Greetings, friends. The NFL season rolls along and, with back-to-back positive weeks in the rear view mirror, optimism is high. Week 3 was particularly kind, with a 4-1 performance on the books and a perfect, 5-0 showing just a stone’s throw away (curses to the Dolphins). That isn’t a realistic expectation on a weekly basis but, alas, we press on with lofty goals.
Before getting into this week’s quintet of selections, let’s check in on the season-long view.
- Week 3: 4-1
- 2019 Season: 8-7
Come get these winners.
Philadelphia Eagles (+4) over Green Bay Packers
I hope you got 4.5 or even 5 earlier in the week before sanity prevailed. Philadelphia remains the right side on Thursday evening, though. Green Bay is off to a strong start but a deeper look indicates that the Packers have been a little bit fortunate to this point. On the other side of the ledger, the Eagles haven’t been great but they are a little bit healthier now than in a disappointing loss to Detroit. From a top-to-bottom standpoint, I’d favor the Eagles roster and that, coupled with the full four points, leads me to the road underdog.
Miami Dolphins (+16) over Los Angeles Chargers
Let’s go to the well again. Honestly, the Dolphins were the right side last week but, of course, they fell short. To be fair, the Jets were the wrong side against the Patriots and they got to the window, so the split was just fine. Regardless, this line is just flat-out too high with Miami playing at home. If it was 14, I’d think about actually passing on the Dolphins because, well, they’re terrible. We can’t pass at this number.
Carolina Panthers (+4.5) over Houston Texans
This is a coin flip game to me. I’m sure that will strike some people as odd considering the presence of Kyle Allen but, in short, Cam Newton wasn’t CAM NEWTON before he went down and I trust Carolina’s full roster more than Houston’s. It is fair to point out that the Texans have the significant quarterback advantage here and no rational person would argue. Still, there is just enough value in the number to take Carolina and pray.
Cleveland Browns (+7) over Baltimore Ravens
It hasn’t been the best season for the young Browns. Freddie Kitchens looks over-matched, Baker Mayfield hasn’t been electric and the results aren’t positive. As a result, this line moved swiftly in the direction of Baltimore and the world is on the Ravens. Count me as something of a Baltimore skeptic but, to be clear, this is a value grab on Cleveland. The hate has gone too far.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+10) over Los Angeles Rams
In a not-so-shocking turn of events, we’re riding with another double-digit underdog. Honestly, this is a play against the number rather on explicitly on the Bucs but Tampa Bay has real backdoor potential with their passing game. The Rams should win and so with relative comfort, but Los Angeles hasn’t looked quite as good as the early returns dictate. We’re taking the line value and fading the public side.