UFC On Fox 15 Predictions: Can Luke Rockhold Beat Lyoto Machida?

It’s fight time, so that means it is also picks time! UFC on Fox 15 will kick off at 4:30 PM ET on Fight Pass, so we are diving into the predictions head first.

Important Standings of Note:

Jessica: 360-234-4 (61%)
Burnsy: 369-224-5 (62%)
Vince: 189-115-2 (62%)
Ryan: 8-2-1 (77%)
Danny: 161-77-1 (67%)
Spilled: 76-56-2 (57%)
Sydnie: 16-12 (57%)
Chris: 35-11 (76%)
NY Ric: 36-26-1 (57%)
Ghost: 6-7 (46%)
Seth: 32-15 (68%)
Biss: 41-39-1 (51%)
Jared: 15-7 (68%)

Middleweight – Eddie “Truck” Gordon vs Chris Dempsey

Jessica: Ok, I’ve had some pretty terrible showings, so I’m going to really try hard (I have been saying this for the past ten months, but whatever). Both guys lost in their last bouts, both by KO. Gordon has a good reach advantage and his power is also decent. I’m going to say that Chris gets TRUCK’d and Gordon wins with a second round TKO.

Burnsy: I, on the other hand, am still 100% in all picks, regardless of what those numbers might say above. I’m going to take Chris Dempsey, because Clint and Patrick Dempsey are American heroes.

Jared: “Truck” shall runneth over Dempsey inside of 5 minutes.

Featherweight – Diego “DB” Brandao vs Jimy “The Kid” Hettes

Jessica: Hettes looked good against less than stellar competition, but each time he’s stepped up in opponent difficulty, things haven’t ended well. Brandao’s good, but his chin is kind of suspect. I don’t think Hettes has the striking to test it though. Brandao should be able to land some shots on Jimy and take care of things. Brandao wins by unanimous decision.

Burnsy: I’m going with a seldom used personal rule here – Brandao had the balls to take on two great fighters in his last two fights, so because he sacrificed himself for our entertainment, he’s due for a win.

Jared: Diego Brandao showed some restrain at the weigh-ins yesterday, what with him not threatening to stab Hettes with a pen and all. Clearly, he’s a changed man who will dominate Hettes until the final bell.

Welterweight – George “The Silencer” Sullivan vs Tim “Dirty Bird” Means

Jessica: Both dudes have good winning streaks and plenty of KO power. I want to give an edge to Means since I think he’s faced better opponents, but I can’t pick against a dude that sounds like a boxer from Ye Olden Tymes, fighting in his backyard. Sullivan wins with a third round TKO.

Burnsy: After being fed to the lion named Neil Magny in his return to the UFC last year, Dirty Bird has won three in a row and he’s only getting better. Sullivan, on the other hand, has won his first two UFC fights. The difference? I’ve heard of the guys that Means has fought. I like Means’ experience.

Jared: Means is the toughest sumbitch you’ll ever meet who’s been KO’d by a sauna. I like “Dirty Bird” to dominate the clinch with some dirty boxing and secure a first or second round TKO.

Bantamweight – Takeya Mizugaki vs Aljamain “Funkmaster” Sterling

Jessica: I’m super-torn here. I really like both dudes, and I’m sad that Mizugaki got derailed by the fury of Dom Cruz, but I think that Sterling is a better grappler across the board. Plus, he’s a Serra BJJ dude, and you can’t bet against STRONG ISLAND. Sterling wins a decision.

Burnsy: I’m not picking against the Funkmaster. You have to funk hard to become the master. He’s earned our respect.

Jared: I can’t believe Mizugaki is as big a dog as he is here. Sterling is a legit prospect, but he’s faced fuck-all in terms of competition. When it comes down to untested prospect vs. cagey veteran, I take the latter 10 times out of 10.

Light Heavyweight – Cory “Beastin 25/8” Anderson vs Gian Villante

Jessica: Again, I’m conflicted. Beastin 25/8 is a terrible nickname, and I’ve never been impressed with Gian “Chris Weidman’s Friend” Villante, who hasn’t had a winning streak since joining the UFC. He’s scheduled to lose, and that’s what I see happening. Anderson wins by second round TKO.

Burnsy: I made the mistake of making fun of Anderson’s nickname twice and he’s 2-0 in the UFC. Villante, on the other hand, basically has the same name as Jean-Claude Van Damme’s character from The Expendables 2. Anderson has earned my respect, so I will pick him (and he will probably lose).

Jared: Anderson. Villante is rubbish.

