The start of October means that the beginning of the NBA season is right around the corner. Teams are in the middle of training camp right now, with the start of the preseason right on the horizon. And before you know it, it’ll be Oct. 22, and the New York Knicks will be in Boston for the Celtics’ ring night, and the months-long grind that is the 2024-25 NBA regular season will be underway.
Coming into the season, NBA fans have a pretty good idea of who the best players are going to be on a given team, and which players are going to be the most important if a team wants to go where they aspire to go. The much more difficult thing is identifying which players are going to break out, in large part because defining what a breakout means in the context of each specific team is different. Some need a guy to take a leap into stardom, some need a guy to become a star in a given role, some just need a guy who will patch over a gigantic hole and empower stars to be the best version of themselves.
Today, we decided to look at all 30 teams and identify which player is in line for a huge breakout. Again, that means something different on every team, but at the end of the day, these are the players who will be critical for their team’s success.
Atlanta Hawks: Jalen Johnson
Johnson made a big leap last year and he should be an even bigger part of the Hawks offense this season with Dejounte Murray gone from the roster. The super-athletic forward made major strides with his shot in ’23-24, knocking down 35.5 percent from deep, and if he can keep up that kind of shooting efficiency while taking on a bigger role as a secondary creator alongside Trae Young, he could be in for a monster season in Atlanta.
Orlando Magic: Anthony Black
The Magic bolstered their guard rotation this summer with the signing of Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, but with Markelle Fultz gone, they are going to need second-year guard Anthony Black to take on a bit of a bigger role behind Jalen Suggs and Cole Anthony at point guard. Black shot it well (39.4 percent from three) in limited action last year, but for a team in need of floor-spacing, he could make the Magic even more dynamic on offense if he can maintain that with an increased workload.
Miami Heat: Nikola Jovic
The Heat need their young guys to be good if they’re going to make any noise in the East this year. Jaime Jaquez Jr. is on the watch list for Most Improved Player for many, but Jovic might be more important to the Heat given their need for production from the four-spot. Jovic played pretty well in 46 appearances last year and had another good summer playing for Serbia in the Olympics. Now, there’s a chance for him to establish himself as the floor-spacing four the Heat need in their starting lineup.
Charlotte Hornets: Brandon Miller
Miller had a spectacular rookie season, he just happened to do so in a year with Victor Wembanyama and Chet Holmgren also on the ROY ballot. It’s not always easy backing up a big rookie year with a leap in year two, but if LaMelo Ball can stay healthy, I think there’s a chance for Miller to become a full-on monster in Charlotte with some high-level point guard play to help elevate him. I’m not particularly high on the Hornets as a team, but Miller has a chance to be in the All-Star conversation this in January.
Washington Wizards: Bilal Coulibaly
Even with the Wizards starting the season with Jordan Poole at point guard, Coulibaly is the guy Washington has to hope takes a leap this season. He showed flashes last year, but the Wizards are still trying to figure out if they have anyone that’s firmly part of their future core. The young Frenchman figures to get plenty of burn (as will rookie Bub Carrington), and if he can start to turn those flashes into sustained good play, Washington will feel a bit better about how it’s progressing.
Boston Celtics: Baylor Scheierman
The Celtics are running it back with everyone from the top 10 spots on their roster from a year ago, and a couple of those guys already broke out last year to become useful rotation players on a title team (see: Sam Hauser and Payton Pritchard). With their roles not likely expanding, I’ll go with the Celtics rookie as the best candidate for a “breakout” season, as Scheierman’s shooting could get him on the floor some and a rookie providing anything to the league’s best team would qualify in my eyes as a breakout performance.
Brooklyn Nets: Noah Clowney
On the opposite end of the spectrum from the Celtics are the Nets, where there are a lot of options, but I’ll go with the second-year forward out of Alabama. Clowney played just 23 games as a rookie, but shot it pretty well in a small sample and with the Nets fully in evaluation mode this year, he ought to get an opportunity to show his value as a versatile, floor-spacing big.
New York Knicks: Deuce McBride
The Knicks center rotation is their big question mark and perhaps at the end of the season we’re looking at Jericho Sims as the actual answer, but my choice here is at backup point guard. McBride had a very good postseason run for the banged up Knicks, and after New York thinned out some of their depth in the Karl-Anthony Towns trade by sending out Donte DiVincenzo, he figures to play an important role on the fully healthy squad this season with his ability to bring some scoring punch off the bench. Remember, he signed a 3-year, $13 million extension right after the OG Anunoby trade, which is pretty great value for New York.
