Say what you want about the NBA — that its regular season is too long, that there isn’t nearly enough parity, that tanking is ruining the league, or that there’s too much flopping — but there’s one thing even the fiercest of NBA critics can’t deny: the league’s offseason is, by far, the most eventful and interesting of any sport.
So far in the 2014 offseason, we’ve seen two head coaches (Steve Kerr and Derek Fisher) hired with zero previous coaching experience; a trade between the Knicks and Mavericks that sent Tyson Chandler back to Dallas; one of the most compelling NBA Drafts ever; four of the sport’s biggest stars (Carmelo Anthony, LeBron James, Dwyane Wade, and Chris Bosh) opting out of their contracts for next year; and Nets head coach Jason Kidd (Ed. Note: disgracefully) forcing a trade to the Bucks when the Bucks already had a coach.
All of that and free agency has only just begun.
This year’s free agent class — which includes not only Miami’s Big Three and Carmelo, but also Kyle Lowry, Eric Bledsoe, Greg Monroe, Chandler Parsons, and Lance Stephenson — is the most hyped free agent class since the summer of 2010.
Four years ago, we saw that 2010 class flip the NBA upside down: LeBron, Wade, and Bosh teamed up in Miami to create a Heat team that would make four straight NBA Finals, while Amar’e Stoudemire landed a max contract with the Knicks that eventually helped lure ‘Melo to New York.
This summer’s class, with the same type of star power, has the potential to alter the league in a similar manner.
Only one thing is for certain: the next few weeks are going to be really, really fun. The rest is unknown, with so many possibilities that await. But what exactly should we be focusing on this month? Well, that’s why I’m here.
Without further ado, here are the top 10 questions that will be answered during free agency:
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10. Can the Lakers do anything significant?
Can you believe we’re asking this question? About the Lakers?! The LOS ANGELES LAKERS?! Even with $30 million in cap space, the Lakers might not be a real player in free agency. Say what?! Yep, that’s the state the Lakers are in. They have enough room to sign LeBron or Melo, or even both, but neither are expected to seriously consider the Lakers — even with Kobe involved.
The team’s Plan B, according to ESPN’s Ramona Shelburne, will consist of pursuing Lowry, Monroe, Trevor Ariza and Channing Frye. That’s not a bad backup plan at all, but what are the chances that those four — especially Monroe and Lowry — would be interested in playing for the Lakers? Really, what’s so attractive? Playing with a breaking-down Kobe and a broken-down Steve Nash? Playing for a team that has taken a back seat to the Clippers in Los Angeles and will likely miss the playoffs again next season?
I don’t doubt that the Lakers will make a run at each and every one of this summer’s marquee free agents. I just don’t think the Lakers are still the LAKERS.
9. What’s next for Lance Stephenson?
Five weeks ago, the NBA world was fixated on Lance Stephenson and his crazy antics during the Eastern Conference Finals, when he went to any and all lengths to get under the skin of LeBron James, including blowing in his ear.
Lance Stephenson is now out of the spotlight, but his actions in the Conference Finals could still linger. I won’t be surprised if those actions ultimately reduce his options in free agency to one: re-signing with the Pacers.
It breaks down like this: Stephenson wants to get paid. But his behavior during the Heat series likely scared a lot of teams away from offering him big-time money. Everyone watched as he sucked the life out of his team early in Game 6, allowing Miami to run away with that game, and thus, the series.
Still, the Pacers and Larry Bird have made it clear that they want to keep their core intact. That means re-signing Stephenson and giving him enough money to keep him away from the few teams who still might be willing to pay him big bucks. One way or another, I see Stephenson in a Pacers jersey next season and beyond.
8. Where does Pau Gasol land?
Though he’s past his prime and isn’t quite among the elite free agents, Pau Gasol could be the X-factor in the 2015 free agent period. Gasol will reportedly meet with Golden State, Oklahoma City, Chicago, and maybe even Miami. Pau could push any of those four teams from contender to championship favorite, especially if Chicago can sign Carmelo and if Miami can bring back the Big Three. The Thunder have already made their pitch with Russell Westbrook and Kevin Durant flying out specifically for that purpose.
For a guy who’s had to deal with constant trade rumors, several coaching changes, and plenty of turmoil within the Lakers’ organization over the past few years, Gasol deserves the freedom of free agency more than just about anyone.
7. If Carmelo leaves, what’s next for the Knicks?
By opting out of the final year of his contract and admitting he wants to explore his options, Carmelo Anthony has made it clear he is serious about possibly leaving New York. The Knicks are quietly confident they will be able to re-sign the 2013 scoring champion, but they would be naive not to recognize that the possibility of life without ‘Melo is real.
If Anthony chooses to sign elsewhere this summer, the 2014-15 season will likely be a lost one for New York. A Jose Calderon, Tim Hardaway Jr., J.R. Smith, Amar’e Stoudemire, Samuel Dalembert starting lineup with a shaky supporting cast probably isn’t making the playoffs, even in the dreadful LEastern Conference.
