The NFL season is officially in the stretch run with only three weeks of regular season football on the horizon. That is, of course, highly unfortunate for anyone that loves the sport but there is still value to be found at the sportsbook. In Week 14, we posted a 3-2 record that honestly could’ve been better if not for some bad breaks for the Patriots and shakiness from the Cardinals. Alas, we press on with another interesting slate, fading the public at (almost) every turn.
Here is a look at the season-long progress, before we get to this week’s card.
- Week 14: 3-2
- 2019 Season: 41-34-1
Come get these winners.
Houston Texans (+3) over Tennessee Titans
With the way the Titans have played during a four-game winning streak, I actually understand this point spread. Ryan Tannehill looks like a new man and Tennessee might actually be good. What I don’t believe, though, is that the Titans are flat-out better than the Texans. Houston flopped in spectacular fashion last week to give us some value and the dog is where I’ll be.
Detroit Lions (+3.5) over Tampa Bay Buccaneers
No one in the world should watch this game unless they have an emotional tie to one of the franchises. Naturally, that means we’re betting it. The line implies that the Bucs are a touchdown better than the Lions on a neutral field and that frankly isn’t the case. I know Detroit has been a mess lately but there’s a reason this line came down from four. The public will be on Tampa Bay (to the extent the public cares) but Detroit is the side.
Atlanta Falcons (+11) over San Francisco 49ers
If you threw out the first seven weeks of the season, you’d think this line was criminally insane. Yes, the Falcons haven’t been very good this season but, in their last five games, Atlanta is 3-2 and playing competitive football. The 49ers are clearly better than the Falcons but there is let-down potential for San Francisco after a huge win in New Orleans. For good measure, Atlanta’s offense is fully capable of kicking the backdoor in if needed in the fourth quarter.
Los Angeles Chargers (+2.5) over Minnesota Vikings
There are still places where you can buy this up to 3 at a cheap price. If that’s available to you, it’s probably a wise move. With that out of the way, there are sharps everywhere that like the Chargers this week. It’s a prime “fade the public” spot with more than 80 percent of the action on Minnesota and, with a healthier roster lately, Los Angeles is friskier on defense. It’s hideous, but it’s a play we’re giving.
Dallas Cowboys (+1) over Los Angeles Rams
The Rams are seemingly figuring things out and the Cowboys are a total mess after three straight losses. As such, this line has moved wildly in favor of Los Angeles, even on the road, and Dallas is now a home underdog. More than 80 percent of the action is on the Rams and it is easy to see why. You know we’re on the Cowboys. Come on.
