons managed to score 25 points in a driving rain storm last week in New York. The other side of the ball is slightly more worrisome given that Cam Newton suddenly has a shortage of weapons but Atlanta’s defense can be relied on for silliness and this feels like a 28-24 game to me.
Raiders and Dolphins UNDER 44 points
The Dolphins have scored more than 20 points once this season. That is the centerpiece of this wager and it certainly doesn’t hurt that Marshawn Lynch is back after a one-week absence for Oakland. Make no mistake, “Beast Mode” hasn’t been great this season but the Raiders can (and, I believe, will) lean on him for a heavier workload given fresh legs and the Dolphins aren’t explosive enough to take advantage of Oakland’s porous defense. It also helps that Jay Ajayi is no longer involved for Miami. Under is the only move.
Lions and Packers UNDER 21.5 points in the first half
This was a far more interesting match-up on paper when Aaron Rodgers was involved and the Lions were sitting at 3-1. Now? Detroit is kind of a mess and it is tough to decipher what exactly the Packers will look like in a post-Rodgers world. One bit of a safety, though, comes in the fact that Green Bay should be fairly conservative in leaning on Aaron Jones on the ground. That, in addition to Detroit’s reasonable defense, should paint a picture of punts and field goals in the first half on Monday evening. Let’s ride.
