Ratings Analysis: FOX struggles, ‘S.H.I.E.L.D.’ bumps up, good times roll for ‘NCIS: NOLA’

I dunno about you, but I'm already getting disturbed by the fact that we're two days into the 2014-2015 season and we're largely disaster-free.

OK. That's not exactly true. 

FOX's Tuesday is a disaster. Yes, “Utopia” gets a bigger DVR bump that most reality shows. That's a dud. And yes, “The Mindy Project” will get a nice DVR bump and it's a really good show at this point, but those numbers aren't acceptable. I'll let “New Girl” skate by for a while, just because it isn't FOX's biggest problem. 

But leaving FOX's Tuesday aside… No disasters.

Tuesday's big new premiere was “NCIS: New Orleans” and it drew a massive audience, one that it's hard to imagine any new show topping over the next couple weeks.

And Tuesday's other premiere was ABC's “Forever,” which didn't do fantastically, but when the bar was set by “Lucky 7,” “Mind Games” and “Killer Women” last season… It's a hit!

“Chicago Fire” came back strong.

“NCIS” remains impressive.

And although nobody's jumping around for joy at the numbers for “Marvel's Agents of S.H.I.E.L.D.,” at least they went up from Fast Nationals.

Now let's take a deeper look at Tuesday's Live+Same Day ratings…

*** “NCIS” rose to 18.23 million viewers and also did a 2.9 rating among adults 18-49. While that's down from last year's premiere… So what? We're talking about the 259th episode of a drama in 2014. It strikes me that I haven't looked at the numbers for “NCIS” for a while, but they skew really female, with a 3.4 rating among adults 18-49 and a 2.4 rating among men in that age range. The gap is the same in the 25-54 demo, where “NCIS” does a 4.8 rating among women and a 3.8 rating among men. Yes, “NCIS” skews old, but the drama's 1.7 rating among adults 18-34 puts it above “Marvel's Agents of S.H.I.E.L.D.” and “New Girl” when it comes to L+SD numbers (that will no longer be true when we get to L+3). So… Yeah.