Light Heavyweight – Ovince “OSP” St. Preux vs Patrick “Durkin” Cummins

Jessica: St. Preux struggled to deal with Ryan Bader’s wrestling, and Cummins is probably a better wrestler than that. On the flip side, I really like OSP and I’m not a big fan of “Durkin”. I think OSP has good power in his hands and also decent submissions, which might threaten Cummins a little bit on the ground. Ultimately, I think St. Preux will manage to catch Cummins coming in with a big shot and put him to sleep. OSP wins with a third round KO.

Burnsy: OSP is one of my favorite fast-risers, but I’m going to ignore my gut here. I’m going to take Cummins for no reason other than my brain is telling me that OSP will make a dumb mistake.

Jared: Again, how OSP is being listed as the underdog here is insane. Pat Cummins has got solid wrestling, obviously, but shit for stand-up, and OSP is a deadly striker when he wants to be (see the Shogun fight). OSP by Chuck Liddell anti-wrestling all day.

Lightweight – Jim Miller vs Beneil “Benny” Dariush

Jessica: Dariush’s last loss was to Ramsey Nijem, while Miller’s last loss was to Cowboy Cerrone. I think that’s a good enough reason for me to pick Miller. I see Jim punching Benny in the face a lot and then submitting him in the second.

Burnsy: According to Vince, I’m not allowed to use “DARIUSH! DARIUSH! CAN YOU DO THE FANDANGO?!” but I’m still picking Benny to win. It’s probably not smart to pick the guy fighting on one month’s rest, but I always give a ton of credit to the guys who say, “F*ck it” and get right back at it.

Jared: I’m a huge fan of the Miller brothers. They brew their own beer and come to swang them bungalows every time they step into the cage. How can you not like them? THEY’RE BASICALLY AMERICA, YOU GUYS.
That being said, Dariush absolutely tooled Daron Cruickshank in his last fight, and even though he’s coming in on short notice, I like him to take out the fading Miller.

Strawweight – Felice “Lil Bulldog” Herrig vs “12 Gauge” Paige VanZant

Jessica: It’s kind of fitting that the main card starts with an Attractive Lady Fight since it’s headlined by a Handsome Man Fight. Anyway, both Felice and Paige have lost to Tecia Torres, but Paige was very early into her career at that point. I’m giving the edge to Paige, simply because I grew to seriously dislike Herrig on TUF 20. I’ll take VanZant to win a scrappy decision.

Burnsy: Two of my favorite female fighters because they finish the damn fight. I always give the edge to the KOs, though, so I’ll take 12 Gauge to blow us away.

Jared: Van Zant via athleticism. Herrig is a striker with subpar striking and will have nothing to offer here.

Featherweight – Cub Swanson vs Max “Blessed” Holloway

Jessica: Is it just me, or do these guys look really similar in their face-parts? Like, swap their hair (or lack thereof) and there’s some resemblance, right? Anyway, Holloway’s been on a good win streak, and before running into Frankie Edgar, so was Swanson. Both dudes are solid kickboxers, but I think Swanson’s grappling is a little better, and that’s what’s going to give him the edge. Cub wins by second round GnP TKO.

Burnsy: This fight should be a blast. I’ll take the Blessed one’s winning streak to get him into the title talk.

Jared: This is a tough one for me, if only because Swanson is such an unpredictable fighter who’s a bit too flashy for his own good sometimes. Holloway is as solid a prospect as they come, but again, my gut says Swanson.

Middleweight – Ronaldo “Jacare” Souza vs Chris Camozzi

Jessica: I’m really disappointed that Yoel Romero pooped himself out of this fight, but whatever. Jacare destroyed Camozzi the first time around, Chris has a week to prepare, which is never a good sign. Souza wins with a first round submission.

Burnsy: Poor Hot Stepper. The guy gets the boot from the UFC after losing four in a row and now he gets a shot to come back by fighting on short notice against a guy who whooped his ass two years ago. No way Souza loses this fight.

Jared: On one hand, Chris Camozzi has the advantage of having nothing to lose-BWAHAHAHA.

This is a sanctioned murder.

Middleweight – Lyoto “The Dragon” Machida vs Luke Rockhold

Jessica: Handsome Man Fight! This is a tough one, both dudes are good strikers and good grapplers, but I think I’d give a very slight edge on the ground to Rockhold, since he does have a fair number of submission wins, but I’m not sure that he’ll be able to get the fight on the mat. Machida’s karate makes for a frustrating style to deal with, and I think Lyoto will manage to out-strike Luke and take a decision.

Burnsy: Rockhold has youth, size and a three-fight winning streak on his side. Machida is the Dragon, though, and he has Steven Seagal on his side. I’m going to take Rockhold out of sheer optimism.

Jared: Errrrrr. (*flips coin*)

Rockhold by reach advantage.

Performance of the Night

Jessica: Souza, Miller

Burnsy: Holloway, Cummins

Fight of the Night

Jessica: Machida vs Rockhold

Burnsy: Swanson vs Halloway