After a momentous and very long Saturday night at the Director’s Guild Awards, Hollywood will focus its attention to the 17th Annual Screen Actor’s Guild Awards Sunday evening. Unlike the Golden Globes, this union of TV and movie honors actually means something because of the large crossover between both the Television and Motion Picture Academies. So, in may ways you’re looking at a sneak preview for best actor at the Oscar just as much as best actress in a drama series at the Emmys.
This year the most competitive category on the film side is in best ensemble where “The Fighter,” “The King’s Speech” and “The Social Network” all hope to gain some leverage in their respective races for the best picture Oscar. At this point, “Network” needs a momentum swing the most. Especially after losing both the Producer’s Guild and the Director’s Guild awards over the past week. It’s “The Fighter,” however, that has the best shot to dominate this night by possibly winning both supporting actor races and ensemble. And with Micky Ward and Dickie Eklund expected to be in the house, how could it not?
HitFix will provide full coverage of the SAG beginning with red carpet galleries and a live blog of the show by our esteemed Executive Editor and television connoisseur Daniel Fienberg. Always wanting to make sure our audience is fully informed, I’ve included Dan’s thoughts on the TV races along with my own picks for the movie side below.
OUTSTANDING PERFORMANCE BY A CAST IN A MOTION PICTURE
“Black Swan”
“The Fighter”
“The Kids Are Alright”
“The King’s Speech”
“The Social Network”
Who Will Win: “The Fighter”
Upset Contenders: “The King’s Speech”
Why: It meets all the criteria. A number of well known actors, a number of actors many day players have worked with and a number of great performances. “Social Network” crew? Too young. “Kids”? Really only three big performances. “Swan”? It’s really all about Ms. Portman. “Speech”? Maybe…but would be tough to overcome the star power of “Fighter.”
OUTSTANDING PERFORMANCE BY A MALE ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
Jesse Eisenberg, “The Social Network”
Colin Firth, “The King’s Speech”
James Franco, “127 Hours”
Jeff Bridges, “True Grit”
Robert Duvall, “Get Low”
Who Will Win: Colin Firth, “The King’s Speech”
Upset Contenders: James Franco, Jeff Bridges
Why: The only reason Firth would lose this is because the membership goes with the younger Franco or fan favorite Bridges, but it should be Firth. It should be.
OUTSTANDING PERFORMANCE BY A FEMALE ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
Annette Benning, “The Kids Are Alright”
Nicole Kidman, “The Rabbit Hole”
Jennifer Lawrence, “Winter’s Bone”
Natalie Portman, “Black Swan”
Hilary Swank, “Conviction”
Who Will Win: Natalie Portman, “Black Swan”
Upset Contenders: Annette Bening
Why: Let’s be clear, Bening has a shot here, but with such a large voting pool it’s hard to see Portman’s acclaimed performance in a much bigger hit losing.
OUTSTANDING PERFORMANCE BY A MALE ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Christian Bale, “The Fighter”
Mark Ruffalo, “The Kids Are Alright”
John Hawkes, “Winter’s Bone”
Jeremy Renner, “The Town”
Geoffrey Rush, “The King’s Speech”
Who Will Win: Christian Bale, “The Fighter”
Upset Contenders: Geoffrey Rush, “The King’s Speech”
Why: This is becoming one of the biggest locks of award season. Would be shocking if he lost.
OUTSTANDING PERFORMANCE BY A FEMALE ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Amy Adams, “The Fighter”
Helena Bonham Carter, “The King’s Speech”
Mila Kunis, “Black Swan”
Melissa Leo, “The Fighter”
Hailee Steinfeld, “True Grit”
Who Will Win: Melissa Leo, “The Fighter”
Upset Contenders: Amy Adams, Hailee Steinfeld
Why: Leo’s a lifer who has a lot of friends in town and among her fellow actors. She could easily be upset for Oscar, but she should win SAG.
TELEVISION
OUTSTANDING PERFORMANCE BY AN ENSEMBLE IN A DRAMA SERIES
“Boardwalk Empire”
“Dexter”
“The Good Wife”
“Mad Men”
“The Closer”
Fienberg Says: “Mad Men”
Why: “We still say the zombie ensemble of ‘Walking Dead’ was pretty spectacular, but they weren’t nominated, so SAG goes with TV’s best living ensemble.”