Philadelphia 76ers: Ricky Council IV
The Sixers changed over a lot of their roster this summer and have gone veteran heavy in their quest to win a title. Even so, they will need to establish some wing depth and find some shooting from their bench unit, and the second-year man out of Arkansas provides an intriguing option. He only appeared in 32 games a year ago, but shot 37.5 percent from deep on a small sample and could get some looks as a down-the-bench option.
Toronto Raptors: Gradey Dick
The Raptors need Gradey Dick to be A Guy this year. Toronto was 27th in the NBA in three-point shooting a year ago and lost their best volume shooter, Gary Trent Jr., to free agency this summer. Dick should have an increased role for the Raptors this season, and they need him to become a big threat from beyond the arc in order to create some space for this offense.
Chicago Bulls: Ayo Dosunmu
The ’23-24 season wasn’t particularly fun in Chicago, but it did produce two positives in the form of leaps from Coby White and Ayo Dosunmu. White’s was the most notable, as he took over for the injured Zach LaVine and played the best basketball of his career. Dosunmu’s play was a bit quieter, but he likewise enjoyed the best season of his career. With DeMar DeRozan and Alex Caruso gone, there are some minutes on the wing to be had, and Dosunmu has a chance to build on his excellent season to cement himself as a quality player.
Cleveland Cavaliers: Evan Mobley
Mobley is already considered one of the best defenders in the NBA, but the hope with Kenny Atkinson arriving is that he takes a leap on the offensive end and puts himself in the All-Star conversation in the East. We saw late in the playoffs that he’s got more in the tank on that end of the floor, but the question is whether you can get that out of him while playing alongside Jarrett Allen. That’s the task of Atkinson, but if he can unlock Mobley as an offensive threat, that’s the way this Cavs team can take another step forward as a whole and go from a reliable regular season team to a potential contender in the East.
Detroit Pistons: Jaden Ivey
I’m still a believer in the former Purdue standout, and I think J.B. Bickerstaff’s success getting Darius Garland and Donovan Mitchell to play well together in Mitchell’s first year in Cleveland (before Garland’s injury issues) bodes well for getting more out of Ivey alongside Cade Cunningham. Having some adults on the roster on the wing should help as well, and even if this is a bit of a make it or break it year for Ivey, I feel like he’s due to take a leap forward under his third coaching staff in three years.
Milwaukee Bucks: AJ Green
The Bucks are going to be led by their veterans, but they really could use some positive impact from their younger bench unit this year. I think the guy most likely to crack Doc Rivers’ regular rotation is AJ Green, as Milwaukee needs some more floor spacing and he hit 40 percent of his threes (on three attempts per game) last year even in limited action.
Indiana Pacers: Bennedict Mathurin
The Pacers want to follow-up last year’s surprising run to the conference finals and prove that wasn’t just a fluke, and to do so they’re going to have to be even better given how the East got stronger around them. The player who has the most room to grow on this roster is Bennedict Mathurin, who had a good ’23-24 campaign before getting hurt and missing the playoffs. Mathurin finding a way to build on last year when he took strides in scoring efficiency to give the Pacers another dynamic on offense is the kind of thing they need to keep pace in the crowded East playoff picture.
Denver Nuggets: Julian Strawther
The Nuggets desperately need at least one of their young guys to step up, whether that’s Christian Braun, Julian Strawther Peyton Watson, Zeke Nnaji, Jalen Pickett, or Hunter Tyson. For the purposes of this exercise, we’ll go with Strawther, who flashed last year and will have a chance to show he can be a 3-and-D guy now that Kentavious Caldwell-Pope is gone.
Minnesota Timberwolves: Naz Reid
Easy one here, as Reid is an awesome player who is now going to have to scale up his game as a floor-spacing big man with Karl-Anthony Towns going to the New York Knicks. His game fits alongside Anthony Edwards and Rudy Gobert in a clearer way than that of Julius Randle, and we expect him to reward any and all faith the Wolves place in him.
Oklahoma City Thunder: Chet Holmgren
Another easy one, as Holmgren was awesome as a rookie on both ends of the floor and has room to get better as one of the faces of this era of Oklahoma City basketball. He should be an elite defensive player regardless, but we’re interested in seeing how his offensive game grows as he gets more opportunities, which should hopefully come this year. It’ll be tough to make it, but he could be in the All-Star conversation in the Western Conference.
