Hello darkness, my old friend.
Week 6 was a disaster in the NFL, beginning with a bad beat on Thursday night and moving into a Sunday bloodbath. Things like this happen in the handicapping universe but, honestly, let’s just move on and try to right the ship by fading the public and digging in.
Here’s the season-long progress, marred by the hideousness of a week ago.
- Week 6: 0-5
- 2019 Season: 13-17
With that out of the way, come get these winners… and we’re giving out six picks this week to change up the mojo.
Oakland Raiders (+5.5) over Green Bay Packers
I don’t think people realize that the Raiders are decent. Are they going to win in Green Bay? Maybe not, but the Packers are probably worse than their record indicates and Oakland is the sharp side. It would’ve been better at the top line of 7 but 5.5 is enough to get me on the potentially frisky underdog.
Miami Dolphins (+17) over Buffalo Bills
The Dolphins are absolutely wretched. I’m well aware of this. You still can’t convince me that laying 17 (!!!) points with Josh Allen is a good idea. Close your eyes and fire.
Indianapolis Colts (-1) over Houston Texans
I love this spot for the Colts. Houston is playing its second straight road game and last week’s come-from-behind win over the Chiefs attracted a lot of attention. Meanwhile, Indianapolis had the week off to prep for a crucial divisional battle and they have the benefit of home-field advantage in this spot. In truth, the Texans might be slightly better than the Colts under perfect conditions but small home favorites are a vice of mine and the Colts win this game.
Washington (+10) over San Francisco 49ers
Once this hit 10, we had to take it. Washington isn’t very good and the 49ers are legitimately good. With that said, we’re just playing the number and hoping for an inspired effort from the home team. San Francisco is just a little bit inflated in the market after their hot streak.
Chicago Bears (-3) over New Orleans Saints
Nearly 70 percent of the tickets are on the Saints on the road and they’ve won four straight games. I get it. They’re really good. The Bears suffered a brutal loss in London two weeks ago, but after that, they enjoyed a bye week and this sets up as a monumental effort for the home team. It may not be fun to lay points with Chicago’s offense and that is why they aren’t getting much support. That allows us to take the favorable price and hopefully get to the window.
New York Jets (+10) over New England Patriots
The entire universe is on the Patriots here and that’ll only increase as Monday night approaches. It’s usually not a good idea to bet against the Patriots but, with 10 points as a key number, the Jets can get us home. We hope.