OUTSTANDING PERFORMANCE BY AN ENSEMBLE IN A COMEDY SERIES
“30 Rock”
“The Office”
“Glee”
“Modern Family”
“Hot in Cleveland”
Fienberg Says: “Modern Family”
Why: “Let the Golden Globes continue their flirtation with ‘Glee.’ SAG sticks to the respectable choice.”
OUTSTANDING PERFORMANCE BY A MALE ACTOR IN A DRAMA SERIES
Steve Buscemi, “Boardwalk Empire”
Bryan Cranston, “Breaking Bad”
Michael C. Hall, “Dexter”
Jon Hamm, “Mad Men”
Hugh Laurie, “House”
Fienberg Says: Bryan Cranston, “Breaking Bad”
Why: “Awesomeness, mostly.”
OUTSTANDING PERFORMANCE BY A FEMALE ACTOR IN A DRAMA SERIES
Julianna Margulies, “The Good Wife”
Elisabeth Moss, “Mad Men”
Glenn Close, “Damages”
Mariska Hargitay, “Law & Order: Special Victims Unit”
Kyra Sedgwick, “The Closer”
Fienberg Says: Julianna Margulies, “The Good Wife”
Why: “If she loses, she’ll stare down each and every SAG member and nobody wants that. Also, she won last year.”
OUTSTANDING PERFORMANCE BY A MALE ACTOR IN A COMEDY SERIES
Alec Baldwin, “30 Rock”
Steve Carell, “The Office”
Chris Colfer, “Glee”
Ty Burrell, “Modern Family”
Ed O’Neill, “Modern Family”
Feinberg says: Chris Colfer, “Glee’
Why: “If you love ‘Glee,’ you love Colfer. Even if you hate ‘Glee,’ you still love Colfer.”
OUTSTANDING PERFORMANCE BY A FEMALE ACTOR IN A COMEDY SERIES
Betty White, “Hot in Cleveland”
Sofia Vergara, “Modern Family”
Tina Fey, “30 Rock”
Edie Falco “Nurse Jackie”
Jane Lynch, “Glee”
Fienberg Says: Tina Fey, “30 Rock”
Why: “Wins two of the last three years. She’s Tina Fey, damnit.”
OUTSTANDING PERFORMANCE BY A MALE ACTOR IN A TELEVISION MOVIE OR MINISERIES
John Goodman, “You Don’t Know Jack”
Al Pacino, “You Don’t Know Jack”
Dennis Quaid, “The Special Relationship”
Edgar Ramirez, “Carlos”
Patrick Stewart, “MacBeth”
Fienberg Says: Al Pacino, “You Don’t Know Jack”
Why: Honestly, if you have to ask pt. 1
OUTSTANDING PERFORMANCE BY A FEMALE ACTOR IN A TELEVISION MOVIE OR MINISERIES
Claire Danes, “Temple Grandin”
Catherine O’Hara, “Temple Grandin”
Julia Ormond, “Temple Grandin”
Winona Ryder, “When Love Is Not Enough”
Susan Sarandon, “You Don’t Know Jack”
Fienberg Says: Claire Danes, “Temple Grandin”
Why: Honestly, if you have to ask pt. 2
STUNTS
OUTSTANDING PERFORMANCE BY A STUNT ENSEMBLE IN A MOTION PICTURE
“Green Zone”
“Inception”
“Robin Hood”
Who Will Win: “Inception”
Upset Contender: “Robin Hood”
Why: Biggest hit, most intricate stunts as well.
OUTSTANDING PERFORMANCE BY A STUNT ENSEMBLE IN A TELEVISION SERIES
“Burn Notice”
“CSI: NY”
“Dexter”
“Southland”
“True Blood”
Fienberg Says: “Southland”
Why: “Critical acclaim plus Los Angeles-based ensemble plus John Wells equals… As good a guess as we can make in this screwy category.”
The 17th Annual SAG Awards will be broadcast live on TNT and TBS beginning at 8 PM ET, 5 PM PT.