After a relatively dismal start to the 2019 NFL season in this space, a sharp uptick happened. In fact, the last three weeks of ATS picks yielded a blistering 13-4-1 mark. That isn’t sustainable over the long term (obviously) but it was nice to see some positive regression. There is plenty of opportunity once again in Week 12 and, before we get to the slate, let’s check in on the season-long numbers.
- Week 11: 4-1
- 2019 Season: 32-28-1
Come get these winners.
Philadelphia Eagles (-1.5) over Seattle Seahawks
The Seahawks have won three in a row, including a wild road win over San Francisco. The Eagles lost to the Patriots last week and, while there was no great shame in a one-score less to New England, they didn’t look great. Naturally, I’m taking the (tiny) home favorite. Philly is more talented than Seattle. It’s not a joy to bet against Russell Wilson but give me the favorable number and put me on the other side of the public.
Denver Broncos (+4) over Buffalo Bills
This line is inching down, even with more than half of the betting tickets on the Bills. That is usually a pretty good indicator of sharp action on Denver and that is where we’re headed. Honestly, I’m a Broncos skeptic but that sentiment is also true of the Bills. As long as you’re getting 3.5 or more, I like it in a game with a total in the 30’s.
Carolina Panthers (+9.5) over New Orleans Saints
It wouldn’t be the worst idea to wait and see if this hits 10. I still like it at 9.5, though, and this is a virtual must-win for the Panthers. That doesn’t necessarily swing the scales but, in truth, this line is about 2 points too high. It may not feel like much, but let’s go against the public and take the hefty underdog in a divisional battle.
Washington Redskins (+3.5) over Detroit Lions
The Lions should not be laying more than a field goal on the road without Matthew Stafford. I understand Washington is terrible. Truly, I do. The home dog is the only side you can take.
New York Jets (+3) over Oakland Raiders
The NFL didn’t exactly build its schedule in coherent fashion this week, with only two games in the 4:00 pm ET window. As such, we are loading up on early games, if only because that is where the value is. The Jets are playing close to their talent level in the last two weeks and, with more than 60 percent of the tickets on the Raiders, only one-third of the real money is on Oakland. You know what to do.
