The NFL is back and we’re back with it.
Over the last few years, we’ve been firing away with five picks against the spread each week and, in short, the 2018 season was fairly kind to us. In general, the principles are clear in that we will look to attack the market in search of value, often landing on the opposite side of the public and backing unsightly teams in ugly spots. As a result, we’ll be delivering more Under bets than Over bets and, in terms of the side, favorites will be few and far between.
It should be noted that the market is fairly dry in Week 1, simply because these lines have been available for a long time and the typical value that can emerge has largely vanished. Still, we feel comfortable with this quintet of selections and, before firing away, let’s glance at last season’s results.
- Super Bowl: 1-1 (Sean McVay didn’t enjoy himself)
- 2018 Season: 53-43-4
Come get these winners.
Carolina Panthers (+2.5) over Los Angeles Rams
Hopefully you were smarter than I am and were able to secure a full three points here. With that out of the way, I still like the Panthers in an unsightly spot. Yes, the Rams were awesome last year and made a run to the Super Bowl but the roster is a little bit worse this time around and that doesn’t even take Todd Gurley’s uncertainty into account. Throw in the early-season weirdness when traveling East to play the Panthers on a hot afternoon and a suddenly healthy Cam Newton? I would’ve taken this all the way down to a pick’em.
Jacksonville Jaguars (+3.5) over Kansas City Chiefs
This is hideous but there is a reason virtually every sharp bettor has the Jags in this game and the line fell as a result. Yes, the Chiefs are better than the Jags but Jacksonville is undervalued based on some weirdness from last season. Would I bet Kansas City at pick’em? Yes, yes I would. But that’s not the line here. I’m happy to take the Jags at +3.5 or better and, given the bet splits (most of the tickets on KC but the money on Jacksonville), the smart money is to fade the public with vigor.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (PK) over San Francisco 49ers
As noted earlier, I don’t like giving out many favorites but, after a line move, the Bucs aren’t favored anymore! Tampa Bay isn’t exactly a preseason darling and there is some faint hype about the 49ers with Jimmy Garoppolo back and healthy to go along with an intriguing roster. It’s going to be steamy in Tampa on Sunday, though, and I’m a big fan of this kind of situation. The Bucs should be better offensively with Bruce Arians and, even if you don’t fully buy that, you can fade the public with me.
Pittsburgh Steelers (+5.5) over New England Patriots
For a while now, the Patriots have owned the Steelers and that has to scare you a little bit. New England should (obviously) be favored in the game but I’m not entirely sure where the extra cushion comes from to take this into the “Vegas zone” before kickoff. Some are skeptical of Pittsburgh in a world without Antonio Brown but, with Devin Bush flying around on defense and Ben Roethlisberger still on the field, the Steelers should be the AFC North favorites (sorry, Browns) and this number is a point or two off.
Houston Texans (+7) over New Orleans Saints
The Saints are terrifying at home and I fully grasp that. As a result, this line is inflated and the number treats the Saints as more than a field goal better than the Texans on a neutral field. I don’t see that as reality, particularly with just a bit of skepticism about New Orleans as the 2019 approaches. I wouldn’t take this at less than seven but, with the full touchdown, let’s ride with Deshaun Watson and company.
