The 2019 NFL season has been quite a journey but, after 10 weeks, we’re in the black. It took a 4-1 performance in Week 10 to get there but, at least for a few brief moments, we’re on the right side of history. There is no time to rest, though, as Week 11 arrives with haste and the search for value continues.
Before we get to the slate, here is a check-in on our progress.
- Week 10: 4-1
- 2019 Season: 28-27-1
Come get these winners.
Cleveland Browns (-2.5) over Pittsburgh Steelers
Line-shopping is crucial but, at the time of this post, there are some 2.5’s available and that’s the way to go. Pittsburgh is a (very) public underdog after another win last week and, even with Cleveland winning, they didn’t look great in doing so. That allows us to take some value with the more talented team at home. Betting on the Browns right now is torture but we’re fading the public and taking a short home favorite. It’s science.
Carolina Panthers (-5.5) over Atlanta Falcons
I can’t believe I’m laying 5.5 points in this column. It’s just not something we do very often. With that said, I can’t imagine playing the Falcons in this spot. Last week, Atlanta was an auto-play but, well, I didn’t see them actually winning (decisively) on the field in New Orleans. The Falcons played great, particularly on defense, but count me as a skeptic of that repeating. We’re getting a few points of free value when compared to the look-ahead line and Carolina needs this game. Lay it.
Jacksonville Jaguars and Indianapolis Colts UNDER 21.5 points in the first half
Spoiler alert: This is not the only first half total this week. With that out of the way, this feels like a low-scoring affair and I tend to lean toward the first half. Jacksonville’s offense is anything but dynamic and, in the recent past, Indy’s offense hasn’t been as good as its defense. Jacoby Brissett is back and that’s a little bit scary but, in the end, the under is the side.
Denver Broncos (+10.5) over Minnesota Vikings
I’m not high on this Denver team and haven’t been the entire season. This number is still too high for my blood and, to reinforce that belief, 67 percent of the tickets are on Minnesota (per Action Network) with less than 30 percent of the actual money. Give me the points and we’d all be wise to ignore this game until it’s over.
Chicago Bears and Los Angeles Rams UNDER 20.5 points in the first half
The Rams somehow got us to the first half window last week despite two defensive touchdowns. That was the right side all the way and, while the distinction between 20.5 points and 21.5 points in the first half is a noteworthy one, this should be a rock fight. Los Angeles is legitimately good on defense and, by now, we all know what the Bears are. Bring me the punts and field goals.