Welcome to Keys to Victory, the ongoing series that attempts to guess how mixed martial artists will try to win the biggest fights of their lives. In this edition, the UFC 202 main event between Nate Diaz and Conor McGregor receives my analytical eye.
Conor McGregor
Force the Lean
Part of Conor’s plan in the first fight was to get Nate to lean into an uppercut. McGregor never caught it flush enough to put Diaz down, but he did get that reaction several times in the bout. The lean is important because it’s a big reason why Josh Thomson was able to stop Diaz in the second round of their bout. Thomson threw a right leg headkick that Nate ducked into, compounding the force of the impact. Since he’s the only guy to beat Nate without a wrestling-heavy gameplan, Conor could do well to learn from Josh’s success.
If Conor can use jabs and hooks to force Nate into leaning forward and slam an uppercut into his chin, that could be the knockout McGregor thinks he’s going to get. Of course, he’ll have to do more than just throw strikes to get the right reaction he’s looking for.
Protect the Body
I mentioned it in the UFC 196 Fight Rewind, but while overloading on power strikes and a poorly planned weight gain contributed to Conor tiring out, Nate’s body work certainly added to it as well. A more measured pace won’t mean much if Nate digs into Conor’s body and saps his energy. Plus, early body work will probably cause Conor’s hands to drift down to protect his midsection, opening up his head for some of Nate’s one-two combos.
Nate Diaz
Controlled Volume
With a full camp and a solid cardio base, Nate should be able to throw at his typical 70 to 90 punches per round rate. However, if Diaz is flicking out little baby jabs at 50 percent, that gives Conor good opportunities to come over the top with his counter straight left. If Nate increases his volume, he’ll need to put a little more force behind some of his jabs and one-twos to stun Conor enough so that Diaz can reset his defense.
Dominate the Clinch
Despite the lanky frame, Nate is a deceptively strong guy, at least against fellow lightweights, which is really what Conor is. His long body also gives him an advantage when throwing knees, minimizing the amount of distance they need to travel to an opponent’s body and head. Nate did a lot of good work when he clinched Conor against the cage. Either to just put his weight on McGregor or to land devastating knees to the body, Nate’s clinch helped him win the first fight. If Nate can close distance, force Conor against the fence and unload, he’ll have a very good chance of winning.
You can see if either man uses these tactics in the main event of UFC 202, available only on pay per view.