Luckily, the task of trading Amar’e Stoudemire and/or Andrea Bargnani won’t be nearly as difficult as last year — both are now on expiring contracts.
So Phil Jackson has options: either he can attempt to deal one or both of those guys to team(s) trying to create cap space for next summer, or he can keep both and ensure that the Knicks have a good chunk of cap space for themselves in 2015.
Personally, I prefer the latter of those two plans. If the Knicks don’t make any further roster moves and if J.R. Smith opts-out after next season, they could only have four players under contract heading into 2015-16 — four players that will have a combined salary of about $12 million.
That would give the Knicks plenty of room to pursue big-name free agents in 2015, including LaMarcus Aldridge, Kevin Love, Brook Lopez, and Rajon Rondo. If the Zen Master could land one or maybe even two of those guys, the Knicks would again be relevant — and for real this time.
6. What will happen with Kevin Love?
Kevin Love’s days in Minnesota are almost certainly numbered. He said last month on “Sportsnation,” when asked if he wanted out of Minnesota, that his “agent is handling everything at this point.”
Translation: Yes, Love wants out.
But, if he’s traded, where will he go? He expressed interest in joining the Knicks on that same edition of “Sportsnation,” but New York isn’t exactly full of assets to swap for Love. The Warriors and T-Wolves have been in constant talks, but it seems hard to believe something will get done; Golden State is unwilling to part with Klay Thompson, the one guy that Minnesota wants in return for Love.
Love has also been tied to Cleveland, Houston, and Boston, but at this point it’s hard to really know what to expect. It’s seemingly more and more likely by the day that he will get traded at some point this summer, but it’s also become less and less clear which team will land him, or if he’ll sign an extension with them in a sign-and-trade scenario.
5. Which teams can make a run at LeBron?
It’s no secret that, if he’s really on the market, LeBron James is the prize of this free agent class. Except, which teams can actually make a run at signing him? Here are his top five suitors, in no particular order and according only to me, outside of the Heat:
CLEVELAND CAVALIERS: The Cavaliers are the one team, other than the Heat, who I believe LeBron will seriously consider signing with this summer. They offer what no other team can: a LeBron return to Cleveland and to the Cavaliers, his hometown team that he left in the dust four years ago. It would be the ultimate redemption story. Not only that, but the Cavs have pieces, including recently extended Kyrie Irving, Andrew Wiggins, and plenty of other young talent that could potentially be flipped to make Cleveland even more of a win-now situation.
DALLAS MAVERICKS: The Mavs’ best pitch to James? Without him, they took the Spurs to seven games in the first round of the 2014 playoffs. They came THIS CLOSE to taking down the Spurs — the one team LeBron has consistently had trouble with in the postseason. LeBron’s a smart guy. He has to at least consider the possibility that joining the Mavericks could be his best chance at getting past the Spurs and winning championship number three.
HOUSTON ROCKETS: The Rockets have the ability to make the same pitch to LeBron in 2014 the Heat made in 2010: they could team him with two superstars (in this case, James Harden and Dwight Howard) and build their own super team. LeBron can’t get the same caliber supporting cast in Houston that he can get by signing elsewhere, but he understands the value of playing with other superstars in today’s NBA, something that could make Houston a very attractive destination.
LOS ANGELES CLIPPERS: The Clips offer a sexy pitch. By joining them, LeBron would get to play with his best friend Chris Paul and with Blake Griffin, who finished third in MVP voting last season. He would also get to play for Doc Rivers, and he would have the opportunity to build his legacy in Los Angeles without having to worry about playing in the shadow of former Laker greats. If the Clippers can figure out a few cap-creating trades, watch out for them in the LeBron sweepstakes.
PHOENIX SUNS: The Suns are a weirdly attractive landing spot for James. Phoenix might not be an ideal market or location, but the Suns just won 48 games in great Western Conference and have a truckload of young talent — namely Goran Dragic, Eric Bledsoe, Gerald Green, and now T.J. Warren — that surely appeals to LeBron.
4. Which teams can make a run at ‘Melo?
Carmelo has been waiting for this for a long, long time. Not just to be a free agent and pick where he wants to play, but to be courted by teams around the league. He won’t garner quite the attention that James will, but he will have options this summer. Here are four teams I expect will make the most formidable runs at Anthony:
CHICAGO BULLS: Perhaps Anthony’s most desirable suitor, the Bulls need Carmelo as much as he needs them. If Anthony were to join the Bulls, he would get the supporting cast he needs and the Bulls would get the one piece they have been missing: another superstar to team with a (hopefully) healthy Derrick Rose, and specifically a superstar who can score. The Bulls finished first in the league in points per game allowed last season and second in field goal percentage allowed, but they need help offensively. They finished dead last in both points per game and field goal percentage last season. Anthony would give them the scoring threat they need, and then some.
