Turbulence, unlike the ’90s Ray Liotta/Lauren Holly thriller, is a miserable experience at the best of times, and can be actively dangerous. Right now, your best chance of avoiding it is booking a morning flight, but according to new research, even that won’t hold for long.
Turbulence is caused by wind shear, a difference in wind speed, direction, or both over a relatively short distance. Think of it as the equivalent of stepping in a puddle while walking; you could just get the bottom of your shoe wet, or you could go knee-deep into a surprise pothole. The more wind shear there is, the more turbulence. So, yeah, guess what this study in Advances In Atmospheric Science found when they used climate models to study turbulence:
…we find that the ensemble average airspace volume containing light clear-air turbulence increases by 59% (with an intra-ensemble range of 43%–68%), light-to-moderate by 75% (39%–96%), moderate by 94% (37%–118%), moderate-to-severe by 127% (30%–170%), and severe by 149% (36%–188%). These results suggest that the prevalence of transatlantic wintertime clear-air turbulence will increase significantly in all aviation-relevant strength categories as the climate changes.
In other words, not only is turbulence going to be worse across the board, but the most dangerous forms of it will be even more prevalent. The good news is that turbulence doesn’t cause plane crashes or even cause much damage to the airplane, so this won’t down any flights. But, in the future, if you get on a flight and discover there’s now a five point harness where there used to be a seat belt, maybe buy a hybrid when you get back.
(Via Cosmopolitan)