Is The Republican Plan To Repeal Obamacare Already Doomed?

Ferris Bueller (and assorted memes) are right: life does move pretty fast, especially when it comes to the continuing efforts to remake health care in a more austere and less comprehensive manner.

On Monday night, it was revealed that Senator Jerry Moran (R-Kansas) and Senator Mike Lee (R-Utah) had decided that they couldn’t vote to advance the Senate’s plan to repeal and replace Obamacare (AKA, the Affordable Care Act). This brought the number of defectors to four including Senator Rand Paul (R-Kentucky) and Senator Susan Collins (R-Maine) and gave Republicans another very public whiff in their effort to change health care and placate Trump. But, perhaps unsurprisingly, that defeat was met with resiliency. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Kentucky) said the Senate would mount a standalone repeal effort that would then give legislators two years to replace the system they were aiming to kill and Trump tweeted out his support for that kind of tactic … among other things.

Do Republicans even have the votes to secure that, though? It’s still early, but things aren’t looking good. (Or, they’re looking great. It all depends on your perspective, really.)

Reports indicate that Collins, again, is going to vote a resounding “no,” and remarks from Senator Rob Portman (R-Ohio) indicate that he has ample reservations as well.

That’s potentially two, but the bill is still breathing with that head count adding up to a Vice President Mike Pence tiebreaker. Enter Senator Shelley Moore Capito (R-West Virgina), who released a statement wherein she said she can’t vote for a bill that doesn’t address her concerns and the concerns of her constituents.

This is less than 24 hours in. The repeal effort isn’t DOA, but it’s in definite trouble. And so the question becomes, is an exodus afoot? These public defections and doubts will give other senators cover should they want to follow. Beyond that, there are bound to be concerns expressed by the insurance industry about the difficulties that they face operating in this unstable climate (which would be made worse by a ticking doomsday clock hovering over their industry). When that happens, it will give even more cover to anyone on the right who is maybe hoping that this can just go away for a little while. But will McConnell and Trump allow that?

Trump seems fixated and unable to process not getting his way on what is clearly his chief legislative priority, but McConnell has to know that these repeated failures are a bad look for Republicans. And with one-party rule in Congress and the White House, he may not have as much faith in the blame game and its ability to sway independent voters and those not firmly cemented in the Trump camp this close to the mid-term elections.

The truth is, while Trump is a loud and unrelenting force who could, theoretically, focus his ire on any member of Congress at any time to their detriment via Twitter, his low poll numbers are bound to nip at the glamor that has taken a hold of some legislators in this honeymoon phase.

The time is nearing for them to decide whether they truly buy Trump’s shtick about polls and fake news, or if they believe that Trump is legitimately unpopular and maybe toxic. So much so that an association with him and, specifically, this less than broadly supported effort could cost them a lot more than being caught up in a tweet storm would. Maybe this is the start of recognizing that, or maybe this is just two and a half Senators standing out as an aberration. As Trump himself tweeted: “stay tuned!”