The 46th annual CMA Awards air live Thursday on ABC from Nashville”s Bridgestone Arena. Hosts Brad Paisley and Carrie Underwood, who have developed true chemistry and comedic timing in their four previous years as hosts, are back. This year’s program promises plenty of drama, including will Blake Shelton and Miranda Lambert continue to be king and queen of the country prom? They’ve snagged male and female vocalist for the past two years. Will other multiple-year consecutive winners such as Lady Antebellum and Sugarland continue their streaks?
Among the performers, many of whom are debuting new songs, are Taylor Swift, The Band Perry, Jason Aldean, Tim McGraw, Reba McEntire, Jason Aldean, top nominee Eric Church, Kelly Clarkson, Dierks Bentley, Kenny Chesney, Luke Bryan, Miranda Lambert, Blake Shelton, Zac Brown Band and Keith Urban.
It”s been a strong year for country music and there continues to be an infusion of new, exciting talent. Below are my predictions on who will take home the big prizes. Short version: It’s Eric Church’s night.
We”ll be live blogging the CMAs, so join us here at 8 p.m. ET/5 p.m. PT on Nov. 1 for all the action.
ENTERTAINER OF THE YEAR
Jason Aldean
Kenny Chesney
Brad Paisley
Blake Shelton
Taylor Swift
All of these artists are great brand ambassadors for country music, which is an unspoken part of this award. Having said that, I would have swapped out Blake Shelton for Lady Antebellum, who had a tremendously successful world tour this year. While it”s easy to judge this solely on their live shows, the CMA tends to award someone more for all-around strength. Having seen all the nominees in concert over the past year or so, if it were solely on concert merit, I would give the award to either Chesney or Paisley, but Aldean”s star is rising and he”s now, like Chesney, risen to the stadium level. Combine that with his tremendous album sales and he”s the winner.
Will Win: Jason Aldean
FEMALE VOCALIST OF THE YEAR
Kelly Clarkson
Miranda Lambert
Martina McBride
Taylor Swift
Carrie Underwood
Hmmm. Let”s review, shall we? Kelly Clarkson is a pop star who occasionally crosses over (very credibly and well) into country music. Taylor Swift is a former country star who is really now a pop star. The overall weakness in this category shows how dominated country music is right now by male artists. McBride has the purest voice of the bunch, but the past winner won”t take home the trophy this year. Underwood”s voice is unbelievable as well. She”s the best singer to ever come out of “American Idol” (sorry, Kelly). Reigning winner Lambert is on a roll that shows no signs of stopping–nor should it.
Will Win: Miranda Lambert
MALE VOCALIST OF THE YEAR
Jason Aldean
Luke Bryan
Eric Church
Blake Shelton
Keith Urban
These are all solid hit makers and each is leaving his own mark on country music right now. It also shows the changing the guard: Urban is the only one that any of us had heard of 10 years ago (even though reigning champ Shelton was making records already, he didn”t really break through until a few years ago and then, since “The Voice,” has really exploded. Church, who is the most nominated artist this year, has carved out a slow and steady career for himself that seems about to bust wide open. His twang is instantly recognizable and CMA voters like the ring of stubborn authenticity he brings to the format.
Will Win: Eric Church
VOCAL GROUP OF THE YEAR
The Band Perry
Eli Young Band
Lady Antebellum
Little Big Town
Zac Brown Band
What was I saying about how strong solo males are in country right now? So are groups. This category rises and falls, but has a bumper crop this year. LBT has put out the best album of its career, ZBB brings lots of younger fans into the format who listen to way more than country music. Eli Young Band has momentum with last year”s “Crazy Girl” and then “Even If It Breaks Your Heart.” Lady A and TBP just keep getting stronger. While it may not be fair, it feels like it”s time to give Lady A a little bit of a rest from competition this year after the trio snagged the award the past three years.
Will Win: Eli Young Band
VOCAL DUO OF THE YEAR
Big & Rich
Love and Theft
Sugarland
The Civil Wars
Thompson Square
Perennially one of the weakest categories with the CMA often resorting to tired duos who have not received a lick of airplay in years to round it out, the vocal duo of the year category is having a little bit of a resurgence this year. For more than a decade, it was dominated by Brooks & Dunn and lesser acts, and then Sugarland took over the title. This year, five-time winner Sugarland is one of the weaker offerings (they didn”t put out a new album during the eligibility period, though they toured). Big & Rich came rebounding back, while Love and Theft is gaining momentum and Thompson Square had its biggest hit so far. The Civil Wars are astounding and are definitely country leaning, despite the fact that country radio doesn”t care about them.
Will Win: Thompson Square
NEW ARTIST OF THE YEAR
Lee Brice
Brantley Gilbert
Hunter Hayes
Love and Theft
Thompson Square
This tremendously strong slate features new acts all of whom have scored major hits this year (even if, like Brice and Gilbert, they have been around as songwriters for awhile helping other artists have hits). Having said that, it feels like a race between Hunter Hayes, Brantley Gilbert and Thompson Square, with Thompson Square seeming like the elder statesmen of the category. At 21, Hayes seems to represent young country, and country loves lauding artists who help lower the aging demographic. Plus, “Wanted,” which he co-wrote,” is a killer track.
Will Win: Hunter Hayes
ALBUM OF THE YEAR
Luke Bryan, Tailgates and Tanlines
Eric Church, Chief
Miranda Lambert, Four the Record
Dierks Bentley, Home
Lady Antebellum, Own the Night
It’s a toss-up between Lambert’s “Four The Record” and Church’s “Chief,” both of which were critical favorites (though Lambert’s album not so much as her previous efforts including 2010 winner “Revolution”). Bryan’s album seems like the weakest link here, but there’s no denying his appeal and he is very liked in Nashville. For all its strength, “Own The Night” is not Lady A’s best album.
Will Win: “Chief”
SONG OF THE YEAR (Award goes to songwriters)
Eli Young Band, “Even if It Breaks Your Heart” – written by Will Hoge and Eric Paslay
Blake Shelton, “God Gave Me You” – written by Dave Barnes
Dierks Bentley, “Home” – written by Dierks Bentley, Dan Wilson and Brett Beavers
Miranda Lambert, “Over You” – written by Miranda Lambert and Blake Shelton
Eric Church, “Springsteen” – written by Eric Church, Jeff Hyde and Ryan Tyndell
Since this award goes to the songwriters, I always think of how the song would sound accompanied only by acoustic guitar or piano. Stripping down a song to its core elements is usually a good way to judge it. “Over You,” written about Shelton”s brother, is heartbreaking and a strong contender. It”s going to be a close race between “Over You” and “Even If It Breaks Your Heart,” which took on a collective meaning for anyone who”s ever pursued a dream. A the selections show, the CMA tends to favor songs with “meaning,” over fluff.
Will Win: “Even If It Breaks Your Heart”
SINGLE OF THE YEAR (Award goes to artist and producer)
Jason Aldean, “Dirt Road Anthem”
Blake Shelton, “God Gave Me You”
Dierks Bentley, “Home”
Little Big Town, “Pontoon”
Eric Church, “Springsteen”
“Dirt Road Anthem” seems a little too past its prime to still be forefront in voters” minds. “God Gave Me You” is a syrupy ballad and “Pontoon,” as summer-loving fun as it is, is a trifle (though it did provide LBT with its first No. 1). “Home” hits all the right notes: patriotic without being jingoistic. However, it”s Eric Church”s year…and, apparently, Springsteen”s too.
Will Win: “Springsteen”