HOUSTON ROCKETS: The Rockets can make the same pitch to Carmelo as they will make to LeBron. They have James Harden and Dwight Howard, two superstars ready to win now who could be paired with ‘Melo to create their own version of a Big Three. The problem? I don’t see Carmelo as a good fit in Houston. The Rockets struggled defensively last season, not scoring the ball — ‘Melo’s forte. Carmelo doesn’t do much to change their lapses on the defensive end. He and James Harden both need the ball in their hands and, to varying degrees, are both ball-stoppers. My guess is that Daryl Morey — Houston’s genius general manager who’s supposed to be an analytics guy — will luck out by not landing ‘Melo.
LOS ANGELES LAKERS: The Lakers have made it clear that they want Carmelo. They obviously aren’t in win-now mode yet, but could still have a decent pitch. They have Kobe, they will have plenty of cap space to add other marquee players either this summer or next, they’re one of sports’ most renowned franchises, and (even if it seems irrelevant) it’s at least worth mentioning that La La — Anthony’s wife — keeps a home in Los Angeles, and he summers in Southern Cali.
MIAMI HEAT: For Anthony to sign with the Heat, he would be sacrificing a lot: money, scoring, and the spotlight. He would have to set aside his ego, but the benefits would be there, too. He’d get to play alongside LeBron for years to come and would finally be able to taste real playoff success. Is it worth the sacrifice? That’s for ‘Melo to decide.
3. How much of a pay cut are Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh willing to take?
This is huge, especially if the Heat want to make a fifth straight NBA Finals and win a third championship in four years next season. LeBron wants a max contract, which means Wade and Bosh will need to take pretty severe pay cuts for the Heat to bring back the Big Three and still have room to build a formidable supporting cast around those three. If Wade and Bosh are both willing to take less money — first they were, now it’s not so clear — then the Heat could potentially chase another star or almost-star — perhaps a Greg Monroe, if money isn’t an issue or Detroit can work a sign-and-trade so he can escape Josh Smith. But if Wade or Bosh (or both) want to get paid and get paid big dollars, the Big Three era in Miami could be over.
2. What will Carmelo Anthony do?
Carmelo’s decision essentially boils down to this: he can either flee to Chicago and join a team that is ready to win a championship next year (especially if Rose is healthy), or he can choose to trust that Phil Jackson, Derek Fisher, and the Knicks will build a title contender around him in the (very) near future. Winning is really, really important to Anthony — it was easy to see how much pain this past season caused him. But, at the same time, he was born in Brooklyn and he does consider New York home. With all other variables held constant, he wants to play in the Big Apple, not in Chicago or in any other city. His dream scenario is to hoist the Larry O’Brien Trophy with the Knicks.
So will he play it safe, join the Bulls, and chase championships for years to come? Or will he take the risk, stay with the Knicks, and hope that the Zen Master can build a contender around him? As a Knicks fan, I pray that he stays right where he is in New York, and something tells me that’s just what he’ll do.
1. What will LeBron James do?
It’s pretty amazing to think that one individual has the ability to single-handedly shift the NBA’s balance of power, but that’s the reality LeBron is facing this summer. Whichever team he signs with — whether he stays in Miami or leaves — will immediately become either a championship contender or a heavy championship favorite (Ed. note: the Spurs will have something to say about that wherever ‘Bron lands).
Had you asked me a week ago, I likely would have said James was staying in Miami. But today? I’m not so sure. That’s because he’s looking for a max deal, now. If the Heat give LeBron a max deal and re-sign both Wade and Bosh, there likely won’t be the money left over to surround The King with a roster improved from a season ago. That might leave the door open for LeBron to look for a new home this summer.
Of the six other teams who can offer James a max contract, three are expected to pursue him: the Mavericks, the Lakers, and the Suns. But, as Windhorst pointed out, other teams trying to land James that don’t have enough cap space — such as the Cavaliers and the Rockets. They could either attempt to create cap space or could acquire James via a sign-and-trade with the Heat.
For the record, I have no inside information and I don’t have any possible way to know what James is thinking. Personally, I believe he has two real options: he can stay in Miami or he can return to Cleveland. If he signs anywhere else, people are going to start viewing him as a ring-chaser. That would severely damage his legacy, so much so that his chances of catching Michael Jordan as the all-time greatest — something he claims is his goal — would, in the eyes of most, have vanished.
LeBron, a student of the game and a pretty smart dude, has to know what his decision will mean within the larger history of the game, and he has to know that he can’t leave Miami unless he plans on returning to the Cavaliers and bringing glory back to the city closest to where he grew up.
So, for LeBron, it’s Miami or it’s Cleveland. I can’t wait to see what he does, in the same way that I can’t wait to see how everything else unfolds in free agency.
It’s going to be one crazy month.
What do you think?
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