Utah Jazz: Keyonte George
George was a rookie guard on a bad team last year, which is to say he struggled mightily — he shot 39.1 percent from the field. The flashes were good, though, and he came into the league with a ton of promise as a talented young guard who has the potential to be a starter in the NBA. He should have the ball in his hands a ton during his sophomore year, and if all goes right, he’ll take a big step forward.
Portland Trail Blazers: Scoot Henderson
You can basically copy and paste everything we said about George into here, as Henderson went through many of the same growing pains on a bad team. Still only 20, Henderson has plenty of time to develop (particularly as a shooter), but betting on his work ethic and feel should carry him a long way in the league.
Dallas Mavericks: Dereck Lively II
The idea of Lively is that he can, essentially, be a big man in the Tyson Chandler mold who protects the rim, can switch defensively, and finishes lobs from Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving. As a rookie, we saw that he’s more than capable of doing that, and during his second year in the league, it seems like a safe bet that Lively will build on all of that and establish himself as one of the best young bigs in the league.
Memphis Grizzlies: Zach Edey
He’s one of the only rookies on the list, but it’s for good reason. Not only is Edey an older rookie (he turned 22 in May), but his size, strength, rebounding, rim protection, and touch around the rim are all NBA ready. Perhaps most importantly, Memphis has a hole at center that he is going to get a chance to fill, and his ability to do that could be the difference between the Grizzlies being good and the Grizzlies being one of the best teams in the West.
New Orleans Pelicans: Trey Murphy III
Murphy is awesome, but figuring out his future is tricky. He’s slated to hit restricted free agency this offseason — will the famously cheap Pelicans give him the gigantic deal he deserves to bring him back? How is his future linked with Brandon Ingram’s? They’re interesting questions, but on the floor, Murphy just keeps getting better and better, and there’s no reason to think that will change this year.
San Antonio Spurs: Devin Vassell
All the talk this offseason in San Antonio is how their main veteran additions — Chris Paul and Harrison Barnes — should help Victor Wembanyama. But after being overextended the last few years, keep an eye out for how these guys help Vassell, too. With Paul at the point and Barnes providing another option on the wing, we think Vassell can thrive in a souped up 3-and-D role where he occasionally shows off his on-ball and playmaking chops.
Houston Rockets: Jabari Smith Jr
The Rockets have a bunch of potential options here, but there is just something about Smith as a huge forward who can really shoot the ball that we just can’t quit. He took a step forward as a scorer during his second year in the league, and at only 21 years old, there’s still plenty of time for him to keep developing his all-around game.
Phoenix Suns: Tyus Jones
The Suns are a very difficult team for this exercise since their team is largely made up of vets. Still, we’ll go with Jones, who is good and should give them some much-needed point guard help. We don’t think he’ll make an All-Star team or anything, but he could be in line for the best season of his career, which would provide a gigantic boost for Phoenix.
Los Angeles Lakers: Max Christie
The Lakers gave Christie a $32 million deal this offseason despite the fact that he’s never scored more than 14 points in a single game. We can assume, then, that the team believes he has a bright future, as his name always comes up when the Lakers talk about developing young talent. Him turning into a reliable wing option alongside Anthony Davis and LeBron James would make new coach JJ Redick’s life a whole lot easier.
Los Angeles Clippers: Terance Mann
The Clippers are kind of like the Suns in that they’re a team built around a bunch of guys with NBA experience. Still, with Paul George gone, Mann seems ripe for a bigger role, as he’s been in L.A. forever and has flashed time and time again during his time with the Clippers.
Golden State Warriors: Brandin Podziemski
Golden State clearly loves Podziemski, who was not moved this offseason in an effort to get more immediate help. His basketball IQ and willingness to do whatever it takes to support Steph Curry makes him an invaluable piece of the puzzle for the Warriors, and he’s primed to build on an impressive rookie year with an even better sophomore campaign as he slots into the starting lineup for Klay Thompson.
Sacramento Kings: Keegan Murray
For the Kings to go where they want to go this season, Murray has to be a perfect fit alongside their trio of De’Aaron Fox, Domantas Sabonis, and offseason acquisition DeMar DeRozan. His defense, in particular, will be crucial, as will knocking down the open looks those three generate for him.
