After some up-and-down moments, we found our footing in the NFL during Week 9. If anything, the results probably should have been better than they were, with the Giants imploding sub-optimally on Monday night and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers giving away what was a clear cover. Alas, we press on after a winning week and the slate in Week 10 also has value to be had.
Before setting out on another journey, here is our season-long progress.
- Week 9: 5-2-1
- 2019 Season: 24-26-1
Come get these winners, with our traditional five-game slate.
Oakland Raiders (+1.5) over Los Angeles Chargers
The market continues to be too low on the Raiders and we’re going back to the well after a winner last week. Los Angeles is overpriced after an impressive win against Green Bay last week (a game we also nailed) but, quite honestly, I think the wrong team is favored. The Chargers famously have no home-field advantage but Oakland actually does, and there is no chance you can convince me that Los Angeles is three or four points better than Oakland on a neutral field. Throw in the perceived edge of home teams on short weeks and the play is the Raiders.
Cincinnati Bengals (+10) over Baltimore Ravens
Double-digit home underdogs are basically a principle for us. It won’t be fun to back the Bengals in this spot but, after a big win, the Ravens are slightly overvalued and we have to take the points.
Atlanta Falcons (+13) over New Orleans Saints
If Matt Ryan doesn’t play, this will be torture and, honestly, it might be anyway. The Falcons are terrible and the Saints are… not terrible. Still, Atlanta will give its best effort in a rivalry game and the spread is a little bit inflated given what the Falcons are able to do offensively with Ryan at the helm. It’s a play on the number more than anything else.
Cleveland Browns (-2.5) over Buffalo Bills
This is hideous. The Browns have been as disappointing as any team in the NFL, they are poorly coached and it isn’t fun to bet on them. I get all of that. However, there is a reason that there has been some reverse movement in Cleveland’s favor and it is that this is the right side. The Browns have more talent, they’re playing at home in a desperation spot and the line is less than a field goal. I don’t like to take favorites in this space but this is one that we have to have.
Los Angeles Rams and Pittsburgh Steelers UNDER 21.5 points in the first half
This total is already down to 43.5 from 45.5 with regard to the full game and there is a ton of sharp action on the under. It has the feel of a slug-fest, with Pittsburgh taking the air out of the ball and a Rams team that is better defensively than offensively at this point. Sweating a first half total this low isn’t always a pleasurable experience but, with enough punts and field goals, we can get there together.