This was the first year I’ve posted the Vegas odds for the Oscars before the ceremony, and it was interesting to see how the reality matched up with the predictions. While predicting the Oscars is its own cottage industry, most of the people who do it do it full time, and they seem so invested in their own theories that it’s hard to take them seriously (also, what kind of sick person dedicates their life to predicting the f*cking Oscars?). But Vegas handicappers, who, from what I understand, adjust the lines solely to fit the way people are betting on it, were insanely accurate this year. The favorites won all but three awards.
The biggest money you could’ve won this year was betting on the animated short Mr. Hublot, an eight-to-one underdog. Though there was also some decent money to be had betting against Pink doing an acrobatic entrance, at +150. The dumbest money you could’ve spent was betting against Gravity winning best cinematography, at 100 to one, or against Dallas Buyers Club winning hair and make-up at same. Dallas Buyers Club seemed much less impressive to me than Bad Grandpa, but that’s before you consider that DBC‘s entire hair and make-up budget was $250. And that’s for every character, for a 28-day shoot. Impressive. I spend more than that every week on Brazilian blowouts for my pubes.
Best Picture
American Hustle
Captain Phillips
Dallas Buyers Club
Gravity
Her
Nebraska
Philomena
12 Years a Slave
The Wolf of Wall Street
WINNER: 12 Years a Slave. Vegas Odds: 1/5 (a heavy favorite)
Best Actor
Christian Bale, American Hustle
Bruce Dern, Nebraska
Leonardo DiCaprio, The Wolf of Wall Street
Chiwetel Ejiofor, 12 Years a Slave
Matthew McConaughey, Dallas Buyers Club
WINNER: Matthew McConaughey. Vegas Odds: 1/5 (heavy favorite)
Best Actress
Amy Adams, American Hustle
Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine
Sandra Bullock, Gravity
Judi Dench, Philomena
Meryl Streep, August: Osage County
WINNER: Cate Blanchett. Vegas Odds: 1/30 (so heavy a favorite that it was basically a foregone conclusion)
Best Director
David O. Russell, American Hustle
Alfonso Cuarón, Gravity
Alexander Payne, Nebraska
Steve McQueen, 12 Years a Slave
Martin Scorsese, The Wolf of Wall Street
WINNER: Alfonso Cuarón Vegas Odds: 1/20 (a favorite slightly less heavy than Cate Blanchett but also damn near a lock)
Best Supporting Actor
Barkhad Abdi, Captain Phillips
Bradley Cooper, American Hustle
Michael Fassbender, 12 Years a Slave
Jonah Hill, The Wolf of Wall Street
Jared Leto, Dallas Buyers Club
WINNER: Jared Leto. Vegas Odds: 1/10 (heavy favorite)
Best Supporting Actress
Sally Hawkins, Blue Jasmine
Jennifer Lawrence, American Hustle
Lupita Nyong’o, 12 Years a Slave
Julia Roberts, August: Osage County
June Squibb, Nebraska
WINNER: Lupita Nyong’o. Vegas Odds: 4/7 (a light favorite, just ahead of Jennifer Lawrence, at 5/4)
Best Adapted Screenplay
Before Midnight
Captain Phillips
Philomena
12 Years a Slave
The Wolf of Wall Street
WINNER: 12 Years a Slave. Vegas Odds: 1/7 (favorite)
Best Original Screenplay
American Hustle
Blue Jasmine
Dallas Buyers Club
Her
Nebraska
WINNER: Her. Vegas Odds: 5/7 (favorite)
Best Documentary Feature
The Act of Killing
Cutie and the Boxer
Dirty Wars
The Square
20 Feet From Stardom
WINNER: 20 Feet From Stardom. Vegas Odds: 3/2 (a light underdog, with Act of Killing the favorite at 1/2)
Best Foreign Language Film
The Broken Circle Breakdown (Belgium)
The Missing Picture (Cambodia)
The Hunt (Denmark)
The Great Beauty (Italy)
Omar (Palestine)
WINNER: The Great Beauty. Vegas Odds: 1/4 (favorite). Always bet on an Italian film with “beauty” in the title. Always.
Best Costume Design
American Hustle
The Grandmaster
The Great Gatsby
The Invisible Woman
12 Years Slave
WINNER: The Great Gatsby. Vegas Odds: 2/7 (a light favorite)
Best Cinematography
The Grandmaster
Gravity
Inside Llewyn Davis
Nebraska
Prisoners
WINNER: Gravity. Vegas Odds: 1/100 (The heaviest favorite imaginable)
Best Film Editing
American Hustle
Captain Phillips
Dallas Buyers Club
Gravity
12 Years a Slave
WINNER: Gravity. Vegas Odds: 1/3 (favorite)
Best Production Design
American Hustle
Gravity
The Great Gatsby
Her
12 Years a Slave
WINNER: The Great Gatsby. Vegas Odds: 4/7 (light favorite)
Best Original Score
John Williams for The Book Thief
Steven Price for Gravity
William Butler and Owen Pallett for Her
Alexandre Desplat for Philomena
Thomas Newman for Saving Mr. Banks
WINNER: Gravity. Vegas Odds: 1/7 (favorite)
Best Original Song
“Happy” from Despicable Me 2
“Let it Go” from Frozen
“The Moon Song” from Her
“Ordinary Love” from Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom
WINNER: “Let it Go.” Vegas Odds: 1/6 (favorite)
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Dallas Buyers Club
Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa
The Lone Ranger
WINNER: Dallas Buyers Club. Vegas Odds: 1/100 (favorite)
Best Animated Short Film
Feral
Get a Horse!
Mr. Hublot
Possessions
Room on the Broom
WINNER: Mr. Hublot. Vegas Odds: 8/1 (underdog – the favorite was Get a Horse! at 1/10).
Best Animated Feature
The Croods
Despicable Me 2
Ernest & Celestine
Frozen
The Wind Rises
WINNER: Frozen. Vegas Odds: 1/30 (favorite)
Best Visual Effects
Gravity
The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug
Iron Man 2
The Lone Ranger
Star Trek Into Darkness
WINNER: Gravity. Vegas Odds: 1/50 (favorite)
Best Live-Action Short Film
Aquel No Era Yo (That Wasn’t Me)
Avant Que De Tout Perdre (Just Before Losing Everything)
Helium
Pitääkö Mun Kaikki Hoitaa? (Do I Have to Take Care of Everything?)
The Voorman Problem
WINNER: Helium. Vegas Odds: 6/1 (Underdog. It was actually behind two favorites, The Voorman Problem at 4/7
and Avant Que De Tout Perdre at 2/1)
Best Documentary Short Subject
CaveDigger
Facing Fear
Karama Has No Walls
The Lady in Number 6: Music Saved My Life
Prison Terminal: The Last Days of Private Jack Hall
WINNER: The Lady in Number 6: Music Saved My Life. Vegas Odds: (N/A. I didn’t see odds for this one, but considering it was a short about the last surviving Holocaust survivor, who died last week, I assume they figured that the outcome wasn’t in doubt enough to warrant a betting line).