After an 8-2 showing in Weeks 3 and 4, the reckoning arrived in Week 5 with a 1-4 performance in the NFL. Honestly, it was closer to 0-5 than it was to 2-3 and, while sometimes things happen, it didn’t feel great.
We’re ready to hunker down in advance of Week 6, though, and the slate is more appetizing this time around. Before we check in with this week’s quintet of selections, let’s briefly look back at the carnage.
- Week 5: 1-4
- 2019 Season: 13-12
With that out of the way, come get these winners.
New York Giants (+17) over New England Patriots
The Giants have very few healthy weapons offensively and that has caused this number to move even further in New England’s direction. I totally understand that but, for me, the number was too high before the moves. It won’t surprise anyone that I’m taking a multi-score underdog but, on Thursday night and with how the Patriots look on offense recently, it’s just too many points.
Cleveland Browns (+1.5) over Seattle Seahawks
No one is on the Browns in this game and it’s easy to see why. Cleveland was horrendous in front of a national audience last week and Seattle picked up a nice victory. Still, the number is a bit of an overreaction, especially when compared to look-ahead lines, and this could be a “kitchen sink” spot for the Browns. It brings me life when the world is on the other side and that definitely applies here.
Jacksonville Jaguars (-1) over New Orleans Saints
If Teddy Bridgewater plays like he did last week, the Saints are in great shape. No one would deny this. He’s going to have to do it again to convince, me though, and the Jaguars as a small home favorite makes sense. The vast majority of betting tickets are on New Orleans and that won’t change before kick-off, but Jacksonville is undervalued here against a public team and I’ll take the value.
Los Angeles Rams (-3) over San Francisco 49ers
Am I really about to give out a seemingly obvious favorite? I don’t usually do that but, if this game happened one week ago, the Rams might’ve been a full-touchdown favorite. Los Angeles didn’t light the world on fire but they lost, by one point, on a short week to a quality team and I’m betting that Monday’s result was more about the Browns incompetence than the 49ers dominance. If the number was 6 or 6.5 like it was on the look-ahead, I wouldn’t be giving out the Rams. At the current number, the only play, for me anyway, is on the favorite.
Tennessee Titans (+2.5) over Denver Broncos
The Titans took it on the chin last week, losing a slug-fest to the Buffalo Bills at home. It was a hideous and simultaneously beautiful football game but it also results in Tennessee being undervalued this week. That is doubly true when considering the perceived bump on the Broncos side, when Denver took advantage of the Chargers’ ineptitude on the way to their first win. I’m betting that the original look-ahead line (in the PK range) was more indicative than the current number. I think the Titans win outright here but, if they don’t, the candy could be useful.